Nice surprise,

I have just finished typing my post and find Guest has posted meantime. Looks as though my evaluations agree which gives me confidence.


GUEST,

People like me need your posts to progress and I am sure I will not be the only to welcome your thoughts.

THANK YOU KINDLY,

Regarding Luvbet
Thanks for the info

Guest
thanks very much,It really will be a shame if you do not post anymore.

Rocket Ship,

It's not the weight that stops me backing him, I do wonder if the handicapper has taken note of the trainer rather than the form. I also think the course may be wrong. My BEST HORSE in this is Santando.

Swing Wing, is my BEST HORSE in this. He would have been my selection for The Chester Cup if he had run.

Hawk Wing would have had to perform better in his last race to be the selection in this. Must admit I was tempted to ignore the run on the dirt, but I can't, so will only watch.

Saint Alebe is my BEST HORSE, and I think strongest bet of the day.

Good luck if you play.

Be Lucky

quote:

---

Originally posted by Guest:
Determined/Investor - In view of Determineds request, I have listed the class/form horses for the main races today below. However, I think I have given plenty of class/forms in the past for anyone to eventually get the picture. Contrary to what some on here think, class/form evaluation never changes and it doesn't matter if an example is from today or 20 years ago. For that reason I am going to stick to what I said last week. One more evaluation for the Derby next month, then that is it.

Just one point for Bio. In my view VDW would not see Dumaran as a certainty today especially given the presence of Lady Bear, who has shown better form recently than Dumaran and also get's some weight. Best of luck though even if you do appear to be placing all your eggs in one basket, something VDW would have frowned upon for certain. When he said place a proper bet on a selection, it was providing you had sufficient in your tank to cover yourself in the long run.

Newbury

2.25 Bangalore c/f, Persian Punch 2nd c/f
3.00 Hawkwing c/f, Domedriver 2nd c/f
3.35 Barolo c/f

Thirsk
3.15 Excellento c/f, Mubeen 2nd c/f - Mubeen speed/form, Excellento 2nd speed/form

Nottingham
3.20 Rag Top c/f, Impressive Flight 2nd c/f - Impressive Flight sp/f, Rag Top/Fancy Lady 2nd sp/f

Hamilton
4.05 Dumaran c/f, Lady Bear 2nd c/f

---

Thanks for the reply guest,I havent chewed the gum with you before so Hi!
You seem to have a lot of respect here so I acknowledge what your saying.I only have 10-12 big bets per flat season and this is the 2nd of them the first being Moon Ballad at Nad Al Sheba.I do only have £225 in my betting bank just now but I will top it up if I lose.I will certainly not go hungry and I am only placing the bet what I can afford.When Roushayed won his race at Epsom there were other animals with better recent form than he, there are other ways of evaluating races not just the more popular method.what a horse does in its last two furlongs of a race,is the main reason of selecting Dumaran.To my mind Lady bear with only 1lb less on her back than she has ever won with will struggle up the hill whereas Dumaran will stay on stoutly.He also loves undulating tracks and likes going round bends, he has L.Keniry a 3lb claimer on his back who has won on him in the past

MTOTO,

My confidence in Barolo has just dropped a notch in view of your comments on Saint Alebe.

Good luck,

Bullseye barney boy
Go to the top of the class
Brilliant

Barney
yum yum yum yum yum,Well done mate,I hope you backed it.

oh yes


35/1 , 38/1, 40/1


LOL

Cheers nessie ive saved those, im printing off all your posts to try & figure out how you are going about things.

Bio i could`nt find a bet today myself, but im on your horse at Hamilton as i think you know what your on about, you work similarly to classform who used to post in the update .

Ive practisng cut and pasting, sorry that posts disapeared. Don't like the last race much.

 NEWBURY, 17 May 2003, 1:55, TFM Cyntergy Handicap (Class C) (For The London Gold Cup) (3yo,0-95),Winner £9,787.49,(1m3f5y)1m3f GOOD, 14 Runners Handicap

 Prince Nureyev, .......................................................................................Form 3-7-6  (16)  Av = 15.7k** , Ab = 7k  Score=3+1
 58%  39B 10f 6/31 GF Bat  13K    (11 days)**      (Chk Dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from B, BUT chk figures
 192%  76B 7f 7/13 Sft Asc  22K    (280 days)   (UP in dist, lengths)
 129%  94B 7f 3/3 GF Asc  12K    (293 days)   (UP in dist, PLACED **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Double Obsession, .......................................................................................Form 1-6-5  (12**)  Av = 12k** , Ab = 4k  Score=4+2
 100%  87C 12f 5/6 GF Chs  10K    (10 days)**      (Chk Dist Unpl)    Same class C, BUT chk figures
 194%  77B 7f 6/13 Sft Asc  22K    (280 days)   (UP in dist, Unpl)
 38%  83D 7f 1/¾L Gd Ayr  4K    (299 days)(g)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
   .................................. (87%)
 Santando, .......................................................................................Form 1-3-1  (5**)  Av = 8k, Ab = 6.3k  Score=4+5
 98%  86C 12f 1/hd GF Chs  10K    (10 days)**      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)    Same class C  IMPROVING ***
 83%  81C 10f 3/2 GF Nmk  9K    (30 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
 45%  80D 10f 1/nk Gd Don  5K    (58 days)(g)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (59%)
 Rocket Ship, .......................................................................................Form 1-4-1  (6**)  Av = 7.3k, Ab = 8.5k  Score=3+4
 95%  92C 9f 1/1 GS Sal  9K    (13 days)**    (UP in dist,  + WIN **)    Same class C,  CHK for improv
 49%  86D 9f 4/4 Gd Kem  5K    (56 days)(g)   (UP in dist, lengths)
 72%  79E 7f 1/2 Fm Yor  8K    (218 days)   (UP in dist,  + WIN **)
   .................................. (57%)


