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Member
Posted
Epi.
Surely after Guest's last post on this thread you can now give Boozer more than a patronising one liner.
 
Posts: 54 | Registered: November 27, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
I'm game, which was the patronising one-liner you had in mind?
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
So, we don't believe what our eyes tell us, we don't believe what the form comments say, we just switch off our TV's, cancel the Racing Post, and stick to reading the tea leaves.
If this thread is ever to achieve its purpose, it must forget the scoring of points, and discuss races in the real world. Until it does, it will always attract the poseurs and the sceptics.
The ball is in your court!
 
Posts: 1512 | Registered: August 20, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Guest
You can hardly sneer at punters who believe what their "eyes appear to tell them instead of sticking to what actually happened at the finish" yet suggest that Hiccups was intentionally restrained when your losing selection yet not when winning later in the same week. That was in your post of 9.11pm on July 19, in which you also pointed out that four other recent selections made by you won next time out. That sounds suspiciously like the betting shop regular whose losers are always down to pilot error or skullduggery.
 
Posts: 49 | Registered: May 20, 2003Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Arkle - I clearly said that i rarely see ill luck or non trying elements in my bets. But, every now & then I note something that doesn't seem to get picked up by the press,etc. Binary File was noted as having a rough run at Ascot, but even so his form wasn't good enough to beat Mubtaker. It's all well and good rough races or fast finishers being noted, but what about the class and form elements? One of my bets last week was selected solely on the form book evidence, I had never recalled seeing it race. This is something many seem to forget, in VDWs heyday there was little racing on tv other than the very best tracks and meetings and you couldn't even pop down to your bookies to watch SIS. VDW was going on the form book alone, using racereaders comments as a guide, but not the source of his selections.

It makes me smile everytime I hear a tv pundit say, usually about a maiden race at Newmarket, "record this race for the future on your video." It's not quite as funny as the term "value" which is now on a par with VDWs favourite misunderstood phrase "form". The amount of times you will hear the "experts" say "so & so is a bit of value against the fav" only to see the fav win.

VDW aside, anyone wanting to prevail at backing racehorses for profit could do worse than noting these experts to see what won't win. There is a simple rule, for those that want one, and that is leave favs alone that are shorter than their last sp, especially if they didn't win last time. Horses who win when expected have a habit of repeating the trick. Wink

The point with Hiccups is that I posted my observation after the race midweek and before the race on Friday. The others I was merely noting that I had misjudged them on the day I backed them. There is rarely bad luck in punting, just bad choices of which I am guilty of also.
 
Posts: 748 | Registered: February 18, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    Guest, you say to take care when the fav is at a price shorter than its last run, especially if it didnt win.
    Am I to understand that you believe the fav to be good value if it is going up in class from its previous race, particularly if it won lto?
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
JIB - No, I am always wary of horses that are significantly shorter than a previous run, especially if it is up and class. Again it depends on the opposition, etc. But by & large, these horses have a bad record.

I have done quite a lot of research into this and here are some figures that may interest.

Winners who were Fav win 25% of their next starts.

Winners who go up in class and are Fav in that higher class win 37% of those races.

A look at the last time out winners & their sp compared to their next run is interesting. Horses who won last time at 20/1 or higher win just 11% of the time next run. As you go shorter in last time winners sps, the percentage increases as you would expect, but there are some strange blips on the curve.

10/1 - 19/1 winners LTO win 14% next start.
11/2 - 9/1 winnners LTO win 15% next start.
9/2-5/1 winners LTO win 18% next start.
100/30 - 4/1 winners LTO win 18% next start.
3/1 21%
11/4 18%
5/2 23%
9/4 20%
2/1 22%
15/8 27%
7/4 18%
13/8 26%
6/4 24%
11/8 24%
5/4 21%
6/5 17%
11/10 18%
evs 30%
10/11 40%
9/10 21%
5/6 17%
4/5 26%
8/11 45%
4/6 32%
8/13 32%
8/15 43%
4/7 15%
1/2 51%
2/5 36%
1/3 40%
4/11 30%
2/7 32%
1/4or shorter 35%

At first this strange blips don't make sense, but if you look at the areas they appear in the answers are logical.
 
Posts: 748 | Registered: February 18, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
How big a sample are you using for the above stats
and are the statistics taken from all races or selected

Depending on how the term drop in class is established
It would be interesting to see how fav's for big races fared (win or lose) when dropped in class
Logically the same criteria that made them fav for the big race has to be even more relevant in the lower class race less competitive race
 
Posts: 690 | Registered: August 19, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    Guest,
    Thank you for your answer. I would like to extend my question though.
    You say that when a winner lto is upped in class and made fav it has a 37% probability of winning again. Is that 37% irrespective of whether its sp is larger or smaller than the previous one?
    Like Boozer I am v curious about the authority of these statistics. The blips you demonstrate would only be significant if the sample was large. And finally what definition are you using for 'upped in class'?
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Boozer - It's 2 years data flat & jumps.

