Nessie,

The short answer is VDW used ALL NH wins when compiling the ability rating for jump races. These days even bumper races are included. The horses history would be examined when the form aspect is examined.

I think the problem is are you trying to find out how VDW worked to follow his methods in detail? Or to find out which elements can be improved on?

I can see the ability rating (VDW's) can be used to gain an overall view of a horses class. I can't see what purpose it servers to judge the ability when the disciplines change. Many horse can't reach the same hights, hurdlers don't always become chaser. etc. In my every day betting I only use chasing form in chases. I may be wrong, but VDW didn't like using chase form in hurdle races. The question must be why use it in the ability rating then?

I like the basic ideas VDW put forward, a balance of class and form. Looking at form in a different way, etc. Most of all the taking notice of what it did in what class. I'm not happy with the relativity theory, the Roushayd method does away with that.

Don't know if any of this is of any help!

Be Lucky

Fulham/Guest
Thanks for the replies.

My email address is

tomfc@eircom.net

Guest
Your deliberate mistake with Island Sets ability rating,is interesting,and may have two areas of significance,one being that if it was correct,then Billet would not have been a bet,the other I will come back to later,

thnaks guest and mtoto

is it fair tosay tha thorses start as sprinters then middle distances then hurdles then chases.

this is in general of course. some are retired early to stud etc.

do you agree that chases are more difficult than hurdles so chasers are a btter class than hurdlers.

i ask this because now tha ti have sorted the ability ratings i think thsat they should be kept seprate. so hurdle chase and flat ratigns.

a good handicap chaser is better than a nov good hurdler.is an extreme example.

also the ratings are very much more acurate whe nlooking at 4.5k min prize penalty vlaue.


when i put ideas on here and it goes quiet I think im onto something.

so far

• consitency
  
• top rated and 1st or 2nd lto
  
• sp lto
  
• top ability (maybe sep ratings)
  
• lenghths won and lost by to be improvng
  
• top or 2nd top with pm*prize
  

thanks to all.

Nessie
It goes quiet for days sometimes.

Pipedreamer
With quiet storm the form was evident in the last 3 runs,R.e Billet the horse was left to run due to the distance and better class horses in the race.

My view is that hurdles are basicaly flat races with obstacles so the shorter distances are easier to solve, whereas chases are decided by jumping ability and general strength so longer distances are easier to solve.

Investor
Thanks for the reply,I will look again,I would imagine Factor Fifteen is one today

Nessie,

I wish it was as simple as that. Why do you think chases are better class than hurdles? The difference is in the jumping technique not the class. How many top hurdlers can't win a novice chase? How many poor hurdlers go on to be top chasers? Yes, a few horses win races on pure class, but that usually is in poor class races.

You say the rating are more accurate in £45 penalty value races. How do they work in much higher class races say £150 up wards?

consitency agreed I would also add improving

top rated and 1st or 2nd lto - Why?

sp lto - Why? Guest has already said most punters don't know what day of the week it is let alone know what will win. If you can find the clever money fair enough

top ability (maybe sep ratings) - Separate ratings definitely top ability that is in FORM

lenghths won and lost by to be improving - Only important to confirm class. Not for collateral form

top or 2nd top with pm*prize - ?

Just my thoughts many will not agree!!


Epi,

Those obstacles still have to be jumped, in good class races at speed.

Be Lucky

Guest,

I will start by asking you a question. It was raised by Fulham, but you or anyone else may have a view on it. I can understand why you have to go back to get the ability (class rating) why do you have to go back further than the last 3 runs to judge if a horse is in form? If a horse hasn't shown form in it's last 3 runs surely it is out of form?

The fact you mentioned Island Set WASN'T missed by me, and it did involve a little more checking. The order the horse were listed in did puzzle me, but I found something that didn't seem to confirm what I think you are suggesting. This is not to say some of the Roushayd selections aren't c/form horse, but I have seen nothing to support the theory they need to be (in the usual way) to be a selection. I do wonder how many horses beaten 9 lengths in a flat race you would consider to be in form today.

You say about VDW's instructions, but if you followed them to the letter.......

{Always mark off the four highest ability ratings and three most consistent from the forecast. In the illustrations this is done with an asterisk (•*).}

Were would that have left Prominent King? Still think the c/form is restricted to the likely contenders, those that pass the first filters.

Glad you weren't offended by my last post, it is hard to put things into words especially when you disagree about something.

Be Lucky

Mtoto - Firstly, I don't remember saying that more than the last 3 runs are required to establish form, though sometimes it is required to look further back. The last 3 are usually enough though.

Secondly, I'm still puzzled as to why you are hung up on Roushayds last run being the whole picture where form is concerned. The first thing to notice is that his last run at Epsom was in a much higher class race than Haydock so it shows neither one way or another. It does also depend on what conditions the horse was running under. The Epsom race was a handicap as as it happens Roushayd was carrying 9-9 compared to the winner Billet the class/form horse carrying 9-0. Even so, Roushayd could have finished down the field even further along with Vouchsafe and still be a form horse for Haydock.

Once again I have to say that it is the question of form and what it mean't to VDW that causes the misunderstanding. Form is simple in one respect but complex in others and the perms are endless just as the man said. People keep trying to tie it down to rules easily seen at a glance by everyone. This will never happen. What can happen though is that by studying all or most of VDWs form horses, one can start to learn the way in which he defined form for a race.

As to the old ability question, VDW went outside the top 3, top 4, fc horses,etc if none of the above qualified. Again it is all tied up with what VDW saw as form in a race. This is different to saying a horse is in form. This VDW demonstrated with his sportsmen analogies.

