Nessie,

Well done yet again. I think picking teh right races must have a lot to do with it, for when I tried what I thought you were doing I ended up with my normal abject failure each time.

Good luck to you though if it works for you.

Oldtimer

Well done Nessie,the winners just keep on a coming.Looks like you have the method well sussed.

Max/Nessie,

have you done sandown tonight?

There is a shedfull!!

Nessie
As a matter of interest (dont worry about answering if you are not looking at the race)the 8.15 san tonight I have Danakil joint top with Afadan but lose the last named after % reduction when viewing recent form,next best Reveillez on about 85%.The fav only figures after reducing its total through recent form but I dont fancy that at around 6/4.All things considered I will most likely go with Reveillez as the speed figures suggest the other two need improvement.

Investor,

Yes I’m aware you’ve been banging on about all sorts of different things, however, as far as VDW goes a ‘form’ horse is a ‘form’ horse, end of story. If it doesn’t have form in the book relative to the race about to be run then it is not a form horse.

With that in mind may I ask, how do you come to the conclusion that a horse is in form, but not a ‘form’ horse in relation to the race being run?

Nessie,

Well done.

My view is that the same can be said about ability, it is race specific. This is one reason why I cant accept prize money won as being particularly expressive of ability. If a horse has only won one race but of very high value over 6f does this mean it should be considered a likely candidate if running in the Grand National?

Chaz
O.k i'll put it another way,I understand that horses are in and out of form,What i am trying to put across is the fact that the particular horses have the traits which i have explained in the past.Then i put up the horses (all of them)that have shall we say,Good form again i'm sure your aware that a horse can have form without being a form horse.Then from this individuals can conclude wether or not ther is a case for the horses put up.As a matter of interest,Did you see the horses i put up over the bank holiday.I did explain that i wouldn't go into c/f or try and claim anything a majority of the time this will trap the c/f so there,s no problem.

Epi,

Like any other rating, the ability rating, or the class of race judged by prize money is just a guide. Postmark, Split Second, or whatever, are just a number that gives us a guide to what a horse has achieved in the past, and from that we can use them to judge what might happen in the future. They are compiled along very different lines, and range in their complexity. Indeed I would say that out of the 3 I’ve just mentioned the ability rating is the simplest of them.

However, too say that there are now better ways of rating class is not, in my opinion true. As far as ratings are concerned things haven’t changed all that much. VDW was a user of the Haig Races and Racehorse Weekly, which gave a collateral form rating along the lines of the Postmark/Raceform handicap rating. This is where, again in my opinion, one of his OTHER ratings was derived from. They bear a lot of resemblance to his ratings and when it is borne in mind that the ratings contained in the annual form-book will differ in some instances to those published in the weekly publication, the ratings are extremely close, and in some instances exact. The most interesting part is that where he gave his rating alongside a selection it was ALWAYS top rated on form.

Investor,

I still can’t see how you putting up form horses will help Mtoto, if those horses wouldn’t have been considered form horses by VDW?

Thanks for the reply.

Chaz
It is the principal behind it that is important,Have a look at the horses i have put up and how often the winner has been trapped,I'm not going to go into the ins and outs with somebody who considers me a laughing stock i'm just trying to get my point across to mtoto.

Investor,

Crack on then.

laugh, laugh, laugh.

Max yes the 815 is as you say BUT now sort the list as per consitncy aveprize lto / ave 3 placings as you showed me.


You get

Danakil
Manoubi
Reveilz
Sargent Cecil.

look at the form it looks a threat?

Note the betting also

 Sergeant Cecil,.......................................................Form 2-2-10  (14**)  sp lto 4/1  Av = 6.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=6+2
 35%  53C 12f 10/20 11rs**  GF Nmk  9K    (41 days)(g)   (UP in dist, lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 9K to 5.7k  IMPROVING ***
 30%  81D 11f 2/shd 14rs  GF Wdr  5K    (50 days)(g)   (UP in dist, PLACED **)
 29%  79D 11f 2/1 17rs  GS Wdr  5K    (211 days)   (UP in dist, PLACED **)
   .................................. (37%)

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Manoubi, 4/1 High Point, 6/1 Reveillez, 7/1 Splash Out Again, 10/1 Danakil,  Sergeant Cecil, 14/1 Sudden Flight,  Triplemoon, 16/1 Mumbling,  Sphinx, 20/1 Afadan, 25/1 We'Ll Make It. 


 

When it all ties together like the tables I have put up they rerly loose but you need to work to find them and they dont come every day.
But the prices are very good.
VDW staking plan next!

Nessie,
I'm wanting to Download some webpages and process the info, Do I need any special software and is it easy to manipulate the Data.
Please Email me with details if it's not too hard to do.
Many Thanks.

Investor

Hope you and yours are well and happy (and that includes the puppies!)

Thanks for the reply. Can I press you on Hugo de Perro. What put you off this horse? As far as I can see it seems to fit a consistent pattern with the others mentioned.

As to today, what do you think of Satshoon in the last at Cartmel? This is another that seem to fit the pattern.

If you judge I haven't sussed the factors your looking at can I have a hint?

All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog
I hope you are sussing it mate,I'll have a goo look at Hugo de perro and get back to you.

Satshoon does have the traits in it's form,But it wouldn't be a betting race for me,in the 3.15 which is the race with the highest prize money the 2 for evaluation are catriona's choice and ivanoph,happy hunting mate.

Hedgehog
I can now understand where your coming from with hugo de perro,A bit of hidden form and again i didn't spot it so good for you,In the norm i like to see something in there last 3 runs prior to the race in question.

Hedgehog
i should have mentioned Flahive's first in the 3.15 cart,If you have spotted anything you will see it in those 3 horses,I won't be carrying on with this for various reasons but i will leave my e.mail

karensparkes1@ntlworld.com

Investor
looking at your email add would I be right in thinking you're a femail or is that just the wifes email address.No puns nor nothing intended,just curious!
Keep up your postings

Hey! Biotechnology!
Have you pinched my pint?