Nice results, Investor!

Btw, I'm always glad to see your posts and everybody elses.

JIb,
I hope you're on the mend; that Malaria and dengue fever are two nasties.

Sean,

My blood's still a bit runny as my platelets are still down, but yesterday I 'managed' a few icecold Skols!

Seanrua/Jib
please don't get the wrong end of the stick.I was merely showing that the class form horse is a powerful ally.Like jib says 14/42 is a more realistic s/r but it's how many of the 42 fall into the category of good thing.I don't achieve 80% using these methods,But like iv'e said in the past,I do o.k and will continue to pass comment and help.if individuals choose to try and understand what is involved with these methods.I am playing a 36 hole golf competition tomorrow but starting saturday i will put up what i consider to be class form horses for the races that vdw suggested i will do this for a week and we'll see what the outcome would be.But what must be understood is the fact that a horse may well be c/f but not always worthy of support.

Investor,

I look forward to them.

Thank you for the top weight can they carry it thingymebob, saved myself some pennies today - I was looking at Benrajah (H 3.00), notes after I'd shortlisted it "top weight not proven, no bet", possibly (well actually!) after timing but I did email a friend pre race who had asked me about 3 horses in this race (why he asked me I don't know, he knows far more than me) and gave this very reason.

Nfp
Mumaris was by far the most likely winner in that particular race.On occasions you will find a horse that will win but you'll also find that it is proven.When a horse has carried top weight and then dropped a long way then it's time to look very closely.

Investor,

Copied from an email regards this race sent at 13:41 to my friend..

Mumaris is the only horse in top 3 of all.

The "all" - regards to ratings etc, I don't want to say what without permission from my friend, it is my view on the race but it is his race and his question with his original horses - one of which was Mumaris.

Please don't take this as cloak and dagger (though that is exactly what it looks like) but he is my friend, we have built up a trust and I do not wish to break that trust and lose the friendship.

I should add I feel far more the taker than the giver in this friendship, though I do try my best.

Horris Hill Stakes

The 3 most consistent are Cupid´s Glory, Dhaular Dhar and Embossed.

Cupid´s Glory started the season with an easy ride at Lingfield’s all weather before winning easily next time at the same track. Next time out in much higher class at Chester in the soft he won easily again and showed much improvement.
His next race should make you stand up and take notice.
5 days after Chester he was back at Lingfield’s all weather in a 7f Nursery carrying 10-0 which included a 7lb penalty. This is a massive weight for a 2-y-o to carry. Note also the prize money was just over a third of the Chester race. You should ask yourself WHY he ran in this race.
His next engagement, his last appearance, was over to Ireland at the Curragh, his first galloping track,
in a Listed event over 6f which actually carried more prize money than today’s race which is a Group 3. Note the jockey engaged was an Irish jockey and not Seb Saunders or J Mackay. The horse finished third to Ad Valorem who went on to win the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket.
Back to the question WHY?
The Lingfield race was obviously to instil stamina into the horse, but was this for the Irish race? The clue is in the jockey engaged. If the horse had been truly out to win in Ireland then surely Seb Saunders or J Mackay would have had the ride. The conclusion must be that the race was to sharpen him up for today’s race. The trainer is TELLING you the horse is REALLY OUT TO WIN and has been prepared accordingly.

Dhaular Dhar won his maiden last time out winning as a 2/5 shot should, beating nothing. He is taking a major rise in class and is being allowed to take his chance today.

Embossed has run in this class before and failed. He is also going up in class and seems to be one-paced.

Dhaular Dhar is the forecast favourite in my Evening paper but betfair shows Cupid´s Glory as the favourite. The hard work has been done and as usual everyone knows.

Friday, October 22.

Nearly forgot to put up my attempt at a VDW selection!

255 Newbury, £12.5K C1 hcp, 6f.

My shortlist:

Pic Up Sticks
If Paradise
Onlytimewilltell
King's Caprice.

I didn't find it easy, but I've plumped for

PIC UP STICKS.

The Horris Hill, analysed by garstonf,is for 2yo, and much too hard for me.

My selection would be Brecon Beacon, EW.

Well-picked, garstonf!

Cupid's wins at 2/1 fav.

