Thanks Mtoto

quote:

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Originally posted by Mtoto:
Swish, I may fall flat on my face, but I think this is an easy race. I can only see one winner.

Be Lucky

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Hope you are right Mtoto
I aint playing in this but Gunter ran well enough 30th Nov being well there at todays distance

Carburys cross
Also well there at todays distance on going not really to his liking

Fast ground today

10 bob E/W CC then

LA LANDIERE sire stats: 1/9 dist. 0/10 good but 4/13 g-f

Graham

You are being too forgiving. Work your way down the field in ability rating order excusing nothing except on the grounds of being completely outclassed (the VDW example being Gaye Chance) or falling WHEN STILL REALISTICALLY IN THE RACE (the VDW example being Beat the Retreat). (And, interestingly, VDW said that he backed neither.)

You will find just three form horses and, if one was being very critical, it could be argued that there were only two.

re Fondmort and the weight, the race told its own story, and for those who weren't watching, the jockey underlined it afterwards.

Fulham,

Wonder if you could name the 2/3 horses you consider were in form?

I watched the race the race, and thought the sloppy jump at the 3rd last had as much to do with the defeat as the weight.

Be Lucky

MTOTO
Just my opinion, but I don't think Fondmort stayed; He was travelling quite well until the 3rd last, and went backwards from then on.
He is entered in the Cathcart( 2.5ml) at Cheltenham, and could be interesting there.
The winner won well, but well up in class and distance, it would have been difficult to make a case for him before the race(IMO).

Mtoto

If necessary I'll post the form horses, but I was really responding to Graham, who seems to be to be very much on the right lines, and who may wish to test his approach in the light of the minor modification (founded, as ever, in VDW's examples) I've suggested.

I venture to suggest that weight and jumping performance may be linked, rather than separate issues. Today Fondmort was trying to win with 21lb more than the weight he carried successfully in his best run to date in a comparable race, having failed in lower class lto when carrying only half as much more. It is interesting that he fell then when under pressure, and put in a poor one today in similar circumstances. He might have fallen lto, and made the poor jump today, even if he'd only been carrying 10st in both races, but with such weights he'd have been under much less pressure and, I suspect, would have jumped more cleanly.

Similarly, whether or not a horse "stays" may also be linked to weight. Neither Fondmort nor the winner had been raced over today's distance before, but one was massively up in weight compared with what he'd shown he could manage, whereas the other was carrying several pounds less than he'd won with on his last three runs, albeit in lower class. VDW had useful things to say about weight, and showed us even more in his examples.

This was one tipsters view of the race:

La Landiere has four things going for her in the Racing Post Chase. Six of
the last ten winners had won their last race (two others had finished
second), and six of the last ten winners were 8-y-olds or younger. And with
the ground so fast over fences yesterday, the fact that she's the only
runner with winning form on good to firm going must be significant. The
fourth factor is her excellent jumping and that should be the key to
allowing her to stay this trip of three miles - the less energy a horse
uses by making mistakes, the further it can race, with Desert Orchid the
great example of that pattern. The only other horse to fit the profile is
Chicuelo, but his jumping is highly unlikely to pass this test. McCoy has
chosen Montreal, but he was beaten too easily at Ludlow last time to be
considered in this class. Maximise has been well backed as he likes fast
ground, but has looked dead slow this season and I can't have him. Carbury
Cross is the other runner that should handle the ground, but his three
handicap runs on r-h tracks have produced a 6th in he Whitbread when
favourably handicapped, but two 'P' s this season off his current mark.

Thought you might find that interesting.

Cheers

fulham,all, could i ask about todays racing post, handicap,,,were you successful in your approach to this race or did you leave this race alone, as mtoto, stated la landiere, was coming from novice class competing against useful handicappers, i know weight can often balance other factors out, but la landiere carried 11-7,,, a fair weight in comparison,,,,grundy

Grundy

You place me in a difficulty, because basically I agree with Johnd that it is not appropriate for people to claim, after the event, that they backed this or that horse. So I would rather not discuss the bets that I made, or did not make, today - except of course to hope that you and others who followed this thread cashed in with Ibin St James. (That was not a VDW selection, and one I've clearly signalled, so I trust that mentioning it won't unduly perturb Johnd.)

To try to be helpful VDW-wise, though, I would make the following observations:

1) VDW treated form in handicaps somewhat differently to form in non handicaps and in my view, based on studying many of his examples, he was less forgiving on the issue of "in-formness";

2) it is also my view that there were only two absolutely clear-cut in form horses in today's big race, and palpably La Landiere was one of them (and if you study VDW's examples you'll see that he was fond of backing horses with a consistency aggregate of 3!);

3) Mtoto recently highlighted the example of Desert Hero, essentially questioning whether a horse that had won only at much lower class could really be a plausible selection for a high class race like the Imperial Cup. But VDW gives us the answer unequivocally - yes, in the right circumstances. In the Desert Hero example, those circumstances included (a) there being no higher ability rated horse in the race that was a form horse and (b) the derisorily low weight DH was carrying;

4) neither Spirit Leader a fortnight ago, nor La Landiere today, was highest rated on ability in their races - but how many of those with higher ability ratings were form horses?

