Easy to say but if one rejects retrogression by code how about Landing Light?

Barney,

The biggest weight difference I can think of is Canny Danny at Ascot, followed by 15 others. The likes of Soaf, Proven, Stray Shot, Zamandra, Sunset Cristo, and Baptism.

I have no doubt VDW thought weight was important, but that didn't stop him backing them if he thought they could carry it.

All I said was why do you think the weight stopped Far Lane? He was running on at the death, he didn't look a tried horse.

Don't understand why you are looking for bets, but not winning horses. Plus I thought VDW told us to look at form in detail. Every pro I have heard of keeps records.

Epiqlotis,

There are many reasons for a prep race. With this one, perhaps to see if the horse has learnt to settle under race conditions. Has he improved, is he as fit as expected, all under race conditions? Why this race? course doesn't suit, fair prize money for the placed horses. When he doesn't win OR unlikely to be raised.

Be Lucky

Barney
And that aswell LOL

Barney
I'm looking for reasons to have backed the horse,In the end i chose temperement and the horse won but like you have pointed out there are obvious reasons why it could have lost.

Thanks for the reply. I'm not convinced but will disparately consider your various suggestions. I was provoked in the first place by mention of gear as if this were clearly 'schooling in public'. One of the points of VDW race selection is that the horses are trying to win so if you are choosing the correct races there should be no horses entered for prep purposes.

There are a number of VDW's selections where the horse had had a 'Prep Race'; but others would rather manipulate the weights, etc, to make them fit their understanding of the method. Please do not ask me to elaborate, as the majority on this thread have their own answers.

Barney/Investor
Regarding Il Capitano, here we have a young horse, miles clear on class, where the trainer has proven, many times, his versatility with such horses. Given his last run, and his overall record, the decision to bet over this distance is down to the individual, and nothing else!

I'm not sure that we're talking about the same thing. One of the basic tenets in VDW race selection is that all the horses are trying, so if there is any horse that appears to be about to prep in the race we are considering for selection that alone should be enough to dismiss that race.

Epiglotis,

Not quite sure were you got that idea from. I know you haven't the VDW literature, but I think you will find VDW was well aware fair proportion of horse were not trying to win the race they were running in. If I can find it I will post it for you.

Be Lucky

Cool. This is one of the basic points at which VDW thinking seemed flawed to me. Instead of considering high prize money races in which all the horses are trying to win doesn't it make more sense to look lower in the scale where only a few have realistic expectations?

Epiglotis,

I think we are going over old ground here. Your flaw, is to me the foundation of the method. Good horses in good races, with the ability to win. The higher the class the less chance of a horse having a prep race, at least one that has a real chance of winning. Today's race may have been worth a few bob, but the ultimate aim is the top class. The lower down you go the more chance there is of an upset. Lower class horses are not as consistent, if you find one usually everyone else can see it as well, no value. You don't seem to like the top class races, they are my bread and butter. The higher the better, the horses stick to their profile far better than the rest. Ok things can go wrong, but not as often.

You really should have taken Fulham up on his offer. If you had the books, I think you would be surprised, and it could turn your ideas around. The basics are very logical and make a lot of sense.

I still don't get bored making money. Today I couldn't find a win bet, but using the logic made money.

Will look for the article tomorrow, if someone knows were to look it would be a big help.

Be Lucky

Thanks for the reply. I do understand this aspect of the theory and regardless of whether or not it suits my temperament, I (from my unread ignorance) question if it fits the word. I have never had any problem with the spirit of conceptual VDW but I find the written expression of the detail contradictory to the extent of being flawed. For me the biggest stumbling block to progress on this thread has always been the insistence on over literal adherance to the articles. When it comes down to it there probably was no VDW, but there are those who have understood finer points of form interpretation under the influence of the examples, spurious or not. This is why I have several times suggested that students off their own bat study all the races they deem suitable over any month or so and draw their own conclusions. The sanctifying of the "historical examples" and the necessity to read the holy tracts and such is where the bullshit takes over. I will never read the works because I know it isn't important, on top of which it's not my style I stopped reading nearly 20 years ago.

Epiglotis

I'm not clued up about time differences, and therefore have no idea what time of day it was in Japan when you wrote your post logged on the thread as 2.48am. But I hope you weren't at your brightest and most alert, because when you re-read it you'll surely be embarrassed.

