Well I looked again and rather than dismiss any of the Pipe/McCoy runners will add

Warwick 2.35 - Horus/Hermes III book

Kempton 3.55 - Ceanannas Mor

and I'm still looking for a reason to dismiss Stormez (Kempton 3.25), other than a Pipe/McCoy four-timer

AROWSON
1.05W NEVER Outstanding value for money
1.20K MIXTER/AGINATO NO chance.
1.35 VOL SOLITAIRE totally agree.
1.50 K

AROWSON
Sorry half way through the post it was all lost, Never mind hold on I shall do it
Wait on
SWISH

To carry on
WAHIBA SANDS I agree.
2.05 WOLV Your selectons have no chance.
2.20 KEMP PUNTAL looks class,I agree.
2.30 WOLV I would pick same 2 to dutch.
2.55 KEMP DEANOS BEANO really did the biz when it beat BARRACOUDA. Should p**** it. Only doubt I have is that when it did BARRACOUDA, it was absolutely laid out for that race,

Might be that was its last real effort.

Swish

What do you fancy (if anything) in the Kempton 1.05? My selections have improved performances lto, Mixterthetrixster when upped in class.

Warwick 2.05 - .

Rith Dubh (AB93) and Djeddah (AB193) are 'class' but not in form, and Djeddah does not have a good record at this distance.

Mistletoe (AB110) is being dropped in class, but has never raced the distance. High ability rating comes from 2 wins, one of which was a 180 Mare Only Novice Chase.

Moral Support (AB68) has not really shown any form since the 2000 Welsh National.

Now I'm back to Nativetrial etc.

Kempton 2.55 - Having beaten Stromness 20l lto and no reason to see a turnaround in that form, the only negative is the horses attitude.

Swish

What do you fancy (if anything) in the Kempton 1.05? My selections have improved performances lto, Mixterthetrixster when upped in class.

Warwick 2.05 - .

Rith Dubh (AB93) and Djeddah (AB193) are 'class' but not in form, and Djeddah does not have a good record at this distance.

Mistletoe (AB110) is being dropped in class, but has never raced the distance. High ability rating comes from 2 wins, one of which was a 180 Mare Only Novice Chase.

Moral Support (AB68) has not really shown any form since the 2000 Welsh National.

Now I'm back to Nativetrial etc.

Kempton 2.55 - Having beaten Stromness 20l lto and no reason to see a turnaround in that form, the only negative is the horses attitude.

arrowson/swish

I saw deeno's beano lto at haydock

mccoy had to whip it to get it to run, it had to be hard driven after a furlong and stayed like that the whole first circuit.

At the bend near the stables he tried to go home for a lie down and it was a miracle mccoy got him to run past "more thrashing".

I notice mccoy got a ban for excesive use of the whip after that race, it was probably at the start.

I wouldn't back it with free money.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

arowson - I agree with Barney, Deano's Beeno is out of form. It should have won its last race. I don't think the LTO distance being 2M7.5F is enough to forgive it the run. As you say it beat Barracouda in a class 402 in its penultimate race. LTO should have been a walk in the park.

As for Wahiba Sands, I don't think Kempton is its course. It wants more of a test of stamina. If the race was run at Ascot I'd be with you.

All the best
hedgehog

Hello Everyone,
Not been able to post recently but had a look at Kempton Tomorrow and of course comments are welcome.
Racing Post Chase.
IMO the class/form horse is Fondmort with Gunther McBride as second c/f.
I couldn't back Fondmort with a weight he has never carried to victory before in this class over further that he has run before.Gunther has a lot going for it but is not in the first 3 consistency and had a tough race LTO. So a no bet race for me.
In the novice chase(1.55) I make Empervier the class/form horse with Scotts grey the second but although I have doubts re distance concerning Empervier he looks the likely winner.

Good Luck

Graham

Graham,

A couple of questions if I may? First, how do you make Gunther Mcbride a form horse? Why does a horse have to be in the first 3 for consistency? VDW made Right-hand Man the c/form horse, and he wasn't in the first 3. Isn't just consistent enough?

I make Fondmort the best horse in the race, right or wrong I'm not worried by the weight. I make him the best horse, and the handicapper agrees, I make that a plus. I think he is a very good bet at the 12/1 taken. He has speed, acts on the course and going. Finished well up the Cheltenham hill, against some very good horses. Think the distance will be a help rather than a hindrance.

I think the other consistent horses will have to run the race of their life to win. Most of them have run their best races in novice company. The established horses that are consistent have major negatives, (class and going). I make Gunther out of form, does anyone else agree, or am I missing something?

If you play be lucky

Mtoto

I also give Fondmort a great chance but also give Maximise the same,How does it come out in your ratings?,Rab

ARROWSON
I never saw you request for what I thought might win the MIXTER THE TRIXTER race till now. (I am a night owl)
I wouldn't have got the winner anyhow.

