Why?

Fulham,
Re Brother Joe,
You have posted nothing that was not available to anyone who read the form. Brother Joe is a talented but not necessarily genuine animal who makes mistakes. Spotlight or any other analysis column in the RP would have made the same points.

Your condescension about only wanting to post in a forum that would have the right ambience and contains people who are prepared to learn is unwarranted.

If you look at JiBs posting on his Sires View thread concerning Kris Kins beating of Big Bad Bob (posted before the off) at Chester then I think that you will find the type of shared learning thread you wish that this could be. A detailed and scientific approach outside the VDW system freely offered and graciously received by many members.

For my part I enjoy posting my selections, I never feel under pressure when they don't come off because after all it is a game of chance. I have never yet had a word of criticism concerning my selections but often congratulations when a decent priced one has come off.

It seems to me that your approach is completely at odds with the spirit of the board.

Why can you not accept the fun of the tipping challenge, the need to post 6 a fortnight would probably exceed your number of bets. You could always throw in a couple of losers to make the numbers up.
Alf

Alf

I don't work at analysing horse races, or bet, for fun. Good luck to those who enjoy the tipping competition, but each to his (or her) own.

re Brother Joe, the only VDW-specific element was the fact (in my view) that he was the c/f. All I was doing in the other element of comment to a colleague was to specify why that particular c/f was not a serious bet for me.

As for where I post, it's merely a matter of horses for courses, and courses change over time.

JohnD - The approach is not any where near as long and as subjective as you suggest and I think you have misunderstood much of it.

Fulham uses much the same approach as myself, as do others I know of, and we agree on the class/forms much more often than not.

As I say, from what you have written it doesn't sound like you have grasped the idea of how to use VDWs process, but I can assure you it runs through all exposed form examples he gave.

Let's look at yesterdays Listed Race at Newbury over 10f. The race was class 185 and most of the field were dropping in race class.

Top on ability was Imtiyaz (205). Won a listed race last year on turf at York class 216 and later beaten class 212 and 171 before rested. Came back at Nad Al Sheba in March winning class 356 race with no group or listed status beating a sprinter Mugharreb (96) over a mile. Then ran 8th of 12 in much higher class over 9f group 1, prominent and 4th into the straight but weakened. Then dropped in class in May at Longchamp, though still group 1 over 9f soft going and again was close up in 2nd before coming under pressure 2f out and lost place finishing 6th of 8 behind highly rated Falbrav.

Despite dropping in class, this horse only won a 3 runner event making all last year in this country and has shown little in his last 2 runs albeit tougher company. The win at NAS was against a low rated sprinter and the race value was false when you consider the lack of status and opposition for the race. Not a form horse and not consistent either.

2nd on ability was Mubtaker (190) who was one of the consistent horses also. Ran just twice last year coming out at the July Newmarket meeting over 1m 4f group 2 class 464 just beaten by Millenary (654) level weights, always prominent and led over 1f out before headed near finish in a fast time.

Then went to Newbury over extended 1m 5f group 2 class 377 winning readily at 11/8 fav beating the 5/2 2nd fav High Pitched (124). Led inside final 3f.

The previous season he won 3 listed races, twice over 1m 4f and once over 1m 2f. His final race in November was dropped to class 138 and odds on 8/13 fav but beaten just over 6 lengths giving 7lb to the first two High Pitched (110) and Head In The Clouds (193). Mubtaker was rated 143 at the time.

So it is easy to see that he progressed very well from 4 to 5 and showed good form in both races that were well above this class, both race and opposition wise. A form horse and the class/form horse.

If we look at Binary File (113), his last run was class 290 listed hcp at Ascot over 10f at 7/1. He carried 2lb more than the winner Times Eye (51) and was beaten over 7 lengths. The winner had been running in better class, though had only won a maiden race beforehand.

Previously Binary File was beaten easily when 2nd of 4 in a low rated contest at Nottingham over a mile class 95 won by Dubai Destination coming back from a lay off rated 327 and getting 10lbs and 2/5 fav.

Last year BF won a listed race over 9f at York class 212 at levels beating Bourgainville (55) and Desert Deer (110) at 11/2. That was 1 win from 6 runs.

So, a form horse? Not VDWs way, yet why was he backed so heavily when we had the class/form horse, a gp2 winner with no penalty over a course he likes, in fact won his best race on at 11/8f ?

Yes, there are subjective elements in there, but used methodically, people will come up with the same c/fs more often than not. Obviously I have left certain points to ponder for those wanting to go further than the bare bones. But even on a basic level, there was no way Binary File had anything on Mubtaker yesterday.

Nice one!
Your first line says I don't understand your approach, then you give us your long-winded analysis of a race which employs an almost identical format to the one set out.
'Nuff said!

Johnd,

I had decided to just leave this forum, but while you keep making these wild accusations I feel I should make one last attempt to tell you, you are very wrong.

Fulham is one of the most helpful people there has been on this thread. I have never understood your attitude to him. Why do you think he should have to prove himself to you or anyone else? All I wanted him (and others) to do was at ANY time suggest the horses they think may have been VDW selections. If they want to go into any more detail that is a bonus.

He must despair of me. I don't and never will think weight makes a difference to the result of a race. I accept VDW may have thought it does, and I have to include that fact when I examine the old examples. I think too much is read into this, but Fulham is never rude or abusive. He just answers all, and every question put to him.

You say he has encouraged people to leave this thread that is an outright untruth. in fact the opposite is the truth. Have you ever stopped and wondered why they left? I'm not sure they have gone for good, more they are waiting for the nonsense to go. There are a few that want the thread to go away, strangely they appear to be the ones that are making the most noise now it has dropped to a trickle.

