Seanrua,

A couple of points if I may. Can I ask what you are using to judge ability? I narrowed the field down to much the same horses as you for the 4:00.

When it came to comparing Ruby Rocket and Paradise Isle, Ruby was/is far superior. For me the only animal that was anywhere near R was Ringmoor Down. As you rightly pointed out she is better at 5f, but more importantly she isn't consistent at the moment.

The other point why are you taking any notice of Mr Anderson? He may not like backing fillies but VDW has backed them, I think he did stick to fillies against fillies though. No doubt someone will shout if I'm wrong. It's a little bit like taking notice of Mr Bingham, they both put you off possible VDW selections because of their little fads. Reading Mr Bingham's Roushayd article it begs the question how would he have found Roushayd? The whole article looks a little silly placed beside VDW's article.

Be Lucky

Don't ask me - I simply posted Binghams article

I would tho be interested in constructive critism and comments- regarding his interpretation of Roushayd - from the VDWrs

Thank you for your points, Mtoto.

I'll start with the second one: Charlie Anderson.
Basically, I found Gummy's summary of VDW and use that for my interpretation of VDW. I've never read anything by VDW directly - just the quotes that others put up from time to time.

In the Gummy summary, Charlie Anderson is referred to as a well respected commentator on VDW matters, so, out of laziness & for speed, I simply go along with his guidelines.

Partly, this is just my nature: I always turn straight to " summary and conclusion" when I'm given a report, or read a " how to" types of publication.
Life is short enough, and if I reject or accept the conclusion/recommended action, I leave the waffle on the back-burner ( for further study later which rarely seems to happen!).
Anyway, Charlie's guidelines seem near enough for my experiment.


Right, I guess your first question means why did I select Paradise Isle over Ruby Rocket?

Frankly, Mtoto, I'm not quite sure why! Luckily, I see that I backed RR to win on Betfair, and the other two to place. Bit strange.

Checking my notes ( scribble), I THINK I went for PI because she had won a £22K race but RR had won an £11K race.

Also, I see that I 've listed these figures:

PI : 40.5/14 and 40.5/4

RR : 20/12 and 20/3

Now, I'm pretty sure that's win prize money divided by runs, and by number of wins.

Looks like i didn't bother going further; just saw which looked the stronger ratio.

It didn't work, but not to worry, for over on the big underpants thread, I posted the first three (all EW)!

I hope you will be able to point out where I'm going wrong. All advice welcome.

If you see a passing bandwagon, jump on. Some may even believe your a musician!

Seanrua,

I'm not sure but I think you will find it was Marchwood who said Mr Anderson was a well respected commentator on VDW not Gummy. If I'm wrong I of course apologise. Why is this important, because as far as I can see anyone who knows a little bit about VDW was well informed according to Marchwood? I had never heard of Mr Anderson until he was mentioned in that post.

The question about how you judged ability was in no way a criticism, just a question asking had you used any rating (guide). You had, and you choose to use prize money fair enough.

I think you are saying because Paradise Isle had won a 23 class race he had the stronger form. If we look at the strength of the competition in that race the best horse he beat was horse with an OR of 97 backed up by the 4th also having a rating of 97. Looking at the race no horse with an OR of over 100 could be entered. As the distance was on the round course at Ascot no s/f was returned. I would say because of this I took the race before as the key race for this horse.

Ruby Rocket best WIN had been in a 12 class race, ok as far as it goes. His key race for me was a 29 class race at Newcastle. A little bit higher in value but what about the class of competition? The thinking was even if the Ascot race had returned a s/f it wasn't against competition anywhere as strong as RR had raced against.

TC,

When you look at Mr Bingham's ideas of solving the Roushayd method the first thing that struck me was yes, but using your ideas you wouldn't have found Roushayd himself. Consistency was never mentioned as being a factor with this method by VDW. In fact Roushayd wasn't in the lowest 3 for consistency.

As with other parts of the other methods he added in other factors he thought made sense. Like the horse must be a distance winner, etc. More than a few of VDW selections where not distance winners.

Even with these additions I think it is very interesting that VDW said Mr Bingham was well on his way to understanding his methods. When I read that, it did cross my mind as long as ALL the basics are used is there a right (one only) way of using these methods?