To All
That RACING POST CHASE (3.05 KEMPTON by the way)
Is so difficult I would rather leave it.
However, if my arm was twisted I would go for BOLD INVESTOR,
Never ignore Mtoto though. He knows what he is talking about.
I know its a good game to tackle the hardest races and one gets enjoyment out of it. But to really try and solve that race I would have to spend, maybe 2 hours on it and even then I would probably get it wrong.
Don't any of you think that trying to solve a race where there are only 2 or 3 realistic contenders, is less mentally draining and more rewarding??
Cheers
Swish

By the way my 13 year old son told me WAHIBA SANDS was aloser today and duly picked the winner ESKLEYBROOK @7-1 for which I invested £1 for him. He picked the winner on his own using skills learned from me,and his uncle.
Wish I had taken notice!!!
Swish

Mtoto / Graham,

I`m in the very early stages of my evaluation on the Racing Post but my early thoughts on Gunther Mcbride and Fondmort are,

If one takes GM Sandown running at face value where he showed nothing from the distance admittedly on very heavy ground which is not supposed to suit then one can consider him out of form. That said, he was made favourite on the day so are we to assume he was expected.

If ignoring that run then his Hennessy running, again in my opinion makes him a form horse.

Given his course record, todays going, etc I will be playing on the safe side and making him a form horse.


Fondmort - won a class 580 in very good style 2 runs back over 21 fur`s on a stiff track and was then dropped in class(value) although up in Grade over 5 fur`s shorter on a speed track.

In hindsight I suspect Mr Henderson was asking questioning himself on that placement. Fondmort suffered a very heavy fall and in my opinion would have finished 3rd at best.

Not a downturn in form in my opinion. Fondmort is therefore a form horse and given that he is the top rated on ability he is the class / form horse.

Of these 2 form horses ( excluding the remainder for now ) which do I prefer today ?

CAPABILITY.

GM romped home in this event last year. One must remember that it was not the strongest Racing Post Chase in the recent past. The top 2 rated horses in the field being rated 145 and 141.

Fondmort was impressive at Cheltenham in Dec`br and his jump at the last and the way he finished up the hill was a sight to remember.
The top 2 rated horse in the field that day were rated 164 ( in form C.Malta) and Fadalko rated 162.

Fondmort has the best form and to quote Mtoto is the best horse in the race.

The big question is as Graham as pointed out, can he give all this weight away in such a competitive race ?

The jury is still out on this one.

Cheers,

Having already nailed my colours to Fondmorts mast, it may be worth pointing out that his Cheltenham run was so much better than his Wincanton run over the same distance, that he may even improve again for this further step up in trip.
In the Lingfield Derby Trial, Indian Creek and Adiemus stand out, (IMO), but as it is only a 'trial', ther may be some doubt as to the seriousness of their intentions.

SWISH
Good to see you taking an interest in this thread again, it is certainly looking a bit livelier. Any chance of some of your further thoughts on today's racing? Luck for today.

Mtoto,
Thanks for the reply.
I have retained Gunther McBride as a form horse based on his last but one race in the Hennessy.I rightly or wrongly forgave his last run because IMO he was unsuited to the going and as a result failed to stay up the hill.In the Hennessy he helped to set a good pace and was still there at the last.He finished close to good horses like Gingembre Harbour Pilot and Hussard Collanges and had the likes of Marlborough behind him.I agree with you that Fondmort is the best horse in the race but for the reasons given relative to todays opposition I couldn't make him a bet.
Re consistency it is just a personal preference in that I am following the consistency method ie must be in the top 3 of the first 5 in the betting to make a bet.
I don,t hold myself up as an expert in VDW and like you would welcome anyone else's comments on these discussion points.
Hope that helps.
All the bset for today.

Graham

Hi all,
Re-Racing Post Chase I have to agree with the majority here that Fondmort is far and away the c/f horse. He should stay and won't mind the ground.
La Landiere has winning form on g/f ground and if he she stays will be a big threat.
Chicuelo ground too fast for him.
Exit To Wave is interesting as he will get the trip and the better ground will suit him.
Montreal the pick of AP. has a lot of improving to do in this class to figure here.
Ground wrong for Ryalux and Historg.
Bold Invester out of form.
Zafarabad needs to improve.
As for trends only 2 winners in the last 10 years were not in the top 4 in betting and only one has carried over 11-5 and that was Gloria Victis who was top class.
I think it could well be between Fondmort and Exit To Wave here.
Whatever you do today best of luck,
See you soon, Mike.

Rab,

Maximise is one of the horses that's best form is in novice company. His one venture into handicaps didn't go very well. He is quite a long way behind Fondmort on my ratings, and even then I think he may be flattered.

I don't like taking a novice, or a horse who's best run is in a novice race against experienced horses. The thinking is it is far easier to record a good time if the pressure is not there. Of the experienced horses......

Gunther Mcbride, hasn't confirmed his good run in this race last year. Maybe a little harsh but has he lost it? Stable not in the best of form, although his Kempton record is impressive. Don't think he is value on what he has produced this year.
Chiceulo, back on a sharp right-handed track. Think his jumping will go to pieces in this class again.
Ryalux, good consistent horse that is a little lacking in class. Bit surprised he has a strike rate of 31%, but his best wins have been in lower class.
Zafarabad, Much the same as above, with an even better strike rate 36%
Historg outclassed, with the course, distance, and possibly going against it.
Exit To Wave, this one I had a good look at. Best form at Ascot, so course maybe against. Best form in the book on soft or heavy, if he is better on good going may be a big danger. Was going to have a saver on him, but I think he will lack the speed at the finish.

Swish, I may fall flat on my face, but I think this is an easy race. I can only see one winner.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
If you feel that sure about FONDMORT I shall back it.
May have a little on BOLD INVESTOR though
Swish