Thanks, Investor, I'm nowhere near yet, quite clearly.

I've just been looking at the winner and trainer.
Dandy has got a very profitable record at Newbury, and so has Onlytimewilltell.

Yes, I fear I may be getting carried away with OR and prizemoney. Don't let it bother you though, as I'm the one who should be concerned!

Strangely enough, this reminds me of something that happened years ago. In those days, underpants weren't so common as nowadays, and this big, tall schoolmaster used always to show his big tube when he stripped for football ( you changed behind the hedge, in those days).

Anyway, as ever, there were some complaints. A deputation was sent to tell the schoolmaster their concern.

The schoolmaster, a Kerryman, rounded on the complainers:
" ye don't worry about what ye have; ye worry about what ye don't have!"

That's something I've never forgotten.

Anyway, thanks again for helping; it must be a bit like taking a horse to water, but not getting him to drink.

I think it'll be alright in the end, and, btw, it must be getting near time for your naked lady again.

Sean - I know what you mean regards Pick Up Sticks.
Inv. - Lighten up, it's HALLOWEEN.
BOOOOOOO.

Investor,

If you want to forget about ORs you will soon find yourself scrabbling around in the bottom of your canoe looking for something to use as a paddle.

I think you will find a remarkable correlation between OR and finishing position when Sean breaks down his results. They are not something you will want to shake your dick at!

Jib
I am not disputing the fact that o.R's are a good guide,But so is the ability rating that vdw gave us and afterall that is what this thread is about.When horses like pic up sticks are put up as a possible winner in the race,Then folk aren't looking at the race from a vdw point of view.I'm sorry if i was blunt but the horse had no chance whatsoever from a vdw perspective where as onlytime wiltell most certainly did,If only those who are really interested would set a race out in the fashion that vdw gave then eventually they would see things in a different light,Instead of relying on ratings which are good but they are only a guide.it is what a horse has done against other horses that is more important.

Class/Form horses for today excluding ireland and 2 y olds.

2.35 car ST MATTHEW
2.40 NEW NAMROC
3.10 NEW ASIAN HEIGHTS
3.20 KEMP RIGMAROLE
3.40 CAR MULTEEN RIVER
3.55 KEMP BALLYVADDY
4.15 CAR MIDDLETHORPE
4.40 DON CORRIDOR CREEPER.

There is some decent racing today,And a lot of hard work before kick off.So good luck to you and everybody else on what could be a good day.

Saturday, October 23.

I wasn't up to going racing in this weather, so you'll have to put up with me again.

Well, despite being on the wrong end of Investor's persuader, I don't seem to be picking up at all.
In fact, I seem to be regressing, for, this morning, it looks like we haven't even agreed on the VDW race of the day!

VDW race of the day:

255 Doncaster, £14K, C1 hcp, 1m 4f.

Bearing in mind Investor's advice, " look at A horse, not the horses" and, be sure not to overlook form,
I started from a different place this time: I did the old adding up the last three form figures.
This gave
Countrywide Luck 9
Qudraat 10
Soulacroix 11 6/1
Cruise Director 16 5/1
Cold Turkey 16 8/1.

Of these, only three were in the top six of the RP betting forecast:

Soulacroix 6/1
Cruise Director 5/1
Cold Turkey 8/1.

Next I looked at what races they'd run. Prizemoney, finishing positions, weight etc.

I came out with
SOULACROIX, the selection.

Cruise Director, 2nd best.

Seanrua
What we are looking for is good class stakes and handicap races.i f we look at it from the highest penalty point of view then we are both wrong,Because the 2 yolds take the honours of highest penalty value,I bypassed the race you have put up because nothing jumped out at me.But i shall have a look and get back later.

Jib
Another point r.e official ratings.On a majority of occasions the horses that carry the tag of good thing,Will be up the top end of the o.r but they will also have the class and form to match.

Seanrua
Just as a matter of interest do you have the ability ratings for all the horses the race.If so would you put them up.

Seanrua
2 horses i would be looking strongly at in that race are Protective and Soulacroix.But neither are strong enough to carry my money.Good luck if you play.

After Lee gave a couple of his selections i delved into the form of each respective horse he gave and indeed of the race as a hole.I have noticed a few things but i would imagine i am a long way from the 'ultimate conclusion'.The past week has been good and i had small wagers on Royal milenium, Firebeak, Millenary, Cello, Ok pal and cupids glory.I was wondering if Lee or anyone else who feels they have a good understanding of van der wheil could be pursuaded to verify for me if the above were indeed selections or not.
Thanks in advance for your help.

Investor
From today's better races, a list of the 'best recent form' horses for comparison with your 'class form' horses. Be interesting to see how each list fares?

