Please include me in the encomia.

Excellent racing tomorrow, and plenty to get the teeth in to.

1.40Newm.
Boreas has everything in his favour, and should be a good thing.

5.15 Newm.
Masterful is the class horse, and should win this, no matter how he is ridden.

2.50 Newm.

Hugs Dancer has been my idea of the winner since the Ebor, and has a lot in his favour from a VDW perspective. Tee's Components has probably had this race as his objective all season, and his trainer has done a good job in hiding his form, so must rate a danger.

Off to sunny Blackpool tomorrow to freeze my wotsits off, so will have to set the vcr.

Good luck to all.

Well done Guest,a couple of good days work,a good example of the power of the methods, vdw conveyed,and how to interpret them.Importantly for me, and I am sure others,is the benefit of having recent examples,to study.Thanks for all the time and effort you have put into this thread,it is appreciated.

All VDW followers should start the day on a good note, ie - Boreas has the race at his mercy and is a good thing. My only worry was the 2 tough races on his last 2 outings but the 37 day break will have freshened him up.

Consistent, top on ability, best winning form and his overall form relative to the opposition is superior, going, distance, etc = ok, trainer in form, time and form ratings lend support.

At odds against he has to be, as Johnd has already stated a good thing.



Add to that the absolute class horse in the 2.20 MR namely Azertyuiop who if having a clear round will win this with its head in its chest.

Given that it is his first run over the larger obstacles even money would be required for me to play.

It gets a hell of alot more difficult thereafter !

Bye for now,

Whilst Tees Components may not fit VDW wise I would suggest all posters have a look at his race on 18/05/02.

Hated the fast ground, drawn out in the country, trying to give Barathea Blazer 14 lbs. Was that a class run ?

Look who has ridden the horse on 30/03 and 18/05.

Mr Johnson has 2 in the race but Mr Darley is back on this one.

I`m not saying this horse will win but anybody making a book, etc should be very careful in dismissing this one.

VDW wise - Hugs Dancer via the numerical picture of consistency, ability, winning class plus ratings support on time looks a hell of a price today but look at the weight turnaround with Distant Prospect.

In short I believe the winner will come from TC, DP or HD.

Cheers,

The Challenge Stks has a competitive look to it but Nayyir and Dolores are the class/form horses.

A book should be the order of the day but at the availible price Dolores e/w looks the bet.

Her Group 1 form holds up very well in comparison. A nice break sees her return to run the rapidly improving Dress to Thrill close.

A very clever placement by the trainer ? We`ll see later.

Cheers,

Fair play to Guest yesterday, and thanks for the well done with Brooklyn’s Gold.

Today’s another day and I’ll put up how I see a few races and how I’ll play them.

In the 1.40 at Newmarket I have Boreas top rated, Persian Punch 2nd, and Foreign Affairs 3rd. I’ll be backing Boreas in this one.

In the Champion Stakes at 4.00 I have Noverre top, Moon Ballad 2nd, and Storming Home 3rd. Again I’ll be backing the top rated, Noverre.

In the 5.15 Top rated I have Beauchamp Pilot, then Masterful/Smirk, and Inglenook 3rd. Here I’ll be taking 2nd rated Masterful.

Over at Kelso I’ll be backing Weaver George who I have 2nd rated behind Strong Tartan.

Good luck to everyone who gets involved today.

Chaz,

You`ve just beat me to the punch.

I hope I am not going to spoil your day but I to have Masterful and Noverre down as bets making it my busiest day of the year, ie -

Boreas
Dolorus e/w
Noverre
Masterful
3 x I mentioned earlier in the Cesarewitch.

Good luck to all,

Just quickly the horses I consider likely to win their races today are Boreas, Nayyir/Firebreak, Hugs Dancer/Distant Prospect/Zibeline, Al Jadeed, Moon Ballad, Beauchamp Pilot and away at Kelso Charlieadams and M.Rasen Azertyuiop.

The only ones I'll be backing though are Boreas, Hugs Dance/Distant prospect/Zibeline, Beauchamp Pilot and Charlieadams. Azertyiuiop would be a bet at better than 4/5.

Have a good day all.

Well, no hard luck stories for me. Boreas failed to beat an amazing horse in Persian Punch; a racehorse who’s school report I think would read something like “although not top of the class, he ALWAYS tries his hardest always giving 100%”. Not many horses can win from the front like he can, a gutsy performer, and why I love horse racing.

In the Champion Stakes my top three filled the first three places – just in the wrong order! Noverre just hasn’t reproduced, simple as that.

What goes around comes around in racing, and I can think of many situations where I’ve been on the end of a good luck story. Whether it be luck in running, the winner falling at the last to leave my selection clear, or whatever, and so it is for that reason that when I’ve grabbed the shitty end of the stick I shrug my shoulders and say ‘nevermind’, and I’m sure that Guest felt this way with Beauchamp Pilot in the Darley Stakes. With a clear run/better ride who knows, he’d have won I’m sure.

At Kelso Weaver George held off Charlieadams as hoped and turned the day into an average one instead of a poor one.

Barney.

Sorry it took so long to get back, I made Robandela (a bet) and Rosa Parks (no bet) the c/form horses. Very surprised at your remark and even more at Guest's how could Salim Toto have been a form horse after it's last run.

Clarinch Claymore.

The difference between this horse and Defining, is CC had never thrown in a bad race even when conditions where against it. The same can't be said of D, and I never really expected CC to win. I was looking for a fair price as a saver, couldn't find it so took the 16/1 e/w as a saver instead.