The 37% of favs was using only the criteria mentioned IE it won last time, was up in race class (value) and was fav for that higher value race.
 
Posts: 748 | Registered: February 18, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Picture of biotechnology
Posted
As to the ambiance of the thread re selections, I suggest that you might read through some of the posts aimed at Guest when he started posting selections (I'm talking about March 2002 onwards, not the "80%" thread), and then consider the "tone" which the likes of Epiglotis, JIB, Jimmy, Johnd and Biotechnology have used in posts to me (not that you can consider the most offensive, as they've been deleted by Gummy).POSTED BY FULHAM

Fulham
When you talk about ambiance should we not replace that word with arse licking
I can remember not so long ago I felt like you although in another sphere.
I am around 12 stone and 5"7 tall and we used to have arm wrestling competitions in our local pubs.I knew I was strong but when aligned with the proper technique taught to me by a joiner on a building site started beating all the bears and monsters in the pubs winning a right few quid into the bargain as most peeps always bet on the bigger men.When we went into a large pub in Dundee(The Three Barrels) before a football match there were two gents having an arm wrestle and after the bigger man won, one of my m8s challenged him and pointed to me.I wasnt really into going wrestling in a City 70 mls from home with a bunch of strangers in a tough working mans boozer but was egged on by the rest of the boys.I won 3x against him.
Then followed others challenging me for money and I beat another 7 men before aching and exhausted was beaten by a former pro boxer,however £40 heavier in the pocket(some pals with more than that) and getting the bad vibes we quickly made our exit.
This tale was all around our community very soon and almost everytime I went out I was being challenged by someone or another to arm wrestle for money or drink, however now revelling in my new found fame I suddenly began to realise if I get beaten and am shown up I dont fancy it and would like to keep the mystique which has built up around me.
I started to refuse the challenges, blaming injuries to my arms or muscles to try and keep this aura around me.
I dont blame you for not wanting to post up your selections as you like everyone to think of you as some VDW God and a few losers would strip you of that.My tale is 15 years old now and I have grown up and can see how shallow I was to let something as insignificant as arm wrestling confuse my identity.Can you?
 
Posts: 624 | Registered: April 21, 2003Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Fulham>
Posted
BT

I don't forget, and I rarely forgive.
 
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Member
Posted
In a recent exchange on the 80% thread you clearly demonstrated that you do forget and that was not the first time.
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Hustler
Member
Picture of Swish
Posted
Biotechnology
That was an excellent post and I identify with it for many reasons , one that I liked playing pool in rough pubs for money (my own pub was as rough as they get, but a brilliant place to be), when I was younger.
Like yourself, I beat many opponents, but also like yourself found everyone wanting to play me.
I played the captain of North Yorkshire pool team once for £50, after he and his buddies constantly told me I had no chance.
I beat him 8-3, but this took a long time as they were cagey games. After it was over I was drained and pretty drunk).
He insisted on playing me again, calling me lucky etc...
I had had enough and should have walked out.
However I didn't want to look chicken, so I played him again. I lost (6-3, I think).
So I know where you are coming from.

I can see the comparison you are trying to make with Fulhams reluctance to try to name a winner, but I don't think he understands these things.
He told me elsewhere on the board that he hasn't had a drink for 30 years.
Therefore he has never known pub life and having the guts to risk things in front of an audience, and, on occassion, in risky situations.
Therefore, Whether he can pick winners or not we shall never know.
It's because he puts himself across as knowing so much but never proving it (as we all know)
that gets everyones back up.
However he must like the attention he gets from it all, because any ordinary person would get tired of being criticised all the time and say "Right then, I bet I make "x" profit from my next 20 (say) selections.
Wouldn't one think he would just LOVE to prove all doubters wrong?

Cheers
Swish
 
Posts: 3071 | Registered: September 27, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
Dr Fulham,

I forgive you.
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Fulham>
Posted
III

And, as I am sure you will have noticed from recent posts, I you (despite what to me is your incomprehensible attitude to Mtoto, as sound an egg as posts on Gummy).
 
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Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
Dr Fulham,

Standing bollock naked is always uncomfortable (save one circumstance), so I can`t claim to be displeased that even with your qualifications a measure of me remains incomprehensible to you.
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Its considerably harder to go into "rough" (by what definition?) pubs while remaining sober, something not too many people have mastered judging by the amount of messages on this board obviously posted by people when pissed!
 
Posts: 329 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    Talking Rat
    I am sure that when you ponce into your 'local', drunk or sober, the only company you can find to bear your presence is the slot machine.
    I think we all recall your own alcoholic posts concerning the insadequacies of Martin Pipe as a laughable example of a boorish lonely drunk.
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
In fact, I forgive most, since I`ve yet to meet perfection it`s a case of having too, or live alone.
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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