JohnD,

who's jumping on the bandwagon? Perhaps it's safer to jump on other wise you may be mistaken for a stray donkey, and hitched up to it.

Be Lucky

Thanks for your reply, Mtoto.

I can't help you with Charlie Anderson; his name is just what I've seen on Gummy Forum. I know nothing about any of these guys.

Your bit of analysis points me to a weakness in my take on VDW.
The " key" race. I haven't a clue about this.
Perhaps, I do need to read the pamphlets!

Help on this point, from any quarter, will be much appreciated; it's something I've never considered before.

Hmmm, the key race; now what's that all about, I wonder?

Thanks for the tip, johnd.

I may mistake the milkman's float for the bandwagon, so I may need further help.

What's the KEY race?

Friday, 15 October.

The VDW race:

250 Newmarket, £29K Grp3 A1, stks, 6f.

A nasty sprint with a lot of runners. Not punter -friendly, imo.

My short-list of four is

Royal Millenium
Ashdown Express
Country Reel
Moss Vale.

Dunno why I've left out Quito, but I have.

I'll scrub the fav, RM, as I class this as a bad race for favs.
Personally, I'd back the other three, but we need a selection, so

ASHDOWN EXPRESS is my VDW selection.

I see that on one forum, this animal is described as a "great lay" with some terrible negatives! Hardly inspires much confidence.

Seanrua,

When I say key race that is a term I use, I'm not suggesting it is a VDW phrase or he used it.

The key race to me is the one that points to the best guide of a horses ability, simple as that. An a/rating is a guide to ability of a horse, so the horses can judged against each other. It of course doesn't follow that the best horse on ratings will always win. If it has the basic factors consistent form and class, then the other factors have to be looked at in detail.

I agree with your short list although there are at least 5 other horses on my list that are capable of winning this. The only thing that Royal Millennium lacks in my view is a realistic price, I would want 5/1 or better. When you consider Attraction was 3/1 in a 8 runner race with one danger.

Be Lucky

Seanrua & Mtoto

For a bit of fun (or was it devilment?) I posted this in September...

Is it me?

Charles Anderson... Che Van der Wheil...

Charles = Che

v AN DER wheil

Or use the v with 'eil' = veil (cover name?)

Oh I know, I know, doooooo shut up BlackCat.

You've got to laugh eh?!

Charles (Che) Ander (vAN DER) son
(behind a veil?)...

We'll never know, will we? And does it even matter? Of course, if they are one and the same, then the Anderson writings would be given more attention on a VDW thread.

(Now, how do I make Jock Bingham fit?)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

Yes, I saw that , BlackCat, and I thought it was very good.

Are you related to Sir Arthur Conan Doyle by any chance?

15 October Result.

My shortlist contained the winner and the second, but I picked the wrong one!

Ashdown Express, unplaced.

Winner was top of the heap, Royal Millenium, 7/2fav.
I rejected this one because it was fav! Ahem.

Royal Millenium, 2nd top OR. 112.
My selection was top OR, 116.

RM was Topspeed.

No. Inspector Clouseau actually. Ahh the old VDW ploy eh?!

Saturday, 16 October.

VDW race and selection:

3.25 Newmarket, £215K Grp1 A1 stks, 1m2f.

AZAMOUR

and to be placed Lucky Story.

Seanrua,

If Azamour was guaranteed to act on the going then like you he'd have been a probable bet today but I personally could not be sure.

Hope he runs well for you !

Thank you, Determined.

Don't worry, I rarely back these selections myself. It's just practice.

I agree there are doubts about the ground for AZ.

Seanrua - if you agree that there are doubts on the going, then it can't be a VDW selection.

Another weight compressing job in the Caearovitch with M Johnston leaving in Pushkin. His Contact Dancer, by Saddlers Wells, was ideally suited by going and dist and is one of those horses the OH has seen fit to put up 10lbs after a win.

By the way this was selected an hour before the off on the 'general' section of this forum.

I had convinced myself that crafty old Prescott was doing the same .


Well done JIB

I dropped three mammoth bollocks with my donkeys though!