5) in the case of Spirit Leader, I was unsure about one higher ability rated horse (Copeland), but he had no chance at the weights (much like Fondmort today). From the point of view of which were the form horses, I found today much easier;

6) but just because, in the absence of a higher ability rated in form horse, a horse becomes the c/f (or a 2nd c/f against an "impossible" c/f like Copeland was if one regarded him as a form horse), it does not necessarily become a bet. The next issue for consideration is whether the conditions are right;

7) I have argued (and others have disagreed) that there was no question mark about the suitability of the conditions for Spirit Leader. (And indeed, following the recent correspondence in the Raceform Update, I am currently in dialogue with Graham Wheldon on that point. Graham broadly takes the James Willoughby view - that the very fact that a horse is at long odds necessarily means that there are question marks about it. He doesn't follow NH racing, but I've asked him to get the Update's top NH man (however he or she is) to analyse Spirit Leader in the context of the race in question, and identify any question marks, which I will then hope to prove to Graham's satisfaction were, in reality, not question marks at all.);

8) unlike Spirit Leader, which at 14/1 was a cracking bet I was glad to see several other VDW followers had, there were question marks about the suitability of the conditions today as regards La Landiere. Unlike SL, he was unproven over the trip and, although down in actual weight compared with recent runs was hardly carrying a derisory weight, like Desert Hero and Spirit Leader. Further, La Landiere was less than half Spirit Leader's price, and there was another form horse much nearer La Landiere's ability rating than Non So was to Spirit Leader's;

9) so, where it was a question of filling one's boots with Spirit Leader, La Landiere today was a more balanced call. Certainly the most likely winner in the race, but only 6/1, and with some question marks. I wouldn't criticise whichever bet/no bet decision anyone who analysed the race from a VDW perspective made.

10) Finally, on the matter of weight, VDW's letter published under the sub-head "Temperament Bedevils Most of the Punters", and printed as item 49 in "The Golden Years ..." has much to say that needs pondering. I think it would be fair to say that, unlike some contributors to this thread, VDW clearly regarded weight as important. But like (almost) everything else, VDW's rules-of-thumb were not absolute, and from this perspective the Roushayd example has, for me, an aspect I do not yet understand.

Mtoto,
FONDMORT was unlucky to nearly fall near the end. It looked beaten but might not have been.
I had a small bet on MOOR LANE yesterday which definetly looked beaten but found reserves of energy to rally and win the race. Truth is we shall never know if FONDMORT would have won.
In any event your selection did far better than mine which was nowhere.
Always interested in your comments on races,
All the best
Swish

Fulham,
No wonder you write about history for a living. Because you sure love writing about historic events on this message board.
I shall give you credit though. Because even though none of us will ever know if you can pick a winner, or not, your reply to me when I gave you 30 reasons why 80% winners can't be achieved and I asked you if you ever got drunk was quite frank, so much so that I know it is true.
In fact I would bet on it being true,
OOOps there goes temperament again!

Don't forget a sense of humour is a blessing,
Cheers
Swish

Fulham
Bet I could beat you or VDW at pool.
In fact I have opened a book.
It goes SWISH 1-20 FULHAM 8-1, VDW 50-1.
I know the book isn't balanced but I'll risk it,
Cheers
Swish

Swish,
Glad to see you backed Moor lane,I backed it as well going on last years form and I was hoping it would go well on its 3rd completed run,(well hoping it would complete),As soon as i looked at that race Moor lane stuck out a mile,Is this how you seen the race,
Rab

Rab
I got the horse (MOOR LANE) cos of its old speed fig and its drop in class from then.
If you are still up I would not mind a chat with you,
Swish

Rab
e-mail or reply on Gummy if you would like a chat.
If not (cos say you have gone to bed), no problem another time is fine,
Swish

Swish,
Sorry i need to go to bed,Will email you tomorrow,Rab

Swish

You wrote: "I got the horse (MOOR LANE) cos of its old speed fig and its drop in class from then".

We thus share a tendency to write about historical events on this board - presumably because we both believe that, generally speaking, the best guide to what a horse will do today is what he has shown he can (or can't) do previously. Not an infallible guide, of course, but just about the best one we have. You, however, have the capacity to present your views much more succinctly than me.

On a different note, the reports about the York supporters' money raising seem hopeful, while suggesting there is still a bit more to be done. Similarly, Fulham FC's recent results - and those of the other strugglers - have offered hope that we may hang on to our Premiership place, but there is still a bit more to be done. I'm taking a break from posting in order to sort out various things before the start of the Flat (though to honour what I said to Mtoto I'll make an exception, if necessary, re the form horses in yesterday's big race). But hopefully by the time I resume things will be certain (and positive) for both clubs.

Enjoy your break Fulham.

false fav anyone?

435a