Mtoto
Why the mention of another ability rating,The one that is already there is good enough.As for prominent King,Remember he was giving a lot of weight to drumgora Which had just finished 3rd in a class 115 and only going down by 5 lgs.And as for the pegwell bay example,it may well be worth thinking about Smart tar,dropped from class 146 (which he won)To 57 and being turned over by P.B.There is a big clue in that form,But again you have to look at it from a vdw perspective.

Mtoto,

Published on the 10 Oct 1981 was, as you clearly state, the following:

‘Additions can be made to this small list from older horses with a best speed figure of 80-plus over a minimum of 8f at the same course(s) as above. A check will reveal that winners started to flow right from the "off at Doncaster.’

That letter was titled by Peach as ‘LISTING SPEED FIGURES from A WORD ABOUT EVALUATION FROM VAN DER WHEIL’ and published in The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune.

The above was a supplementary article that appeared on the same page as ‘A WORD ABOUT EVALUATION FROM VAN DER WHEIL’, which of course appeared at the end of the Golden Years, and included:

‘There are good grounds for taking the view that when using time as a means of EVALUATION attention should be restricted to the five and six furlong sprints, or at least, to a maximum of one mile. These same grounds hold good for thinking the use of time during the NH is not so reliable as other means because of the minimum of two miles.’

The two above statements were written at the same time and published at the same time. A contradiction, I don’t think so.

"never backs anything other than - Colts , geldings , and Horses !!!

Did someone say that "females" are an unpredictable bunch ????"


Yes, TC. Flatstats did.

With reference to the the equine world, that is.
We cannot afford the niceties of PC here.

I'm reading a bit of actual VDW now.

Here are three positive factors he mentioned:

Speed

Guts

Stamina.

JIB and TC,

Re the females in racing, one of VDW's favourite races was the Lancashire oaks which is for 3yo fillies.I seem to remember in one article he said you have to be careful with fillies, but I haven't been able to find the article. My own experience backs that up, particularly if they are up against males.With regard to mares I must admit I've never checked the examples for this probably because I have never seen them as being disadvantaged.

Merry Jane was about 15 days off being a mare! So in reality was most probably over 5 when he selected her! Perhaps that's the filter - any boys are ok, but only select girls if they're not within 15 days of their horsey 5th birthday!

Old women (apart from ya mam) can't be relied on though!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Lee,

Lee,
When VDW said to Tony Peach,that he had intended to reveal all of the method/s,he must in fact have been of the opinion that it wouldn't have had any effect on the betting markets,due to peoples inability or unwillingness to put in the neccessary work required.

In Systematic Betting he said "This all takes TIME an ingredient to successful punting that can't be dispensed with".

Betting in a females-only race is a bit different to backing a female against males.

Even a real little battler like Attraction has been mostly kept away from the opposite sex (getting stuffed at Deauville on the only occasion she took on the males).

The two above statements were written at the same time and published at the same time. A contradiction, I don't think so.

Lee,

If VDW believed these good grounds, I would have said telling folk to list horses from races of a MINIMUM of 8f was a contradiction. In fact it would have been criminal to then suggest backing them.

Not content with that he then 5/6 years later goes as far as to say in a chapter headed Speed Figures and talking about NH races This is a viable method of evaluating EXPOSED form. Does that really sit with someone that agrees with the line that they are unreliable? It just goes to show no matter now many times one reads the booklets things still get missed. I have asked many times why if the time merit idea works for unexposed horse not exposed? I will now ask why if it works for NH why not exposed flat horses? Let's be honest the majority of the examples were races that had exposed horses in them.

Investor,

Sorry you have lost me what ability rating did VDW use to assess the Erin, he hadn't mentioned ability. I'm well aware Pk was giving a lot of weight away, but now does that show he was good enough to win the Erin? I can see the Erin was the likely target, but he hadn't won the target the year before. Why did the trainer think he was good enough to win the Sweeps (120) the year before? After that disaster what happen to convince the trainer the horse was still up to a big win? The run against Drumgora at best showed the trainer he was fit and in form, but I can't see that by it's self makes him the winner in the race. I do wonder if these two races were run tomorrow if you would have PK and Baronet as the selections.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Prominent king had just been beaten by Drumgora giving the horse a lot of weight as we both know,Drumgora had previously finished 3rd in a class 115.What was the penalty value of the Erin,Of course the trainer now knew that P.K was ready for the winners enclosure.As for beacon light,he should have taken care of Sea pigeon which was a lower class horse in a lower class race.But he didn't which would have resulted in a downturn in form.With regard to backing these 2 horses,Your probably right,But i would have seen the positives and negatives for various horses in the way that vdw portrayed them.

Bream
R.e Millenary,First charter was a n/r.Which brought M into the equation.

On the male/female bias, though males generally dominate, there are a few mares that can " mix it" in mixed company.

Madame Jones, for example, was a tough as boots handicapper who ran up a sequence of wins.

Personally, I think 5yo horses are about right on the flat.

No group or sub-group wins everything though, eapecially not favs!

quote:

---

Originally posted by Lee:


Even if I were prepared to explain the ins and outs of assessing a race, both for horses coming from lower class, or horses coming from higher class, there would still be disagreement in what I have to say.

There are a couple of reasons for this. First and foremost the response from onlookers would still be one that is made without practised judgment. By this I mean that certain details of the method didn’t appear, at least they didn’t for me, until I’d employed lesser versions of it.

---

Lee
Thanks for your previous answer.
I am intrigued by the last sentence of the above quote.
Without giving too much away about the method of selection,could you enlarge upon exactly how you approached this simplification?

Is the following a suitable lesser version of it?

""10 runners or less

Top trainers & jockey

First five in betting NON handicaps
First six in betting market handicaps

only consider ABC races

Ability must be 40 plus +20 clear of nearest rival,even higher in the case of the strongest bets

Must be biggest race winner- Most valuable value must be a minimum of £10,000

Last race must be first three in class last run.

Distance winners or same distance as last run.

Weight within 10lbs of last run IE no more

Should not of been beaten more than 5 lenths in last run.

running within 28 days of last run""

Wow !

Join the "Colin Davey" fan club !!!

Last Rule -

Only bet "Odds On" !

T.C
"Only bet odds on".Complete the key you look for is well and truly "under the flowerpot"

Keep Looking

You only need to find -

"My Flowerpot"

"Lee" -

has already "Told you"

non profit threads to the top

ok Mtoto, puff out your chest

1974 sweeps hurdle anyone?

Previous SP`s are a decent guideline to a horses chances in todays race along with todays forecast price imho.Im only thinking out loud here so bare with me but if any horse was priced at say 10/1 in a 10k race within his last 3 races (or further out if need be) why then would he be offered at shorter odds in any 10k race run today?.