Ive just been looking at the Cesarewitch through the (1978 pre vdw ability/class ratings) eyes of G. Hall and F. Chester. The result is interesting.
Top 3 cons from those runners 20/1 or under:
Hugd Dancer 6
Miss Fara 8
Rapid Deployment 10
Tees components 10

Top 2 RHR ratings from entire field:
Distant Prospect 118
Palua 118
Miss fara 117
Conquestadora 117
Riyadh 117

Top 2 Daily Mail Ratings for entire field:
Miss fara 78
Palua 77
Common to all three: Miss Fara, improving filly (best rating achieved LTO) set to carry 14lb less actual weight than LTO and wth a further 5lb taken off by useful claimer. trained with this race in mind.
You can draw your own conclusions re G. Hall but lets just hope he followed vdw's advice and didnt put it in a yankee with Boreas, Tomahawk and Moon Ballad.
Back to being busy for me now.
regards,

Hugs Dancer was a horse favoured by the majority on this thread for the Ces', and was posted by me for much the same reasons as Boreas. In an attempt to make some sense of his "disappointing" run I had another look through his form.
At first glance, it appears that he had gone over the top at the end of a hard season, which falls in line with his form of the previous year.
However, on further investigation there are reasonable grounds for assuming that CLASS was his downfall over this C/D.
Although he has run well, ( and won twice) over distances more than 2 miles, the highest rated horse he met in any of those races was rated 92, whereas his record in races between 14 & 16f reads;

0-104 Btn 1l
0-105 " 3l
0-105 Won 1l

Viewed in this way, then he is a better horse over distances up to 2 miles, and his performance yesterday was at least the equal, or probably even better than his previous runs over marathon trips.
In my opinion, there is little doubt that he is still improving, and will be a horse to be reckoned with in something like next years Northumberland Plate.
Food for thought?

Johnd

In my view, Hug's Dancer was the clear class/form horse for the Cesarewitch, with conditions entirely in his favour with one important exception: weight.

The horse has been going steadily up the weights all season. In the Ces. he was running off 13lb higher in relative terms than on his penultimate run, having already gone up 12lb for runs earlier in the season. For an older and exposed horse to win three successive major handicaps is very rare.

I admit to having had a modest EW bet on Hug's Dancer, because he was so clearly the class/form horse. But in the cold light of day it was a VERY questionable bet, and I feel fortunate to have got away with it.

Having run very well in all the circumstances, Hug's Dancer's official rating is unlikely to drop, and I suspect that, for the present, he will prove to be in the handicapper's grip. But maybe one for Guest's "unexposed form" method sometime late next Summer when he's dropped some pounds and a return to winning is indicated.

Statajack - An interesting look at the Ces there, but in line with your final comment, I suspect there were many G Hall backed using this criteria that failed. I don't know, I'm still of the opinion that he couldn't have got the full picture that quickly from just a few articles. True, most of the relevant factors were there hidden in those first few letters from VDW, but they only become apparent after reading much of what else he wrote some time after.

The numerical picture as demonstrated is a good guide when the class and form adds up, but as VDW often said, a good bet doesn't have to be top rated.

I agree with Fulham that Hugs Dancer possibly had done his job for the season, in fact his Ebor win was a shock to most of us. The 3 I backed in the race finished 4th,5th and 6th all running on at the death, but only the 4th was found via consistency. Miss Fara was consistent but didn't have enough exposed 2m+ form for me.

Joyeux Royal at Plumpton looks worth a wager at 4/5 or better today via unexposed means.

Guest,
I agree roughly and I posted the race as a bit of fun, however anyone who follows the principles outlined in the Ces post will get a long term profit with a strike rate around the 40% mark even without looking at form. Especially if they stick with the larger value races.
Whats interesting about the race is how Pipe placed miss Fara, entered in the Ces on a low mark and bringing her to a peak carrying a large weight. This pattern is one that Pipe often uses for top handicaps and there is also weight similarities between Miss F and some of the early (again pre the ability/class ratings) vdw examples which people might find interesting.
regards,

AS I am sure you are aware, a horses official rating is a notional figure and cannot, in itself, have any bearing on a horses physical performance. The level of hardship is created by carrying more physical weight or having to run in higher class.
In the case of Hugs Dancer, he was being asked to carry 7lb more p.w. than he had when succesful in the Ebor, and his improvement in that race was t/s +8lbs, pm +15lbs, suggesting that a 7lb rise was well within his scope for further improvement.
If you are saying that the extra weight, carried over the extra distance, was responsible for his demise, then you are probably arguing that the horse is not as good over this longer distance, after all both races were exactly the same class (from an OR point of view).
I realise that my reading of the race will not fit with some others' beliefs, and I put forward this theory ( Which I am not totally sure of myself ), to promote discussion on how the clear c/f horse was beaten.
A couple of things for you and Guest to ponder;

1. As Hugs Dancer won the Ebor, which was the same class as the Cesarawitch, is it not reasonable to presume this was his best performance of the year?

2. Do either of you really believe that the horse is exactly the same horse over a stiff 18f as he is over a relatively easier 14f?

A couple of other things for you to think upon, ( which I know you have discussed in previous postings)
Rivage Bleu showed his best form over a stiff 20f, and did not reproduce it until racing again in similar circumstances.
Florida Pearl's best form (pre Aintree) was around a sharp 3m on good going,( If I recall correctly ), and once again he didn't reproduce it until racing in similar circumstances.
I await your replies with interest.

JohnD,

You raise some very valid points, particularly with regards to some horses needing specific conditions to perform at their best.