As you know, there are some major differences between posters here: Guest's interpretation of VDW's approach, Mtoto's and Johnd's are very different albeit that sometimes the selections seem to be the same. But whatever the differences (and methodologically speaking they are major) all three (and numerous others) have found something of value in VDW's writings and have based at least part of their selection and betting strategies around it.

By contrast, you continue to be content with having read only those parts of VDW which have been posted on various boards, and other people's (often erroneous) views about what VDW did, or didn't, say. And you now go as far as to say "I will never read the works because I know it isn't important".

One can, of course, argue that horse racing itself and the associated betting are relatively trivial human activities. But insofar as your near-2000 posts to this board indicate that they are among your interests, and the not-insignificant proportion of them being to this particular thread indicate that VDW's approach as a topic is not without interest to you, your position on not reading the man's work seems perverse, and your comment last night to which I've drawn attention is at best ill-considered and, if seriously meant, mad.

[This message was edited by Fulham on May 16, 2003 at 06:55 AM.]

Fulham

2.55 - if you decide to bet, take note of Mr Malarkey.

2 wins with the blinkers, taken off for the high class race lto, now back on again for todays lower class.

this would be enough for me not to back against this horse

Horses being prepared for other opportunities?

Newbury
1:45
Cantor Sport Carnarvon Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) (3yo)
Winner £18,560.00

Stormont - surely totally outclassed by the rest of the field and cannot be a serious contender

I was about to include Court Masterpiece, but since it won at around the same class lto it may well be trying, at least until a furlong or two out. Predicted race comments "dwelt, held up last pair, switched to wide outside and effort 2f out, soon no progress, eased final furlong"


With Membership out of form I have Striking Ambition as the class/form horse and most likely winner.


2:20
Swettenham Stud Fillies' Trial Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) (3yo)
Winner £18,560.00

Phi Beta Kappa - a stunning on course record to date relative to this race

I have this between Nasij (question over distance) and Sun On The Sea (on the 3yo improver list having run a TS of 59 lto upped in class at Kempton - also question over distance) Generous forecast prices on these.


Hamilton 7.20

Compton Bolter marked his card for me lto and appears to be the class/form horse. (No I'm not worried about the weight!)

Anyone care to comment on his chances?

"Let the first few months go by"

How does this equate with betting lightly raced 2yo's that have not won on their fto starts as 3yo?

The artiicle ou refer to is on the 4th page of Racing In My System.
I am unable to reproduce it here owing to hardware limitations.

Andrew

Thanks. To my mind what you point out further strengthens the case for regarding Arzoo as not quite strong enough for a bet today.


Arowson

Today's weight would not be a problem for me re Compton Bolter whom, like you, I see as the c/f, and indeed the most likely winner.

The Handicap Book was bought for its Races To Come feature. As older readers will recall, it used to
give the following week’s cards and alphabetical list of horses with trainers’ entries enabling me to study well in advance. Horses could be entered in just one or any number of races and the eventually selected one, if indeed the horse ran, could prove most interesting as indeed could the decision not to run.

There were always horses that I knew, or judged, to be at peak and ready to win. How they were placed could give the game away. What a lot of punters don’t seem to appreciate is that in any race the majority’ of horses are not there to win, but to prepare them to win.

In most cases, irrespective of how many runners there are, only perhaps one, two or maybe three are ‘really candidates for consideration.

To be a successful punter you need to understand the things trainers ‘do ‘to bring horses to the boil. Some stables work in wayi that I’ll just call unorthodox and strange things seem to happen to their charges.

Most punters haven’t a clue what’s going on, but those who know the game can’t be fooled so easily. How many times have you witnessed a so- called ‘good thing’ come unstuck, only to find it in the winner’s enclosure next time, when nobody wanted to back it?

Arowson
In the 1.45 i agree with your c/f horse But i feel that avonbridge needed the run lto these 2 horses are also 1t and 2nd on speed/merit,The only possible option for me in this race would be a book.

In the 2.20 i also like Nasij but again with sun on the sea being 4lb better of for a 2lgs beating it all adds to the conflict Nasij will probably romp home but not with my money on it's back,A very tricky day i wish you all the best of luck whatever you chose to do.

what a lovely atmosphere on here the last few days with everyone mucking in.

Long may it continue.

Couldn't agree more Barney