Seanrua
Cupid's glory was the class/form horse in that particular race.In the other race Pivotal flame wasn't,But was by far the most likely winner,Ollie Maggern was c/f and also Villair.

Garstonf

Nice winner and good to see your reasoning before the race, not only for the winner, but also the other principles.
Spot on, with the small exception that Sir Mark often uses the same jockey for his Irish runners, though that form, over too short a distance, didn't detract from his chances today.
Good to see that more than Investor and Seanrua are prepared to put something up before the race. More power to your elbow!

Result, Fri, Oct 22.

I picked the wrong one from my shortlist yet again.

The winner was Onlytimewilltell.

Joint third best OR, 90.
Joint 2nd top best RPR, 119.
2nd top best TS, 113 gs.

Finished 6th in a £70K race (soft) lto.

I don't quite understand the full meaning of this, but I take it that a high number at left is best:
GS-HVY 4-2-14.

If this means what i think it means - that Only had won 4 times in good to soft or heavy, and had placed twice in the same going, then, I can see (now ) that the winner was way ahead of the others in today's ground.

Winner was tipped by Spotlight.

Hi Investor,

Luckily I backed Pivotal to win but backed two others to place as well. They didn't!

Had to go lie down, but when I checked the results this evening, I found I'd not done too badly, with Alpine something ( JDunlop/Mongan/Windflower) being my best winner on the day.

It's all very interesting; I don't know why I keep backing Pick UP Sticks; must have some kinda fixation or something!
I take it you've had another good day yourself, Investor. Well done!

We seem to be getting a bit more activity on here now, for which I'm very grateful.

quote:

---

It's all very interesting; I don't know why I keep backing Pick UP Sticks; must have some kinda fixation or something!

---

Spooky same here, he kinda leaps off the page for no reason. Does my head in.

Seanrua
i didn't have a bet at all today,I looked in the r/p this morning saw the 2 yold races and tootled off to my golf comp.I don't bet everyday.And i would say to those that play in 2yold races,Be very careful.

Seanrua/mikey
pick up sticks was not a form horse and had more chance of winning the f.a cup than this race.I have mentioned before about looking at the form of all concerned.This obl includes there ability ratings that is all the horses ability ratings in the race.And then you can form a picture.Think about it this way.pick up sticks has an ab rating of 164 and finishes 7th a 125.Only time will tell Has an ab rating of 67 and finishes 6th in a class 700.It ain't rocket science chaps it just needs some thought.Also remember that when we are dealing with 2 and 3 yolds you have to look at the spped element.

Yes, alright, Investor; don't get your golf slacks in a twist.
Everybody on here thinks about the game; it's just that we weren't thinking along the right lines!

Both PUS and O had won three races ago:
PUS won a 0-100, £12.5K hcp on Soft over today's trip in September.

O won a £5.6K claimer on Good in mid-August.

PUS is a year younger but had won £25K+ more in winning prize money than O.

Obviously, I, for one, had not been evaluating " form" correctly.

I did tally up the last three finishing positions, and on this criterion, you are spot on:
O 11 ( 1,4,6)

PUS 17 (1,9,7).

So, I take you point; it's important to consider "form". Thanks for your input.
Every bit helps build the jigsaw!

Because the weather is so bad, I'm not sure , but I may be going racing early tomorrow.

If I go, I may not be able to post any selection in the morning.

I hope you all have a good weekend.

Seanrua
It really is frustrating for me this is.I have given an area that MUST be looked at and not many want to put in the work.And it really pisses me off when horses like pick up sticks are brought to the fore.Onlytime will tell was the c/f horse in this race irrespective of the fact that he finished 6th lto.Forget o.r's t.s rpr postdata or whatever for the time being,And try and evaluate the race in question the way that vdw would have done.Forget collaterral form.And again i will put this Consistent form + ability + capabilility + probability + hard work = Winners.It would appear that my last post has gone straight over the top of your head,Which really does my nut in.Start thinking about A horse rather than THE Horses otherwise you will never get "the winner" and that is the one we want.

Have a great time at the races Seanrua. I won't be posting for a while... another week of blue sky and sun in Majorca (I hope). It's a hard life eh.