Boozer/Johnd.

Thanks for finding and posting the article I was trying to find. I couldn't find it last night, was starting to think I was having a senior moment.

Fulham,

I think I agree about Compton Bolter being the most likely bet for VDW. I do wonder what he would have thought about the weight factor. He was a bet for me the only worries were the possibility of the going changing, and I didn't expect such a good price.

I also agree with Mikeddy, the beauty of VDW is it's versatility. As long as the logical basics are used, it can be made to work in many ways. I don't know if Fulham backed CB, but if he did we both approached the race from different angles. VDW being the common denominator, and it works for us both.

Investor,

I think you will find the horse was out all of last season injured, not 100% sure can't find my notes. Another senior moment ?

Be Lucky

Investor

These things can only be matters of opinion, but I think you may have under-estimated CB's performance over the trip on 12 April. Still, caution is very much safer than the opposite: no one gets into trouble by not betting when they see a doubt.

mtoto,

It was out following knee surgery

1.55 Newbury tomorrow,

In formness the VDW way rears its head in no uncertain terms in this very interesting race.

Top on ability rating = 89 Rocket Ship who is also 3rd best in on the time merit check ( Split Second ) but is he considered a form horse ????

If my understanding is correct RS whilst in form is unproven with the weight of 9-07 therefore should not be considered in form the VDW way ????

Any comments,

Determined
I would say at a quick glance that Rocket ship is most certainly a form horse,But i would be keeping my hand in my pocket,I know that one of them's got to win (sorry mtoto) but that weight is enough to stop me looking any further but that's just my opinion and i'm sure i won't sway your'e thoughts.

I wonder if anyone sees the implication of weight the VDW way
I wonder if Fulham/investor really understand the Logic in Hcp races
I think I do
And i arent VDW all the way through at all

But do fulham and Investor really understand it
Would anybody be prepared to elaborate on their understanding of weight and VDW
and the logical thinking behind it
I doubt it
all this I know something that you dont crap will not get anybody anywhere
especially if you are Wrong

Weight,

The jury is still out for me and until I have time to research the subject in depth this factor will remain a concern.

With regards to Rocket Ship, I will be letting him run tomorrow for several reasons. That said, even with an in form Santando in the race I have RS as the most probable winner.

First impressions on tomorrow`s cards do however suggest it could be my busiest betting day for alongtime.

Evening Guest,

A direct request even though you have recently made your thoughts clear.

I know several posters on here and that certainly includes me still value your comments.

I`m not asking for any of your named selections but your lists of class/form horses are very educational and having such sometime tomorrow would be gratefully appreciated.

Thank you in anticipation,

VDW METHODOLOGY ALMOST CERTAINTY 4.05 Hamilton

guys I am willing to stick out my neck and give you what to my mind is an VDW certainty tomorrow at Hamilton & before the race is even run.
1st 6 in betting f/c
Lady Bear ability rating 109 b(best class won) /best won-c230(£ Value)
Dumaran ab 148b/ best won b290
Prince Hector ab 70c/ best won c100
Football Crazy ab 56c/ best won c70
Lots of Love ab 66c/ best won c140
Terfel ab 30/ best won e30

