Investor, one last time, I admit it and that`s the difference. Nothing more nothing less.

Anyone else who reads this will understand the message, whether they agree with it or not. That is conspicuously another difference

"horse racing consists of life-forms"

How generous, even the brain dead are included.

Here`s a little test: this means you I*v*s*o*

That should keep him quiet for a while.

lll
I see one of the other stooges is giving you some back up,all you need is epi and that's all 3 of you,Like i said before you love to give it but you can't take it,You and your cronies don't bother me in the slightest,The biggest problem is i suppose iv'e got to put up with another 3,000 posts that mean nothing.

Someone call?

Someone who`s not bothered in the slightest, Really?

Investor - you mean that VDW(CONTINUED) is going on for another 3000 posts?

investor, and then there were four.

In truth really Investor, you`re quite right, I`m not your problem.

Your real problem is that you`ve pitched your tent on the VDW thread. You know in all honesty it`s not just me or those who you think are my cronies/stooges who think you`re usless but there are others who think you`re a waste of space as well (scroll back and check it out, it`s there in black and white for you to read)

Also in black and white on this thread is the stark staring lack of support for you.

You`re a phuking laughing stock.

I didn`t really want to be the one to spell it out for you, for me it`s been mostly for fun.

Wise up Investor.

Why do I bother?
Fulham has to go back to Cheltenham, 2002, (Re-visited for the umpteenth time) to show how much grip Guest has on VDW.
If his method works, why can nobody operate it day in,day out, particularly its greatest exponent? And why does Fulham need to keep reurgitating one of his rare successes?
The answer is there, but no one can see it!
Horses such as Prominent King and Roushayd were not really out to win, but were being prepared to win.
If you cannot see that, there is little hope!

Fulham,

I have to agree about Pearlstone, but there are special circumstances there. Much like Dyscole, in the Love From Verona race.

The problem seems to be we don't know if many of the horses in the examples were really c/form horses or not. Guest seems happy to say Maceo was out of form or form not good enough. We will never know if VDW would have made him c/form and chosen to back another. Much like Swiss Maid and Cistus. Can you find a winner of it's last race with a higher ability rating that VDW passed over and called the selection the c/form horse? Not counting Pearlstone of course. I would have thought he would have thrown one in if it really is part of the method.

Hope you have a good break.

Investor,

When will you learn not to respond to the senseless abuse. They only do it because you respond. Ignore them.

Be Lucky

Fulham,

Zetland Gold Cup looks a race of interest today.

In view of the fact that VDW was clinical in his decision on in formness Solo Flight is out of form today.

Salute on the other hand looks consistent in good class this season. That said, he is up in class ( value ) today carrying 15 lbs more than last time and carrying more weight then proven with.

Given the weight factor the question has to be asked - is Salute a form horse the VDW way today ????

In my opinion given that Salute has already carried a decent weight in the Roseberry this season I will not be making him out of form on the weight factor.

The other question I ask myself. His run last time in lower class ( VALUE ) - should that be taken as a downturn ??

In my opinion his run last time given the opposition was a good run and all things considered Salute for me is in form for todays race and with Solo Flight out of form the VDW way Salute is 1st on class/form.

**** all that said and VDW method` aside I cannot dismiss Solo Flight today and he will remain very much in my calulations ****

Any comments you could give would be much appreciated,

One further point I should have noted is that all the horses are up in class/value today.

Cheers,

Mtoto

Two other examples of winners last time out with higher ability ratings than the horses VDW specifically named as c/fs are Patrick's Fair (ability rating 20) in the Desert Hero race (DH's ability rating was 11) and Peaty Sandy (ability rating 39) in the race won by Righthand Man (ability rating 33). (VDW only explictly named c/fs in about a sixth of his examples. There are numerous similar horses, such as Move Off (Battlement) and Smart Set (King's Ride) where the c/f was not named but can readily be identified.)


Johnd

You ask (of yourself) "why do I bother?" Let me tell you.

As someone who, by your own admission, has spent a lot of time studying at least some of the VDW examples WITHOUT getting anywhere near finding the "missing link", and indeed getting to the point where, again by your own admission, you had to give up betting, you can't stand the fact that Guest has achieved what you have failed to achieve, and that, through his generosity (and our hard work) at least another half a dozen people on this thread are making substantial progress down the same path. Or, more briefly, regularly proclaiming "it doesn't work", from your position of having failed to find what "it" is, is your way of dealing with your envy.