The problem for many however is defining 'best form'. Even within a forum such as this you will get a diverse range of opinions.

Many will view 'best form' by applying the VDW criteria of class (ie. race value), others will view 'best form' as achieving lifetime best SF, others by lifetime best handicap ratings, others still by reference to OR's. Some will take a view that 'best form' can only be acheived by winning the race in question whilst others won't accept that.

I think there is much mileage in assessing a horse's best form as it then opens up a myriad of possibilities not just with regards to race conditions but with others elements such as pace, tactics etc.

However, if we are going to pursue this avenue of thought then we perhaps should first open up the debate as to what constitutes 'best form'.

Cheers

thanks for your reply
i do agree colway showed it still had ability to win races but it has lost ability,i think these are two different points.

Johnd

As to the issue of weight, there is a distinction to be made between actual weight and relative weight, and in my view both are important.

On Saturday, the issue of actual weight was of no concern to me: Hug's Dancer has clearly shown that he can successfully carry weights in excess of 8st 12.

However, the issue of relative weight was a concern and should really have precluded a bet. For example, early in the year Hug's Dancer narrowly beat Distant Prospect, receiving 18lb. Later, on 5lb better terms, DP narrowly reversed placings. Largely because of his last two wins, HD and DP ran off levels on Saturday (ie relatively speaking HD carried 13lb more than when the two last met), and to have re-reversed placings HD would have had to have improved disproportionately vis-a-vis DP. The fact that he finished so close behind is itself of interest.

Whether (as I suspect) HD is currently in the handicapper's grip is an empirical matter, and we'll see in the course of the early part of next Flat season.

More generally, over the last 16 years 14% of handicap winners aged 5 and over went on to win two handicaps on the trot. It is (I think) impossible from RSB to tell how many went on to win three handicaps on the trot, but it would surprise me if it was more than a further 14%, ie from every 1000 5yo and above handicap winners, approx 140 could be expected to win two successive handicaps and of these maybe 20 would win three successive handicaps. In practice, this suggests perhaps 10-12 horses achieve the feat a year, and few, I suspect, do so in races of the class HD has been contesting.

Finally, your two specific questions. I agree that Hug's Dancer's Ebor win was his best performance to date. But I do not conclude from that that the Ebor distance is his best trip, and I have no view as to what that is. The horse has won decent class races from 1m 3 to 2m 5, and unlike some (Persian Punch for example) seems extremely versatile.

JohnD - Hugs Dancers best form was undoubtedly the Ebor, but note under what circumstances it was achieved.

Nothing to disagree with in your final paragraph by the way.

Statajack - Weight was a recurring theme throughout those pre-class/ability selections, but seemingly missed by a lot of readers.

I thank you for your replies, which I will respond to when I have assimilated them fully, in the meantime it is interesting to note that the trainer of Hugs' Dancer states that " There is another big handicap in him (Depending on how much his OR is raised) and then we will aim him at the cup races, which ;
A, Supports Fulhams' contention that the horse is versatile over a variety of distances.
B, Strengthens my standpoint that the horse is still improving.
Next season is going to be very interesting!

CROCK
Thank you for your interest in this debate, and I am sure there is much room for discussion on what constitutes a horses best form, but my personal mission at this stage is to further investigate the statement " The class horse, given other factors, usually wins".
Apropos to this I would like to throw Millenium Force, ( from last Friday ) into the melting pot, and see what emerges. The general consensus was that this was the c/f horse in the race, yet he was beaten, why?????
I have my own opinion on this ( natuarally ), but would welcome the input of yourself and others into this fascinating statement by our mentor.
Regards

The jury is still out on whether HD was beaten by weight or by class/distance in the Cesarawitch.
Fulham argues that relative weights with Distant Prospect indicated that HD would lose, but it is just as reasonable to assume that DP had been trained specifically for this race, as he won it last year, and the distance would favour him more than HD.
It is also pertinent to recall that on at least 2 occcasions VDW said that horses have a specific distance, and many horses have the ability to win at various trips, but only really excel at one. This, I believe, is the reason why Guest was criticised in an earlier post for his support of Golan over 10f.
It is also interesting to note that in his "Spells it all out" revelation he made no reference at all to weight.
However, as in most racing appraisals, there is no definitive answer, so you pays your money and you takes your choice. It will still be interesting to see how HD performs next season.
Regards

If you get the chance, have a look at Internationalguest 4.45.N.
Cheers mate.

I have had a look at INTERNATIONALGUEST 4.45 NOTT, and think it is worth a bet, but not strong,
Cheers
Swish

Bush Park has everything in his favour, and should be a good bet today.

I had just written a long post with ins and outs but lost it and now not time,

summary watch international guest and the channon horse, king halling poss but ground worries so i end up with travellers tale, but i wouldnt even dutch them.

well spotted with DP a bt like PP and PK,

when does a cross check become the bet? or which is the bet first and the others are cross checks?

I am praying I didn't put you off!

You didn't, I did,B*******!
I am not sure I understand your question so this is only a stab at the answer, ( My personal method, you understand ).
To save time I always look through a race to see if there is a "winner in the race", and only if I consider there is a likely one would I then proceed with all the crosschecks.
This answer probably bears no relation to what you were asking ( or trying to point out), if so, let me know.
Swish,
Well done, hope you got the double figure price.

Beacon Light...placed to win??????

beacon light was out of form.How many times do you have to be told? LOL.

now beacon wood thats another thing, I have had a look at this online (poo) and have narrowed it down to seven.

I will have another look in the AM, see if I can get down to ONE.