Doncaster:
2.55 Cold Turkey
3.30 Albert Hall*
4.05 Dramaticus*
4.40 Malapropism*

Newbury:
2.40 Blythe Knight*
3.10 Asian Heights

Kempton
3.20 Rigmarole
3.50 Ballyvaddy*

Snow knight
Firebreak,Millenary And royal Millennium were all class form horses in my opinion.The others weren't cupid's glory was also c/f if you chose to play in 2 y old races.Probably not the answer you want but i don't want to be accused of aftertiming.

Johnd
Cold Turkey..I can't have this horse on recent form.

Albert hall..Has to be c/f but the ab rating was achieved on one good win,But wjat of note has it beaten.

Dramaticus..Pitched way over the top lto but prior to that only won a class 35 maiden.With the exclusion of dario gee Gee i would be siding with Cornus.

Malopropism..Could win this but corridor creeper was giving him a stone lto,Now 8lb better off for 1.75 lgs.

Blythe knight..Has been running miles out of class.Could win this but giving 6lb to the next in the h/cap and not been noted in the forecast area.

All the others you mention i don't have a problem with at all.

Thanks to all for the posts! Very interesting.

To be perfectly honest, Investor, I don't really know what the " Ability Ratings" are, but I'll tell you what I got.

First, as you said to only look at A horse, I compromised and looked only at the three that qualified as above.

Starting with the last race first:

Cold Turkey; 10th £15K, 4th £12K, 2nd £17K.
His best TS in these races = 80.

Cruise Director: 4th £11K, 2nd 10K, 11th £10K.
His best TS in these = 88.

Soulacroix: 3rd £12K, 7th £12K, 1st £9K.
His best TS in these = 84.

Not sure why I've gone for S over CD. Maybe it's bc S is younger and had less races.

Hope you can spot a glaring error in my policy!
I don't want to repeat the same old mistake.

Ah, I've spotted why I picked Soulacroix.

He's the only horse in the race that has won off 85 in the last six outings, and he's joint top OR.

So I slipped back into sly OR mode again, it seems!

255D Protective has an obviously undervalued OR. The trainer has great stats here and being by Hector Protector is a late developer.

Seanrua
With all due respect,The ability ratings are the very basics of the method.But without them how do you expect to make a comparison between one horse and another,You cannot do this purely on official ratings,Or what prize money races they have been running in.I did explain about the ab rating if your not sure then for goodness sake say so and i will show you how to do this.it has to be done my friend,That is if you want to do a race in the way vdw set them out.

Yes, Investor, I'd like to know how ro do the ability ratings , especially for that race, the 255 Doncaster.

Well, after all that rigmarole, the only winner put up was Rigmarole, odds on in a five runner race.

23 Oct, result:

Supposed to be VDW selection: nowhere.

Basically, I still hold to the maxim:

" when it's wet, don't have a bet", but Investor already told us that this isn't right.

As for today's winner, I don't think we can get away from "trainer placing".

Tempsford, trained by Sir Mark Prescott, ridden by S. Sanders, won at 10/1.

OR 86, and, like my selection, HAD won off 85 ( I missed that earlier) in the last six outings.
Also, this animal has now won 6 out of 15 starts. Not to be sneezed at!
I missed it completely!

Now, whether this is significant or not, only Investor can tell us, but I also missed the fact that T last ran in a £75.4K race.
Mind you, he came 31st out of 34! That's some form!

Not sure, but maybe it wasn't much help just looking at A horse, rather than THE horses, especially when I don't really know what I'm looking for.

Anyway, we must have greatly narrowed the field by now, as most of the positive criteria ( imo) have already been rejected.

So what are we left with? I, for one, will need a lot of help from Investor on this one.

At this stage, all I can say is thank fk I don't buy my shoes from Investor's shop!
I'd be walking out of there in a daze, with a wellie over my head, and a baby's bootee on my dick!

Seanrua.
LOL Calm down my friend your getting all excited over nothing.When vdw gave his methods he said that it was the class form horse that should be supported provided everything was in it's favour.There was only one horse that fell into that category today.All the others had factors against,And of course the ground was dire.Don't twist my words Sean.I said "if a horse has shown form in the conditions then why not"I will put the ability ratingd up for a race tomorrow.But remember,Not ALL class form horses should carry our money only when they have everything in there favour.

One other point,Look at the class of race tempsford was coming out of.There's no way i would have backed this horse.But even so the class of race a horse runs in can very often bring them on.

Investor
From looking at the form books i have seen that van der wheil backed soaf on the saturday of the glorious goodwood meeting in 1979.On the same day he also backed philodantes and connaught ridge.Soaf was running in a 2 year old nursery so i think this goes against the thinking that he did not back in 2 year old races.I thought pivotal flame could also have been backed yesterday but i left it alone.Today was dodgy with the ground going the way it did but meshaheer had a lot of ticks in the right boxes but i left it alone.
All i want to know is are the horses i have picked above actually van der wheil selections on the day.Any comment would be greatly appreciated