Fulham,

Clearly I still have along way to go with the in formness aspect with regards VDW. Your comments on Salute do not surprise me and I would never question your decision with regards a horses in formness.

You have a powerful weapon in your armoury namely the fact that you have worked through all the VDW eg`s and for that you have my total respect.

As for me, until I have reached the same stage as you which could be a couple of years away I`ll have continue muddling through.

I accept Salute couldn`t win 2 lower value races and with more weight today I have to concede it looks a tall order for him but opposition wise I believe those 2 races had better horses in them when compared to what he`s faced today.

I may learn an expensive lesson today but at 12/1 I will be backing Salute. I will also be backing Solo Flight at 12/1 on the basis that he`ll have conditions to suit for the first time this season.

*** with regards Mystic Man, I like you feel the distance is wrong today ***

Thanks for your feedback. It is always appreciated.


Andrew,

Given the size of the field I`ll be very disappointed if there isn`t a true gallop.

Cheers,

That clarification is appreciated.

Fotunately, there are still some on this thread who will not have your arrant bullshit.
No wonder you reserve most of your wisdom until after the race! If Solo Flight is out of form, I am the King of China.
Do you ever actually read the form?

Amaoras at leicestrer? Anyone?

determined I have airthingy the likely winner but i would have thought he wanted further than six this year, Class may see him through though.

Determined

I question my judgements about in-formness, so there is no reason whatsoever why you shouldn't.

The fact is that, while many situations are very straightforward - ie one can say with absolute confidence X is a form horse in today's race, or Y isn't - many are not.

The most authoritative guidance we have is, of course, VDW's examples, and they contain the odd mistake (ege Bonny Gold's ability rating, though understandable given the Sporting Life's error in printing the form correctly for the race).

The next most authoritative guidance are Guest's c/fs, though like VDW Guest is human and therefore not infallible.

EVERYTHING else that I know of, including, most certainly, anything I post, should be viewed with caution; certainly not viewed as authoritative; and having value only insofar as it raises questions which are sometimes worthy of consideration.

With regard to Solo Flight and Salute, it is worth bearing in mind that the best estimate we have is that about 70% of races are won by horses that VDW would view as form horses. It is a reasonable bet, though I have no figures to support it, that a disproportionate number of the 30% of races won by horses not properly viewed as VDW form horses are won by those high in the ability rankings, like Mine the other day, for at least these have proven ability. It would thus not be earth-shattering if either top rated on ability Solo Flight, or 2nd top rated Salute, won today, but neither would it mean that either was a form horse for the race.

There are in fact two reasons why Salute is not a form horse: his last run and today's weight. Either would be sufficient.


Epiglotis

The fact that it is often difficult to be sure whether a particular horse should be viewed as a form horse or not is sometimes used as evidence of (at its most kindly) the difficulty in VDW or (at its most critical) that VDW has no fundamental and basically objective core. After all, as VDW said himself, once one knows the approach, we'll all have the same selections as he would. But palpably we don't.

VDW himself acknowledged the difficulty in this area when he wrote that "to isolate the "class/form" horse can often prove a tricky problem". All that you and other sceptics are seeing in the differences among those of us trying to understand and apply VDW's approach is evidence of incomplete understanding.

VDW himself once wrote, "Perhaps I am guilty of assuming most were more conversant with form than appears to be the case". It would have been more accurate if he had said that the conventional ways of reading form have many limitations and he had been showing us his (much better) way through his examples, and few if any had the ability to cotton on.

It is only by studying those examples, and especially those where VDW explicitly named the c/f and sometimes horses that he did not regard as form horses in the context of their races, that VDW's way can be deduced. Personally, I think that I could have studied them for a long time and made only very limited progress had it not been for the (albeit sometimes rather Delphic) clues that Guest has given us. And, whatever you may think, I am not unintelligent, having a PhD as well as basic and Master's degrees.

It is only those with a real sense of how innovative and effective VDW's approach is, and of the financial consequence of gaining a reasonable (though in my case an as yet far from perfect) grasp of that approach, who can truly understand the level of gratitude towards Guest that is sometimes evident in posts by the likes of Barney, Investor, Graham Hepburn and me.