Fulham ..........I have followed this thread for entertainment, as I know nothing of VDW apart from what I used to read in the Handicap Book, while I do not have the time the method clearly demands. What first-hand experience of horses tells me, however, is that anyone prepared to take account of form shown five or six years ago is whinnying up the wrong tree.

I have noticed some talk on here about whether hurdle winners are easier to pick than chase winners.
Without a doubt, chase winners are easier to pick than hurdle winners (for me anyway).

The reason why?

I aren't saying because i want to be like Fulham/Guest and just ramble on and on about nothing and pretend I know it all.

I dont really mean that, I suppose, but when I read some of their vain ramblings, it just makes me feel like that.

I love genuine people and hate pretenders and charlatans. I first joined Gummy for enjoyment and to learn things if poss.

I dont deliberately come on this thread to cause aggro. Far from it. But every time I see these 2 ignoring and dodging people's honest and genuine questions it makes me so annoyed.

They have both dodged mine and many other peoples questions many, many times.

Thats probably why I thought they were the same person. Mtoto has told me they are not the same person, so, as I respect what he has to say, I believe him.

But to carry on with this "read all the examples and you might find the link/clue" gets my back up, and obviously many others.

Is this because they get kicks out of the answers they get (like mine now?). Perhaps.

Guest threw in WILD SPICE the other day as a bet. Allright it unseated or fell so we do not know whether it would have won. But how was that ever a bet VDW wise or any wise? It was an E beginners chase and was 28 points down on speed. (ok lets PRETEND speed doesn't matter, just for the crack). So speed aside, why was it a VDW bet?
It was not a class race, was it? So how was it considered?
It may be that Guest just threw it in for amusement. If that is not the case perhaps he will tell us why he thought it was a bet. I shall leave that for him to answer.

What particularly annoys me is that when i have talked about low class races previously, one tends to get answers in the form of "VDW would not have considered such a low class race".

The whole thing appears hypocritical to me.

On the one hand you have people all over Gummy's board naming winners (or trying to) before the event, whilst on this thread NOTHING EVER HAPPENS

Ok you have Investor who names first 3 in betting beforehand so what!

I shall tell everyone of you why this thread is addictive.
Its not because we are going to learn how to pick winners, not atall.

Its because people cannot wait to see what you come up with next.
Swish

Swish,

There is a VDW method that says take the highest class chase of the day. I'm not sure if you are meant to take the handicap or non hcp, or both. I can't find it at the moment to quote word for word.

I don't think it is meant to be used when there is only one poor class meeting. I wouldn't anyway. So in short I think it could be described as VDW type selection. I wouldn't have selected that horse, for me it fails in the basics. It wasn't consistent, it wasn't even in the 3 lowest for consistency. I would put money on it that Fulham didn't back it.

I really don't understand the scorn that is shown to Guest when he does pre post selections. Other people on other threads don't receive it. As I have said before I'm not interested in tips, but I am very interested in what other people select as VDW selections. It doesn't matter to me if they are posted before or after the race. If people don't want to use the selections as tips why does it matter to them? It's not the selection that is important, it's the method used to find it. Guest, and a few others have posted enough information, so anyone that is interested can follow the logic and have a think about it.

Some seem to think this thread need policing, I can't understand why. Do they really think we not know when someone is trying it on? If they are, who are they fooling, as far as I can see only themselves. Many say they are not interested in the selections to back them, but after what I see on other threads I doubt that. How many times do you see thank you **** I BACKED THAT.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
With all due respect to you, Guest picked WILD SPICE not FULHAM. FULHAM never picks anything.
If you cannot se that these 2 people are devious in the extreme, in the way they avoid all questions, well good luck to you.
Swish

Mtoto

You are right on both counts.

1) The chase method, involving taking the principal handicap and non-handicap chases (ie potentially two races a day) is outlined in the article "The VDW Approach" (18/1/86) and (slightly differently) in VDW's letter to Mr Spiers reprinted on pages 8/9 of "The Silver Lining".

2) I did not back Wild Spice - purely on price. As Mister Ed and Guest, respectively, said, it had stones in hand, and missed an opportunity. But what I call the "nuisance" factor often intervenes in such situations (20 fences to jump, for instance) and at 6/4, unless like Guest one uses a progressive staking system, for the kind of stake I deploy I've never found the required level of profit there.

The racing today looks rather more interesting than earlier this week.


Swish

I pick them all right, and as often as not discuss them pre racing with one or two others who regularly contribute to this thread, though this depends on time and other circumstances. (And I think, but wouldn't quite swear to it, that all the few winners I've referred to on the thread, like Champion Lodge, You'lneverwalkalone and Naahy, can be vouched for by other members, except for Spirit Leader, though as mentioned to Johnd, happily that was partly backed through my Tote account and the relevant statement is to hand as I type this.) But for reasons explained virtually from day 1 (and most recently at some length in response to a post from Gummy on a separate VDW thread), I don't choose to broadcast my selections on an essentially public forum which includes a section whose only pleasure in life seems to be in finding fault with others.

Oh, and incidentally, for the record, unlike you I've never sought money for my selections.

Have a nice day: if that is possible with your outlook on life.

[This message was edited by Fulham on June 12, 2003 at 06:39 AM.]

While you're here, how about posting the boxing day ability ratings?

Epiglotis

I already have - by email to all who have asked for them.

Okay. Perhaps one of those members will be good enough to post them both here and on Tuppenycat's thread.

Swish
I would like to clear one thing up,I put horses up for evaluation not the first 3 in the betting if they fall into that range then so beit incidently both BONUS and APPROACH at first glance look good still got some work to do though.