A two horse race after reading the form between Dumaran & Lady Bear.Lady bear beat Dumaran over 1m on good ground at Ayr last year and reoposses on almost same terms.To my mind most punters who delve back as far will back the fav(Lady Bear) but careful reading of the form lets you see that Dumaran isnt half the horse on good as he is on soft.He also has the stamina to win at Warwick over 2 mls over Hurdles but the speed to win better class races & on better class tracks than Lady Bear on softish conditions.Lady Bears winning has all been done on flat tracks with no stamina pressure, her last run admittedly on paper a good one over 9f at Newkt when 2nd to Aldora in a fillies and Mares race is tempered with the fact she hung badly(a sign of tiredness)To my mind she will not get up the notoriously stiff Hamilton finish over this extended 1M 1/2 f.It has been pissing down here in Scotland all day on Friday and the forecast is the same on Sat.Dumaran on his 1st run of the season ran 6th in the Lincoln over 1m and then ran 3L third behind H'cap good thing LINGO over a trip the trainer states did not suit & neither did the faster ground.He has won over 9f at Newbury on soft and will appreciate the very stiff finish.To my mind he has had the ROUSHAYED TREATMENT this season & is primed to win today.By the way my ability ratings are rounded up or down so dont come on and give me grief because Im a couple of points out from your methods of rating ability.
E.G peeps might want to make some thing out of a 75 class race when to my mind its no better than a 70 class race.My best results come from grading races to the thousand against to the hundred, also I am from the North and go to the racing often and have followed good looking winners which have come up here and won well only to see them dissapoint when tried in tougher similiar graded races down south a B-class winner in the north isnt as good generally as a B-class winner down south.
If anyone bets it I can assure you I am not only betting a tenner on it, if it does not win Mrs Bio will not be going out on Saturday nights for a month.
I am sticking my neck & bank balance out on this one , I hope if you bet it you will find the time to read the form on Sporting Life.com or Racing Post online to see where Im coming from.Betting bank either £225 or £0 or £900.As VDW says from memory the compulsion to bet must be overcome & instead of betting £10 on a horse think about how much further form reading you would do if you had £50 on it(Paraphrasing)

[This message was edited by biotechnology on May 17, 2003 at 01:17 AM.]

[This message was edited by biotechnology on May 17, 2003 at 01:23 AM.]

SORRY I was too late to edit my post prev but if you look into the form on Lady Bears last run at Hamilton on soft at this distance the form reads outpaced final furlong,never noticed this beforehand and only compliments what I posted earlier from my Bank of £225 I will also bet an extra £75 because of this late info.I think the race will be run at a decent clip with Dumaran tracking the leaders and Lady Bear held up further back, Dumaran will take it up at the 2f pole and be challenged by the Lady but will stay on too strongly for the field,Lots of love will be third.
I stand to be corrected

At this time of year 8 hours, 2 for you 10 for me. Nothing embarassing about it. No time for your race/horses yet, I'll try to do it by Monday night.

Boozer
There is a quote from vdw that i often think about

"when everything lines up the horse concerned is seldom beaten".... These are the types of horses i'm looking for everyday,I may let the odd one go but all in all i do o.k

A belated answer to your query. The lesson was in the reasons for the 8l turnaround in form between SOTS and Nasij, which made a mockery of the 4lb weight difference.
I would be interested in your views on weight, if you are prepared to share them, if not, I can understand why.

Bio
I wish you the very best of luck with your'e investment today.

Bio,

I am not being negative in anyway with your excellant analysis but what do you make of the fact that it has never won at the distance of 1 mile and ladybear has won 6?

Bio thanks for that it makes sense to me.

It is extremely simplistic but more importantly 100% logical I have perhaps made it sound more mysterious and intriguing than it actually is.

No doubt I will have plenty of time next Friday at Ponte to astound you with my pearls of wisdom

Bio T

Brave call
Hope it wins for you

Fulham

Wrong thread I know but did you get anywhere with Luvbet
I lost £29 with them and £50 with another firm
It is Not the amount that annoys me but the principal
How they can classify money in a punters account as part of their assets is beyond me.
Thieves

Nothing like nailing your colours firmly to the mast. I really hope it wins for you! In view of your confidence, have you considered a forecast?

determined,

I have put prince nureyeve on the tipping challenge hes in the race against your rocketship,

He is selected via the 2-3 yrold method and is a bet in this race

Have a look at his form- no way is rocketship the class horse,with prince nureyev his first race was the chesam.

Guest
I would just like to reiterate what Determined has said,I think that you can see that there has been advances in the right direction by a good few on this thread now,Having said that it would still be nice to see you post your thoughts on the class/form horses, Even if it just means that we can check them against our own.I certainly don't need you to post selections(not taking anything away from your'e selection process) but it would add to the confidence if the same conclusions were drawn,I hope you give this some thought as your'e contributions are important to any individual who has a serious interest in vdw.