Great !!
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The VDW thread - is now working again !!

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Better than I ever expected !!

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Lets - "Keep it Going" !!

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I have just sent - "Gummy" - another £20 quid towards his "Christmas Booze" - as thanks for hosting this discussion !

tc

Mtoto,

Hello.

Strangely enough I was going over some of the notes I made on the earlier examples this evening. I ‘m not sure which 2 horses the class form idea doesn’t work for. I can’t remember seeing this mentioned before. I thought Guest and Fulham had all the examples fitting. Is one of them Celtic Pleasure? Could you tell me which you think the 2 are?

Take care.

JIB,

Not that it is relevant whatsoever to the VDW method, but Best Mate’s win over Seebald has actually decreased his AR.

Mtoto,

Whatever the class/form method is that you are privy to must be different to the one that I know because I have no problem at all in working every example that VDW gave, without any juggling.

With respect, only a fool would continue as they were if you they were able to achieve a strike rate like VDW’s at odds against.

lee, could i ask regarding best mates, ability rating going down after beating seebald,? do you have a separate way of assessing form

Lee,

Lets tell the whole story: win or lose Best Mates' AR was going to decrease because of the relatively low value of the race compared to the Gold Cups' value. However by winning Best Mate kept its decrease to the minimum.

I suppose only VDW can allege a horses ability has decreased if he wins a race!

Lee,

The only class form methods I have ever seen explained are the c/form horse is the horse with the highest a/rating that is in form. A slight variation is the horse with the best form, that is also in form. Are you saying neither of the above is correct?

Most of the juggling happens to get rid of the horses with a higher a/rating than the VDW selection. These horses are classified as out of form or even more strangely not a form horse for this race. If the a/rating works how can this be?

I think you have stated the a/rating can't be used to gauge the class of a horse. If I have misunderstood you I apologise, if not, what is the point of it?

So can I ask do you think the selections VDW put up are the c/form horses in those races? If not why is he backing against them when he thinks the c/form horse is the most likely to win?

Do you think Petronisi was out of form (or a none form horse) or his form just not good enough. If you have him as out of form why isn't Baronet? Investor says P is out of form because he didn't win a lower class race last time out. Baronet also went into the same race with a higher class win last time out. P beats B, P is out of form, Baronet is a form horse, and the selection to boot??

Love of Verona and Son of Love are the 2 that I have never seen explained to any satisfaction. Is Dyscole eliminated purely on the fact that his last race was a chase?
Son Of Love, I fail to see how he is a form horse (the way others have explained it) If the a/rating has anything at all to do with the c/form horse (or in this case the race and/or the horse at all) how can a rating of 50 compare to ratings of 266, 133, 112, etc.?

On one hand you argue the worth of the a/rating then appear to ignore if you can make the examples work without any juggling.

Actually reading back through my notes you don't ever seem to have commented on the a/rating one way or another. Except to say it is of use. So the long and short of it is do you think the a/rating is being used in the wrong way? Is Investor correct to use it as a collateral marker?

Given a race and the selection, it is very easy to come up with some very impressive looking reasons why that horse is the selection. In truth they maybe a mile away from the real reason(s) that horse was chosen, but the reasons can be made to fit and look good. Yesterday I didn't look at Top Speed and never take weight into account and don't judge a race by prize money on offer. Investor came up with some good reasons to make the selection fit, none of which were used by me. Has he really found the answer to the way I work?

Be Lucky

JIB,

Come on, if you’re going to tell the whole story then tell it properly.

“However by winning Best Mate kept its decrease to the minimum.”
Wrong – had Best Mate failed to win then his Ability Rating wouldn’t have altered and therefore those who use the Ability Rating at face value would now see BM, AR wise, as a better horse for losing. Surely this can't be right? It's a good job therefore that I took the time to work out what purpose the Ability Rating really had.

Grundy,

A seperate way from what?

Mtoto,

We posted at the same time. I'll answer you later, however, ALL VDW's selections were class/form horses.

Lee,

I'm sure that this is a red-herring but I will try to see the virtue in alleging that horses dropped in class are, by not winning, presumably (and at best only possibly) being prepared to win in a higher class sometime in the near future.

Jib
The 3 main races today
Lord of illusion 221 w5/2
Willie john daly 212 w4/1
Parsons legacy 132 w 13/8

Consistent horses don't win

Mtoto
No doubt Lee will rip me to pieces(he normally does).But i will try and make my point again r.e Baronet when Lee has said his bit.

Mtoto
I can't wait for Lee,He can tear strips off this if he wishes.

Let's look at it this way.Peronisi had an ab rating of 38 when discounting the disqualification.He was then dropped in classhaving previously won a class 73.The race he was now contending was a class 28.Which was below his ability and a lot lower than the class he had just won.

He is given a hard race by The Adrianstana (and Baronet for that matter) winning by default.This horse had an ab rating of 11 and had previously finished 2nd to last in a class 28 which was below the rating of Petronisi.

The same thig might be said about Baronet,But he had previously won a class 38 which was bang on Petronisi's ability.He was giving 17lb to The Adrianstana and 7lb to Petronisi,Finishing within 1.5 lgs of them.The rest is history,He went into the Cambridge on 16lb better tems with Petronisi.

A quote

" you will find that a large percentage of handicap winners have been raced above there ABILITY before being dropped to collect"

He collected alright,By default against an inferior horse in lower class than his ability.Making him out of form.IMO

Mtoto
Further to my last post.Baronet had an ab rating of 16,The race was a class 28.So he was racing above his ability.

Investor: does the Derby ever have any entrants with the ability to win?

does any race?..pre race

Epi
Absolutely,North light for example.

Ectoo
i have given my stand point about pre race selections.I was trying to help and in time i would have put pre race selections up.But YOU put the kybosh on it by being so negative about everything to do with vdw.So like i say i WON'T put any selections up pre race again,Nor wil i aftertime. What i am doing at the minute is talking to like minded people and trying to give my opinion on a subject that you know nothing about.

investor, mtoto, lee, everyone, not having the class or rating for examples van der wheil mentioned starting from prominent king in the erin, investor, lee does this method work with all the race profiles, celtic pleasure, ekbolco, sunset cristo, royal bond,little owl,righthand man, stray shot,.rivage bleu, travado, killeshin, ever smile?

Mtoto
The Adrianstana's ab rating was 16 not 11 (Don't know where i got that from).Exactly the same as Baronet.

Investor,
I think you have made a mistake with the revised terms,that Baronet and Petronisi met in the Cambridgeshire,I think Baronet was only 2lb better off with Petronisi