Guest,

This brings me to some of the horses you have been including in your dutching bets. I can't follow some of them, are they really based on VDW? Or is it part of the conspiracy type method? If so, how are the members going to follow them, if their logic isn't on a par with yours? I have to say I could follow and agree with Brooklyn's Gardens. I made him the class/form horse, so well done (and Chaz). Did you consider Needwood Blade yesterday, or is that what you meant about not appearing to greedy?

To day was hard, I had 2 bets that failed Hugs Dancer and Doloras. I am happy to say I missed the other popular VDW type selection, Boreas, Noverre, Moon Ballad, and Beauchamp Pilot. Boreas a possible flaw in the horse, (found in the form book) and price. Noverre didn't make him class or form horse. Moon Ballad couldn't get what I thought was a fair price. Beauchamp Pilot although I was happy he wouldn't bounce, I thought the race was too soon, and a bit of an afterthought. So didn't have the disaster it could have been.

Bet Spencer gets another undeserved slagging for his ride on Boreas. The doubt was there for all to see.

Be Lucky

A bad day but that`s the way it goes.

Noverre didn`t stay and has lost the will to win.

I should have dutched Nayyir/Doloros but didn`t. No one to blame but myself.

Tees Components was yet a/n example of me going against the formbook. About time I learnt.


GUEST,

Firstly, well done yesterday. That said, I`d be interested in any response you make to Mtoto as I also will be interested in the method you used yesterday.

Secondly, Beauchamp Pilot should have won by along way. Very unlucky.

Cheers,

Chaz


I think you are being a touch harsh on Persian Punch when characterising him as "... not top of the class".

It is certainly the case that PP has not so far won a Group 1, and probably never will, but this is, I think, essentially because of restricted opportunities.

Although thought of as a stayer, PP's distance is today's - which is why he had a decent chance of beating Boreas, whom I'm sure would have won over an extended trip such as 2m 2 or 2m 4. He's won at 1m 6 or so, but that is a touch on the short side short, and (I think) he's never won a race of any class over 2m 0.5f.

Its perhaps surprising, but there are no British Group 1s at 2m. In fact, the only British Group 1 race of the right distance band PP could have contested in his whole racing career was the 1996 Leger (in which he did not run), and that is at the low end of his distance range.

Off hand, I can't think of any Irish or French 2m Group 1s either.

PP's record in 2m Group 2s and 3s is impressive - 1999 was the only year since 1996 that he failed to win at least one, and I cannot think of a 2m horse with a better record.

Thus I think at his distance PP can be said to be absolutely top class, the lack of a Group 1 victory being to my mind entirely due to the lack of Group 1 races at his distance.

Persian Punch

While PP couldnt be faulted for willingness to battle and Martin Dwyer is an underrated jockey, the ride Jamie Spencer gave Boreas was ill-judged to put it mildly. He waited at the back too long and the fact that he failed to get within 3 lengths of PP (a horse Boreas beat last time) speaks volumes about his inexperience in calculating pace.
regards,

Fulham,

You have taken my remark about Persian Punch completely out of context. As I said in my post I rate him as a good horse, however, “top of the class” racehorses are those that compete at the highest level (group 1), over the middle distances. PP is not therefore “top of the class” in context.

What actually made me remark about the horse is that he is still in training at 9yo and has performed consistently throughout his career. He’s as good now as he ever was. That is what, in my mind, is great about him.

Statajack
Jamie Spencer,I think a whole thread could be devoted to all the mistakes that he has made this season,especially on favourites.However in his defence,he is a young kid,who has been thrust into the top flight this year,and I suppose some mistakes were inevitable,but I'm not sure that quite so many were envisaged.Well while he learns his craft,we are paying the price.

All in all,not a good day today,my worst of the flat season so far,but with even a small rub of the green,it would have been different,that's part of it though,you have to, take the good and the bad together,tomorrow is another day.

Mtoto/Determined - All my bets this week have been via a combination of VDW methods, but they all use class and form as the basis for final selections.

As I said before when Birjand won, this particular method is quite easy to use and to tell everyone the ins and outs of it would render it a lesser tool for making money. Or put another way, the Champion Lodges and Lord Protectors would not be setting off at those sort of prices if the method was common knowledge. I haven't mentioned a lot of these type of bets before because they are different to the consistency method, but I have included them recently to hopefully show what is possible.

To avoid confusion I can say that Boreas,Charlieadams,Moon Ballad, Beauchamp Pilot and Hugs Dancer were found with the consistency method but were crosschecked using other means.

A couple of other points relate to certain well supported favs today. Tees Component may have appeared to be cleverly placed to many, but in my view had not shown so far the class or form to win such a race as todays. Likewise Trade Fair in the Dewhurst.

Noverre hasn't won a race this season from numerous attempts albeit at mainly top level and also hasn't won over 10 furlongs at any level. Look back to his 2 and 3yo career for more info.

Boreas had proved a good bet last time, but couldn't deliver at a much shorter price this time. He was asked a lot by his jockey but I agree with Chaz that so called luck evens itself out in this game. Likewise with Beauchamp Pilot.

Thanks for your e-mail.
However a reply would be nice,
Swish

Chaz

Hardly out of context. Simply that I hadn't appreciated your idiosyncratic view of what constitutes "top of the class", precluding as it does both sprinters and stayers.

Fulham,

I'm sure you know what I mean.