What did I do to deserve that?

Fulham,

cracking analysis of the Zetland, clear as a bell.

Fulham,

Thanks for your quick reply. I had noted the 2 horses you mentioned. Can I ask. the fact that these 2 horses failed in the initial filter (consistency), could that not be the reason they were rejected? In fact it was these two horses that helped me think the c/form was ONLY a x check. Unfortunately a lot has been read into the form aspect, making them out of form, or form not good enough, when they MAY not have ever been considered.

I have been looking at the Zetland. I like Mystic Man, the course is ok (flat galloping). The slight worry is the distance, but the price (9/1) covers the doubt. I don't think this good, underrated trainer would be trying the distance if he was that worried.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
of course both you and fulham are right,I will try and bite my tongue i'll probably end up with a lisp though LOL.

Right then,The horses i will put up contain what i have been going on about for the past weeks,I,m not saying anything about bets or c/f and i won't try and claim anything after the event,These are purely for perusal and are the horses that i would consider for evaluation in there respective races.


utt 3.55
Able Native/Walter Plinge

leic 2.40
strathspey,Amoras and tropical coral

red 3.30
Persian Lightning,salute,Mystic man,Cat's Whiskers and Crow wood.

font 4.00
Barcelona,Punchy and Hawthorn prince

san 2.30
Mr Dinos,boreas,hugs Dancer,persian punch

san 3.05 Acclamation,Saddad and Airwave

san 3.40
Duke of modena/Colisay

Like i say these are the horses that would be evaluated in there races.

Just say what it is
and
IF it will compute
I will tell you what happend using this shall we say Filter for whatever type/number of races for the last 5/10 years

Investor

Hope you and yours are well and happy.

Investor, I had a look at Bobayaro, Laouen and Strong Flow and found a factor in common. Could I ask, assuming I have spotted a relevant factor, why Shardam and Hugo de Perro on the same day were not considered to be bets?

All the best
hedgehog

Epiglotis

Just consider it a goodwill gesture as I get into holiday mode.


Mtoto

As you know, I don't see consistency, ie within the three lowest rates from the first five/six in the forecast, as a necessary feature of a selection, and Righthand Man provides an obvious case in point. However, if it was only Patrick's Fair and Peaty Sandy which needed to be explained, I would have to agree that your suggestion would be a plausible one.

However, consistency does not cover Pearlstone or Homeson from the examples where VDW specifically named a c/f.

Also, there are many races where VDW did not name a c/f where, by the application of the class/form approach, one can be found, and where there are other winners last time out with higher ability ratings than the c/fs. (Obviously this evidence is weaker than that where VDW specifically named a c/f, but it does cover five sixths of the examples.) A horse that comes immediately to mind is Move Off (Battlement race).

Max just to say you are right and thanks.

Using that idea and I have backed checked it I dutched hugs dancer and MrDinos.

  SANDOWN, 26 May 2003, 2:30, Bonusprint Henry II Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) (4yo+),Winner £58,000.00,(2m78y)2m½f GD-FM, 11 Runners 