A more constructive (and profitable) way would be to re-visit the VDW examples in the light of the many illuminating posts by Guest on this thread, and start to make some real progress in understanding like, for example, Barney, Investor, Determined, Hedgehog, Much of a Muchness, Crock, Mimas, Graham Hepburn, me and, I'm sure, several others whose names don't come so immediately to mind.


Investor

If I may say so, Mtoto's recent advice to you is spot on. Occasionally it is necessary to respond, as I have above to Johnd, but overall there are more constructive (and of course profitable) ways of using our time.


Determined

I haven't looked at the Zetland, or indeed any other race, yet, but will be off to collect the Racing Post shortly and will post any thoughts on the Zetland later this morning.

[This message was edited by Fulham on May 26, 2003 at 06:32 AM.]

Fulham,

Looked forward to your comments on the Zetland.

The bookies are either feeling generous today or they know something we don`t, ie - the 1st 4 in the f/c of the Pricewise column do not have the form in the book ???



All,

Some cracking racing primarily at Sandown today. Thoughts on how Airwave is viewed from a VDW angle will be of interest.

Cheers,

2.30 Sandown - Henry 11 Stks

The top rated on ability namely Bangalore and Hugs Dancer cannot be considered in form for this race.

That brings in the 3rd rated namely Boreas. A disappointing seasonal debut albeit over an inadequate trip. Would VDW have ignored that run ? I suspect not but I will. That said, having ignored his debut effort would VDW have viewed his defeat by P.Punch on his last run in 2002 as a downturn ?? I believe he would and if that is the case Boreas is out of form ???

All that said, Boreas is CAPABLE of winning in this class and I cannot take the view he is out of form and I make him 1st on class/form.

Persian Punch, seasonal debut again was over an inadequate trip but it was clearly to sharpen him up for this. That run can be ignored. His win when beating Boreas at Newmarket last backend makes him a form horse and he is therefore 2nd on class/form.

Summary - in my opinion Boreas and Persian Punch are the class/form horses.

Is there a bet to be had ????

The fact that Fallon rides Boreas is a plus but 2 factors spring to mind, ie - (a) I remind myself of MTOTO`S comments from last October where he points out all Boreas`s win have been on flat galloping tracks which he doesn`t meet today and (b) the Ascot Gold Cup is the plan therefore will Boreas be fully tuned up today? I accept that statement maybe hard to accept given the prize on offer but it is a long season. Also, the trainer`s wife has suggested he may still need the run ??

Persian Punch loves the course and will put up his usual gutsy effort and may take the prize but a 10 years can he still do it ??

Conclusion - a no bet race but for sentiment I will be cheering on Hugs Dancer.

Any comments will be much appreciated,

Determined

The Zetland Gold Cup

I agree with you that top rated on ability, Solo Flight, cannot be regarded as a form horse today, though as we saw with Mine a few days ago these top raters can come back and win without warning.

As regards Salute, to my mind it would be a surprise if, having failed to win a class 131 carrying 8.10, he was able to win a class 371 carrying 15lb more.

Of the top six in the ability rating ranking, for me only Mystic Man is, arguably, a form horse today (there is a methodological question I have yet definitively to answer which prevents a 100% confident assertion re MM). Nevertheless, if this race was over a mile at the early 9s MMe would be a bet for me. However, he is trying 1m 2 for the first time, and his one effort at near this trip raises something of a doubt. And the danger is that if he doesn't get the trip MM is quite likely to finish out of the placings altogether. Further, one could argue, on the lines of Salute, that if he couldn't win a class 203 off 9st 3, why should he win a class 371 off 3lb higher? (Though I think there is a clear, VDW-based, answer to that, which Guest gave us in the context of Spirit Leader.)

I have Crow Wood as the 2nd c/f.

[This message was edited by Fulham on May 26, 2003 at 09:04 AM.]

Does that mean that you think Crow Wood will win and do you think it's a justifiable investment?

Determined

I think the long run in at Redcar (5f) will suit Solo Flight today - should give him enough time to get a run.

Have you spotted any horses in the race that will provide the good gallop that he needs?

Epiglotis

"Will" is, for me, far too strong.

A justifiable investment? I'm not sure how best to answer that. I won't be backing Crow Wood, for several reasons: the presence in the field of Mystic Man who may get 1m 2 now he is a year stronger and attempting it on a rather easier course than Carlisle; concern that CW is worse off at today's weights with Loweswater and Northside Lodge; a sense that, at 6s, he doesn't represent value (I'd want a double-figure price), etc.