Fulham
Before you sling your'e raing post in the bin,do you have any thoughts on the 8.20 at aintree i'm thinking in particular about AEGEAN.

Appears to go better on Fast ground
If it carries on raining up there his chances could diminish
There are a couple of lesser animals in the field that could have an advantage on soft ground
Red Wine for one

Lets hope his class sees CB through

Boozer
I'm not going to get to excited about compton bolter,I agree the horse is c/f but the ground and the distance are enough to put me off today the class and form are quite apparent but with factors against.

I wont be backing him either
But I still like to see them win

Investor

8.20 Aintree

I make Aegean a fairly solid c/f, but as you'll have noted he missed virtually the whole of the last NH season, and one wonders why. Also, his record suggests he needs a run or two (but there again, so did Hug's Dancer's until last week!) Not quite for me, but fingers crossed if you back it.

Fulham

I went for Ballybrophy in the 8.20 at Aintree. Aegean is top on ability, but he has had a long lay-off and his record suggests he's likely to need the run after a break. Ballybrophy on the other hand has consistent recetn form with sound ability rating. The likely easing of the ground will suit him. Stone Cold has a poor wins to runs record, generally lacking a bit of pace at the business end. Rudolf Rassendyll has some fair form, but it's at shorter distances.

Rob

7.35 STRATFORD.
TOM'S PRIZE
I see it as the clear class/form horse, marked his card @ Aintree LTO. appears to satisfy all other criteria (including Nessies rather unique way of looking at the last 3 run %).
regards Bumper

Bumper

Tom's Prize has a lot going for it, having won at much higher than today's class. But one aspect that would trouble me is the weight, as he is unproven with today's. There again, there are those who post on this thread who worry about weight and those who don't.

Hi all,
Regarding the 2-20 at Newbury how could anyone look at this race and not select Sun On The Sea?
To my way of thinking she was that winner in this race as the form of her last two races should have shown.
She had everything in her favour ground, distance, best performance last time out and improving profile.
I know this is after the event but as the money is already in the pocket I just thought it was worth mentioning.
See you soon, Mike.

Mickeddy
not quite as simple as you make out r.e sun in the sand,I would have to agree that the horse added to the conflict as was posted earlier but to say the horse was the winner in the race to my mind is the wrong conclusion to come too,When taking the class and form of others in the race into account.

Mike

Well done with Sun on the Sea, and getting paid out is what it is all about. But that said, I rather agree with Investor.

It is not clear to me that SOTS had the best performance lto: Nasij, first time out this season beat the already raced SOTS by 2l, receiving a pound. Although today Nasij was 4lb worse off than last time, and from that angle SOTS might reasonably be expected to reverse placings, given that the 19 April race was Nasij's first run of the season she might have been expected to have come on the more, and had she won again I wouldn't have been surprised.

Investor,
Lets look at the 2-20.
Principals:- Miss Ivanhoe, Nofa's Magic, Sun On The Sea and Waldmark.
MI.- won 1m 54yds mdn at Nottingham(class 41)beating Phil Beta Kappa by 5L. SF100
NM.- 2.5L 2nd mdn at Newbury(class 59)1m 2f SF89
SOTS.- 4th 7f mdn(class 57) at Newbury SF96.
Was then upped in class and trip to 1m Listed race(class 185) Kempton showing the classic giveaway of improvement SF102. Finished with a flourish and obviously needing further. Held in high regard by connections.
W.- won 7f stakes on debut (class 70) Kempton just holding on to beat Halawanda shd.SF97
To me SOTS. had the form in the book and all indications were there to say that this race was her early target.
If I'm wrong in the way I read this is a matter of opinion but the result says I wasn't.
See you soon, Mike.

Mickeddy
if you look at Arrowsons post sun on the sea was a 2yro to follow at 3 With that method we have to watch for horses that are placed in races where it can capitalise,The horse decent form and had run a good 4th to Nasij lto but to my mind there were better class horses in the race,And it should have been left to run,If you check out the examples in systematic betting you will no doubt understand what i'm trying to convey,A little better.

Dizzy in the head has won well at Nottingham,
hope some of you were on

Beyond the Clouds is declared at Thirsk btw

well done everyone with all the winners!

INVESTOR,
I think this comes down to the age old argument of how you read form. I do believe that there are probably not many people who read form in the same way. The fact that you and I have both come to different conclusions about this race only serves to reinforce that.
It would be interesting to know what verdict everyone else, who looked at this race came to.
My bet is there would be a lot of differing opinions.
I think with VDW as long as you are happy with your interpretation of the method and it works for you(not all the time though) then that is what the great man tried to encourage.
This was only my second bet since Cheltenham on the flat, my first being Refuse to Bend in the 2000 gns. so I have waited a long time.
See you soon, Mike.

Mickeddy
Very well done mate,Enjoy your'e win,I was in know way contradicting your'e bet or strategy,i just thouhgt that Temperement was the order of the day in that particular race,That is purely my point of view.

Re SOTS, a wonderul example of a VDW style appraisal, and so much more sensible than trying to juggle with the weights. Nice to see some daylight on here!

INVESTOR, JOHND,
Cheers. No offence taken Investor.
See you soon, Mike.

mickeddy well done with your winner,

from my point of view seeing as you asked for views,

vdw's 2 yr old method - this would not have been a bet in this race because of other horses coming from higher class races lto, now whether anyone likes it or not VDW was specific.

From a normal (lol) VDW analysis of its last race there was nothing to suggest a likely reversal.

with nasij however, taking note of vdws comments that the good horses come out later over 7 and 8, the six furlong win was viewd as a negative in the context of this trip and thus he could not be supported.

Dont forget last week we were uming and aying would russian rhythm get a mile!

nasij will be interesting when back at a suitable distance