 Mr Dinos,.......................................................Form 1-5-1  (7**) sp lto 0 Av = 104k** , Ab = 21.8k  Score=3+2
 83%  115x 15f 1/2 7rs  Hy Lon  52K    (211 days)     (Chk Dist  + WIN **)    UP in class from 52K to 58k, BUT chk figures
 364%  109A 14f 5/9 8rs  GF Don  240K    (254 days)(g)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
 32%  115x 15f 1/10 5rs  Gd Vic  20K    (303 days)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Hugs Dancer,.......................................................Form 1-5-1  (7**)  sp lto 9/1  Av = 86k** , Ab = 56.2k  Score=5+4
 100%  104B 18f 1/½L 16rs  GF Chs  69K    (19 days)** (g)  (Down in dist  + WIN **)    ***DOWN in class from 69K to 58k,  No improv
 94%  98B 18f 5/4 36rs  Gd Nmk  69K    (219 days)  (Down in dist Unpl)
 162%  97B 13f 1/¾L 22rs  Gd Yor  120K    (278 days)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
   .................................. (74%)
 Boreas,.......................................................Form 1-2-5  (8**)  sp lto 12/1  Av = 49k, Ab = 44.3k  Score=3+4
 72%  90A 12f 5/19 6rs  GS Nmk  58K    (24 days)**    (UP in dist, lengths)    Same class 58K,  No improv
 48%  119A 16f 2/¾L 8rs  Gd Nmk  29K    (219 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 99%  119A 18f 1/1 8rs  GF Don  60K    (256 days)(g)  (Down in dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (45%)
 Persian Punch,.......................................................Form Pl-1-4  (15**)  sp lto 20/1  Av = 39k, Ab = 19k  Score=3+4
 26%  106A 13f 4/10 10rs**  Gd Nby  18K    (9 days)**    (UP in dist, lengths)    UP in class from 18K to 58k,  No improv
 47%  117A 16f 1/¾L 8rs  Gd Nmk  29K    (219 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
 111%  114x 20f Pl/12 16rs  Gd Lon  70K    (232 days)  (Down in dist lengths)
   .................................. (38%) 

I did not go with this one but it fits.

 SANDOWN, 26 May 2003, 3:05, Tripleprint Temple Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) (3yo+),Winner £58,000.00,(5f6y)5f GD-FM, 8 Runners 

 Airwave,.......................................................Form 4-1-1  (6**)  sp lto 11/2  Av = 81.7k** , Ab = 35.3k  Score=3+2
 100%  116A 6f 1/1 6rs  Fm Nmk  87K    (234 days)     (Chk Dist  + WIN **)    ***DOWN in class from 87K to 58k,  No improv
 15%  101A 6f 1/1 10rs  Gd Ayr  15K    (247 days)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
 136%  96B 6f 4/1 21rs  Gd Don  143K    (257 days)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
   .................................. (100%)
 Acclamation,.......................................................Form 1-3-3  (7**)  sp lto 7/2J  Av = 75k** , Ab = 52.7k  Score=3+4
 17%  112A 6f 3/1 14rs  Gd Nmk  16K    (220 days)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    UP in class from 16K to 58k,  No improv
 63%  111A 6f 3/2 11rs  GF Asc  58K    (240 days)(g)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
 155%  104B 6f 1/2 22rs  GF Don  151K    (621 days)(g)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (93%)
 Saddad,.......................................................Form 5-1-3  (9**)  sp lto 9/2  Av = 40k, Ab = 16.5k  Score=3+4
 19%  107A 5f 3/1 13rs  GF Don  18K    (256 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)    UP in class from 18K to 58k,  No improv
 33%  112A 5f 1/1 13rs  Gd Don  30K    (618 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
 69%  97A 6f 5/4 9rs**  Gd Yor  72K    (642 days)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
   .................................. (48%)  

I see, thanks. I'll have to re-read it, I thought it was a reprimand.

Hedgehog
The factor i talk of is evident in Shardam,And to be quite honest with you i don't know how i missed that one

With regard to hugo de perro,I would not have considered this horse.

Fulham
Have a good holiday my friend,And i hope you got a bit of e.w on crow Wood.

Investor

Thanks. But the 3.30 wasn't a betting race for me. (Indeed I was so engrossed in the football I forgot to watch it.) As a matter of interest, how did Mystic Man run - was it clear that the distance was a problem, or was he never in a good position?

Fulham
I must be quite honest with you,We,ve just got 2 Jack Russell pups and i was being eaten so i didn't see the race,Sorry mate.

Fulham

Mystic Man,

He didn't have the clearest of runs, but at the distance he was in with a chance. I think it is fair to say he didn't stay.

However all was not lost, I had short listed Airwave not expecting her to be 3/1 I wouldn't have backed her at 2/1 or under. 3/1 I couldn't resist.

Have a good one. I have another question for you when you return.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

Thanks. It will be interesting to watch where Mystic Man is placed next. Well done with Airwave. A spectacular performance according to the Post headline.

I'm not going 'til about 9.30am tomorrow, so if you want to pose your question this evening, I'll answer it if I can.