Not an ideal race - due to the going and the lack of recent runs - but I note the following -

Only Farmer Jack - TTS - and Bold Investor had run in races of todays class .

FJ had improved in higher class - TSpeed 85 to 135 lto

Also TTS 113 to 146 lto

BI regressing to 80

TTS and FJ top ORs of 156 and 147 - 10 clear !

FJs last win was Ts of 148 - interestingly on the soft !

Indeed apart from BI - best Ts at both going and dist

Rest of field going up in class - only 15% of horses win going up in class

So TTS and FJ are top class - top Ts - Top AR

FJ when it achieved Ts of 148 was carrying 11s12b today it carried 11s1b

Long time since I realy looked at VDW - but since I posted the Rouchayd article I have been looking at the subject again, and I am convinced that "Time Figures" and ORs are the missing links !

Take a look at todays results and see how many winners featured in the results with top Ts - lto !

JIB - To be fair, I did address your post regarding Rooster Booster a long time ago, in fact I named it as the class/form horse before he won his first Champion hurdle, along with another winner that day as I remember.

The main gist of it is this. RB may well have been improving with all those seconds, but he wasn't winning and I don't think many VDWers missed out. Come the big day he was the clear class/form horse, though I also backed Intersky I think.

Ability as VDW saw was a separate entity to form. What he did was balance them to find his selections.

Guest,

Perhaps the kindest thing to say is that VDW thought that ability, class, call it what you will was so important that he would use any method to try and discover it.

That these methods work at cross purposes at times is the unfortunate consequence of their inherent inappropriatenesses.

Investor
Explain why it makes a difference giving X pounds in weight to the next in the Handicap

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

T.C
The official rating just like the ability rating is just that,A rating.You will find on a lot of occasions that good things will figure up the top.But at the end of the day the horses have to be in form to take advantage,The same goes for the speed rating,"what good is speed without form".It was clear today that Farmer jack was coming out of the highest class race lto.But this was his seasonal re appearance.of course you have to respect a horse that had shown ability in higher class but had it?.I personally couldn't see that result but i discarded the race within minutes when i saw the weight that Take the stand was giving away.He was the class form horse and like i have said before,This is the horse we want when everything lines up.

investor

I agree - for most of the reasons you give - I couldn't "See" it either - just a bit of "Aftertiming"

However -I was looking at "Spells it all out" and wondering why he should give the 2 sets of rating figs - winner is "Top" on each occasion - he didn't write anything - just for the sake of it - I think these are the "Final" balancing factors in the equation !!

I dont have the Form books - but I would not be at all suprised to find that the "Ratings were the OR and Topspeed or "Split Second"

How can you get the "Topspeed" figures from the Formbook anyone

Boozer
Well in today's case let's take the winner and Vodka Bleu as examples.

Vodka bleu had gone down by a nk carrying 11/12 lto to Monkerhostin which is no donkey and today was 22lb lighter.

Farmer jack Had also been carrying big weights and was today carrying 11/1.Whereas Take the stand all though carrying 11/12 to victory was only 2 lb lighter in higher class.It was just too much to give away to Others in this race.

TC
In my paper he was 3rd in the forecast
You couldnt see it, neither could I but you dont have to
bet against it

Farmer Jacks OR made it perfectly clear he had the class to win this race. As did Take The Stands OR. Both trainers had a good hcp chs record at the track.

I posted both well before the off as a dutch on my hcp jumps dutch thread, which can be found on the systems testing section.

" 300W: Cameron Bridge, Zaffamore, Mighty Strong.

335W: No bet.

145A: No bet.

250A: Take The Stand, Farmer Jack.

355A No bet.

235T: No bet

345T: Major Benefit, Stand Easy."

Jib
It isn't difficult to see that farmer jack had the class to win this race,From a personal point of view i would sooner wait until a horse has shown some form prior to putting my money down.If you like taking chances that is of course your prerogative.telieve me a lot more Farmer jacks lose than win as far as these methods are concerned.Nevertheless well done.It's a shame you didn't put it on here for all to see.

Investor
At the moment I must say I can see no logic in your reasoning

At one time VDW's on here would shy away from a horse in a HCP that was say carrying a stone more than LTO
whatever LTo has got to do with it I dont know

Seems there has been a change from that idea Nowadays
Or has there?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

JIB put it up for "All" to see - at least - them wot "Support" Gummy !! - thanks JIB !!

also I have been looking at it a bit more , and it looks - ever so like a "Roushayd" bet !!!

Still a "Dutch" with TTS tho !

After the Event - of course !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Boozer
Ah well never mind,You put some selections up and we'll talk about them.Iv'e never seen a selection off you so i can't pass a judgement on you at all.

Well done, JIB. I missed that one, I'll need to be more diligent.

I'd like to thank everybody for today's points.
I feel I've learnt a lot.

TC made some good use of figures, but I have to admit that, like Investor, I didn't really see Farmer coming back so well today.
I felt he might have been on the downturn. Now I feel they were doing the old mullarkey of fking about for a few races, before giving it the big ( priced) one.

Le Duc, on the other hand, seems to be fked. Nevertheless, I'll be keeping an eye on him.

The real success for me personally was that we beat the fav - form figures 1,1,2 - the "recent form darling".

The winner's figures were 1,8,0, and this was the first race for 221 days.
A great way to get 14/1 in a seven horse race, I guess.

T.C
Lick,Lick.

Lic , Lic

not at all - JIB is one of the most knowledgable contributors to this forum - and I just wish that I had his - breadth of knowledge !!

Try reading his library !!!

TC

He sees no further than VDW
So He wont

boozer

maybe he was talking about - licking up to Gummy !!

I just wish that some of these VDWrs would accept that he is "Giving " them a Forum to express their views , and contribute the Odd £20 towards the costs of running the site !!

I know
Its disgraceful
You would think with all the money they have won they would be able to cough up a miserable 20 quid

Boozer,

Ive been going through last years jumps formbook and the top 3 OR in the the better hcps have an impressive SR.

Ive not looked to see if they are dropping from lto, though Im experimenting with my new thread using the trainer stats to see if the chosen track is one he/she uses when winning.

I have a book called 'the complete manual of racing and betting systems' by David Duncan that demonstrates that 75% of hcp chs are won by the top 5 ORs. Hcp Hdls are more democratic but as v raw statistics they show the real and practical value of the OR.

Investor,

My new Jumps list started this weekend. It is called Clan Muffin and named Rigmarole and Gunther Mcbride the day before racing as winners . Join the forum, it will broaden your mind!