Guest,
Your post is of interest, how do you calculate the percentages from the numbers to get the total percentage figure?, asked barney this on the other thread but he has taken leave of us for moment.

Guest

You are indeed correct. I'd made an assumption about the top 3 and was wrong. Typically idiosyncratic of the approach though!

Rob

Walter - You will have seen that VDW obviously put store in his percentages relating to last 3 placings, though of course his basic adding up of these figures was flawed maths. However, if added and adjusted according to the totals for the entire field, it is possible to get a rough guide that equates to a proper percentage of the field.

Again this is not strictly perfect maths, but I have used basic figures relating to the consistency total and not various combinations. These are based on my own research of well over 120,000 runs and they are close enough being that all the percentages are based on averages covering all sorts of horses at all levels.

Note just one factor against both class/form horses today was consistency. Interesting that both the 2nd c/fs were consistent and both prevailed.

Other factors against both 1st and 2nd c/fs are there to see.

does anyone want to help me with my question about what

is the prize big enough


means please.

Whether you have two cells or two brains can one of you do the decent thing and answer Nessie`s question !

Guest & Crock are currently in the gallery.

Those two have legged it but Determined is here now.

Now he`s gone.

Dr Fulham, surely you will help.

Nessie - Most good horses have specific targets and are often geared towards winning a particular race or maybe a series of races. These will tend to be valuable races for obvious reasons, but it depends on the class of horse and at what level he has shown his form.

A horse who wins a valuable handicap and is then dropped a long way in class has to be carefully weighed up against the opposition. The race might be worth a lot less than last time, but is the opposition any weaker?

There is no all encompassing answer. It's a matter of weighing things up from horse to horse.

Every situation is different. For example, in VDWs Roushayd examples he came across Ile De Chypre who unseated in the KG V hcp at Ascot when in front, then finished 2nd in 2 higher class handicaps getting called a few names along the way. He was then dropped to a maiden and won at 8/13 fav. Was the prize big enough? Well at that stage after so many near misses, the sensible thing was to let the horse get his head in front in an easy race which they did. The prize was immaterial in this case and the trainers intentions were obvious given the class and form.

Well done Guest,

Together with temperament perhaps tenacity is also a good bed fellow.

guest,fulham, mtoto, investor,all, after some time i have managed to get hold of a copy of the form book 1984/5 nh season where quite a few of van der wheils examples are in, wing and a prayer, beat the retreat, cool gin,righthand man, stray shot, zamaranda,,, could other members, state whether these were class/form horses, what hidden factors were present, investor mentioned ..last three runs,

As much as I admire several posters on this forum(VDW)primarily guest,nessie,determined,fulham,max,mtoto,jib,johnd & III although not for his knowledge,but more for his humour & demanour so many others have forgotten what to me is the most fundamentals of VDW, mainly temprament(guest you go on about it more than any other-respect), but what about the performance of an animal over the last two furlongs-something not many peeps ever mention.I very rarely post on this particular thread as to my mind its to full of backbiting, however as regards temprament if you look at VDW's predominate postings they are all for higher class races.This to me is what temprament is all about-exposed form which can be evaluated more easily than H'cap form.So many horses can win listed,Gp3 + even Gp2-but if you go over their form you can see how many win Gp1's(weak ones excepted)they win.I truely think there are only 30 races after June worth considering as PURE VDW events and of which 8-12 usually are of genuine interest.During the N.H season I would say there are roughly the same amount of races worth considering.I make this statement as one who profits from these events, although as I like a bet in big meetings these are not my only investments.If I was to forget about any other races bar the ones I am ranting about I would be heavily up at the end of the season.
After evaluating the form the we are usually left with three or four, but it is only in this select group of races that we can genuinely find a horse which can quicken at the end of a race more so than its fellow peers.If we could grip this angle(and from what I have read here there are to many peeps with a gambling compulsion)we could really do something financially.It is only when EVERYTHING comes together in the best classes of racing that VDW and his teachings come to the fore.
Investor:
You have made some decent postings and I am in no way jumping on you, but I was always taught that if you have nothing of importance to say then say nothing.It seems to me you set yourself up for so much grief when you could get a much easier ride by letting a lot fly over you.The horses you put up are there or thereabouts and fair play to you keep them coming, but you cant bet everyday and claim you make profit as the bullets for your gun arent there.Ease off a little and concentrate your mind on the better events and I believe you might just get there.

BT

Perhaps I could refer you to the final sentence of paragraph 9 of VDW's article of 13/3/80. Prior to the publication of that article, VDW had given 37 examples, of which 21 were of handicaps (57%). Intermittently over the next seventeen years he gave another 87 examples, of which 51 were handicaps (59%).


Grundy

All six of the horses you named were explicitly (and correctly) stated by VDW to be the class/form horses in their races.

Bio
I do o.k,Thanks for your thoughts i will bear them in mind.

Morning all,

2.00 YORK - conflict ???

The bare ability ratings put both Crow Wood and Cats Whiskers well down the order however how many of those rated higher can be classed as in form the VDW way for todays race ?

With my novice head on I make CW and CW the class/form horses. Both are on the improve and with 9/2 available on both a book could be had.

That said, the very fact that Ladbrokes have Cats Whiskers at 9/2 ( much higher than the rest ) suggests to me that caution maybe the order of the day.

Add to that the clear top rated on ability Albuhera who whilst a non form horse today may just spring a surprise. Two runs early in the season after a lengthy lay off then put away for 77 days to tune him up. Stable in form, horse will love the track, etc and can carry weight in higher class than todays race.

In summary - the 2 consistent and improving horses namely Crow Wood and Cats Whiskers may go close but I cannot confidently rule out Albuhera so a race of conflict and one to watch.

**** I`d be very interested how those well versed in the methodology read this race ( AFTERWARDS IF NECESSARY ).

quote:

---

Originally posted by john in brasil:
BT,You are the first VDWer to admit that it only really provides one bet a month. Thank you! Well done !!If you could give us a recent example by which to measure the level of supremacy to wait for, I am sure you would provide a huge service not only to VDW methodology but to this forum as a whole. You new members are turning out to be lifesavers. I am very glad that the forum had the initiative to open its doors to you all.

---

I have had three large bets this season and they are as follows 1st Moon Ballad 11/4-Nad al Sheba 1st 4/1 Refuse to bend-Guineas and one which I shouldent have bet as the class was too low Dumaran at Hamilton

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Fulham:
BT

Perhaps I could refer you to the final sentence of paragraph 9 of VDW's article of 13/3/80. Prior to the publication of that article, VDW had given 37 examples, of which 21 were of handicaps (57%). Intermittently over the next seventeen years he gave another 87 examples, of which 51 were handicaps (59%).

Yes,but all better class races initially,then when he started getting paid for his correspondence lesser class races creeped into his writings.There is nothing wrong in selecting H'caps as long as they are quality ones,in my view(my view)

BT

You wrote "... all better class races initially". Hardly, check the facts. From VDW's first twenty examples, eg Rifle Brigade, Battlement, Uther Pendragon, Gaffer.


Determined

I agree with your c/f and 2nd c/f in the 2.00 York.