Why should people want to discuses something in public that attracts the likes of the rude man from up north? Why should I, or others answer questions from people that can't be bother to buy the books, or even read what is written on the thread? They like you, then get abusive, why? Do you think that will get you the answers? It doesn't work with me, I just won't bother to acknowledge them.

In short I don't give a monkey's what others think about VDW, if they don't like it, don't read it. I have tried to help others along the way, so I feel I am compatible with the ideals of the forum as is Fulham. Why the hell should he, or anyone, help the lazy or plain stupid?

You had decided to leave the forum had you? Yet every night of the week you are lurking around at this time. If you are going to leave then leave, instead of posting crap like the above. As far as the stupid are concerned, you have shown yourself over the last couple of weeks to be one of the most stupid people I have never met. I have only ever come in contact with two really thick people in my life and you are both of them.

Since when did you run this forum? I'm a member with the same rights as you. If I want to read what other sensible people have to say I don't have to ask the likes of you.

What about my posting is crap, it can't be anything to with the rude man from up north that is surely beyond dispute. I may be stupid but that is in your eyes and that isn't worth much. Anything you don't agree with is crap or stupid. Strange the only analogy you could think of for an irritant was dog's shit, that says a lot about you.

JohnD - Hmm, long winded? I suppose your selection process takes a minute or two. Still we will never ever know, John because you have never given even an inkling as to what you are looking for. And still no reason from you as to why you selected Binary File.

By the way, I did say you misunderstood the process, but you had laid out the basics. What I don't get with you and others, is why do you think VDW imparted a factor to us if we were to ignore it?

His first letter mentions horses who were beaten, weight, sps, courses, opposition, the difference between hcps and conditions races,etc. Yet you say weight doesn't matter, the markets don't matter, the opposition doesn't matter. Just how the hell are you gauging form John? With a pair of dice?

Just one more point, John, because you really take the biscuit mate. You slag off others, for supposedly destroying the VDW thread, yet if it was left to you to offer help to those wanting to learn VDWs approach they would get a big fat zero.

You think you have exposed that which certain people do not want exposed. Not true, because there is more to it than just figures. In fact you have demonstrated exactly why no one should be worried because having the tools is one thing, knowing how to use them is another.

You're showing your ignorance again mtoto. No one has said you had to ask me, what you did write was,
"I had decided to just leave this forum".
And what I replied was,
"If you are going to leave then leave".
What was it that changed your mind, was it the posts of sensible people that have improved immensely since you stopped posting? You're an argumentative son of a bitch I'll give you that.

Ok, own up, which bloody half wit changed Mtoto`s mind ?

Mtoto

Thank you for your comment, but in the interests of accuracy I have to say that your point about me answering "every question put to him", while true until 12 July, is no longer the case.

As you may have noticed, JIB and I often differ but, as a general proposition, I agree with the view he expressed in the second sentence of his post of 12.54pm, 12 July, on the "Slagging and Drunkards" thread. Perhaps because I did not make that explicit at the time, you and others may have missed the full implications of the second para. of my post of 6.20pm on the same day on this thread.

Fulham,
How much weight do you give to the race readers comments about the performance of the c/f selection in the last two furlongs lto?
Alf

I am disappointed with you. At first I thought you were being a little short-sighted regarding Fulham. Now I see you are totally blind.

Guest
A few points from Saturday's race that were missing from your appraisal.
Mubtaker had the best form in the race, a fact that needed the skill of a 9 year old to establish. Now consider the rest.
Here was a horse, returning from injury, running over a distance well short of that which he had shown his best form at, and in a class of race that would do little to enhance his value.
He also had a fairly obvious target for next month in a race he had won last year, and his trainer stated, before the race, that he would come on for the run.
As it turned out, his class, and a strong pace, enabled him to prevail. That does not alter the fact that more of his type lose than win in similar circumstances, of which there are hundreds of examples each season.
It is also worth noting that Binary file, who had also shown progressive form, had, in his last race the previous season, finished 2nd in a good G2 race, run in conditions that were against him.
As it was, he was outclassed on the day, that does not make regular support for the Mubtakers of this world a sound strategy.
Congratulations on your win.

I would entirely agree that it is the reading of form that is referred to in that paragraph, and, whichever way the initial process is carried out, the most vital part of any appraisal.

Alf

It really depends on what I'm looking for. For example, if there is a question about distance in my mind, a comment may indicate that lto the horse was either comfortable at, or discomforted by, the distance of that race, which might bear on the evaluation of the current race. But I wouldn't class such comments as of great importance in the scheme of things, certainly compared with wholly or nearly wholly objective considerations, such as the ability ratings and the in-formness and capability issues.

John - Two things. The horse went down very narrowly in a much better race after a similiar lay off last year, so it was a fact that he could run a race after a long break. He may have been injured, but he wouldn't be back on the track at his age if he wasn't fully recovered.

Secondly, you are overlooking the point that regardless of what you think trainers and horses were up to, Mubtaker was the class/form horse and it is this process that you don't get. It is the same process that shows the 6 Boxing day examples as the class/form horse. Ever tried it on them? or do you just think it all coincindence?

Binary File wasn't even 2nd c/f, this was Parasol. Can I ask what was progressive or even good about Binary Files two runs this year?

In short, unless you watched Binary Files' nightmare run in that race, you wouldn't know.

John, do you not realise that most punters who do more than browse their daily papers cards, do the same thing day in day out, making excuses for with bad luck in running or piling on these "unlucky" horses next time out?

It's one thing excusing horses who were outclassed or maybe not ready, but it is a one way ticket to the poor house to do what every other punter throughout the country is doing. That is, believing what their eye appears to tell them about a horse race instead of sticking to what actually happened at the finish.

Again today we see a 16/1 shot travel well in a race and grab 2nd only to go off red hot fav next time in much higher class and get beaten.