 NEWBURY, 17 May 2003, 3:00, Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes (Class A) (Group 1) (4yo+),Winner £116,000.00,1m GD-FM, 8 Runners 

 Hawk Wing, .......................................................................................Form 2-2-7  (11**)  Av = 666.3k** , Ab = 91.5k  Score=4+3
 100%  95x 10f 7/17 Fs Arl  1424K    (203 days)  (Down in dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 1424K,  CHK for improv
 15%  121A 8f 2/2 GF Asc  178K    (231 days)(g)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 36%  123x 10f 2/shd Gd Leo  397K    (252 days)  (Down in dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Domedriver, .......................................................................................Form 1-1-2  (4**)  Av = 152k** , Ab = 113k  Score=3+10
 3%  124x 8f 2/snk Gd Sai  37K    (16 days)**    (** DIST  PLACED **)    UP in class from 37K, BUT chk figures
 35%  125x 8f 1/¾L 8Y Arl  381K    (203 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
 3%  115x 8f 1/hd GS Lon  38K    (224 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (26%)
 Where Or When, .......................................................................................Form 1-4-1  (6**)  Av = 78k, Ab = 71.3k  Score=3+7
 16%  126A 8f 1/2 GF Asc  178K    (231 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **    Same class A  IMPROVING ***
 3%  114A 8f 4/½L GF Goo  40K    (266 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 1%  112A 8f 1/2 GF Goo  16K    (287 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (12%)
 Olden Times, .......................................................................................Form 4-3-1  (8**)  Av = 71.7k, Ab = 30k  Score=3+5
 2%  119A 9f 1/1 GF Nmk  29K    (31 days)(g)     (Chk Dist  + WIN **)    Same class A, BUT chk figures
 8%  118A 8f 3/5 GF Nby  99K    (364 days)(g)(c)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 7%  115x 8f 4/5 GS Lon  87K    (615 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (10%)


 HAMILTON, 17 May 2003, 4:05, Variety Club of Scotland Classified Stakes (Class C) (3yo+,0-90),Winner £9,906.00,(1m65y)1m½f GD-SFT, 12 Runners 

 Dumaran, .......................................................................................Form Pl-6-8  (24)  Av = 30.7k** , Ab = 10k**   Score=5+1
 100%  101B 10f 8/3 Gd Eps  17K    (24 days)**   (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from B, BUT chk figures
 386%  102B 8f 6/4 Gd Don  65K    (56 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 0%  01D 17f Pl/93 GS Chl  10K    (112 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)
   .................................. (100%)
 Terfel, .......................................................................................Form 2-3-11  (15**)  Av = 16.7k** , Ab = 3k  Score=4+4
 82%  83B 8f 11/10 GF Kem  17K    (12 days)**    (** DIST  lengths)    ***DOWN in class from B,  No improv
 58%  92B 8f 3/3 Gd Sal  11K    (316 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 125%  98A 7f 2/2 Sft Eps  22K    (344 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (54%)
 Prince Hector, .......................................................................................Form 14-7-1  (18)  Av = 17.7k** , Ab = 7k  Score=2+4
 53%  92C 8f 1/1 GS Bat  10K    (336 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **    Same class C, BUT chk figures
 136%  81B 9f 7/2 Gd Goo  29K    (361 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 56%  69C 7f 14/8 GF Nmk  14K    (396 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (50%)
 Lady Bear, .......................................................................................Form 3-4-2  (9**)  Av = 14k** , Ab = 17k**   Score=7+1
 83%  80A 9f 2/¾L GS Nmk  18K    (15 days)** (g)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from A  IMPROVING ***
 67%  96C 10f 4/4 GF Pon  12K    (39 days)  (Down in dist lengths)
 64%  92C 10f 3/6 GF Asc  12K    (49 days)  (Down in dist placed ?)
   .................................. (43%)  

Very impressive again Nessie. Still can't work it out though, but I'll keep trying.

Oldtimer

Nessie
Dumarann lost what's happened,Not really surprising though given the form.Keep posting mate i'm intrigued.

Bio if its any consolation i dont think the horse ran his race today at all, keep posting your thoughts im sure there are many on here who are very impressed with the attitude of our new members .

[This message was edited by walter pigeon on May 17, 2003 at 04:50 PM.]

Nessie,
Nice to see you posting again.
Could you tell me where you get your race details from, IE the last 3 races of the runners etc.
Many Thanks
Ginger

Hi. This is important. The tables are my idea of VDW. I got the idea from the littl owl example in the booklet.

But VDW said it is is a balance of class and form. After the race you can see Dumaran had the class but little Beer had the form. When it all coems to gether it is very acurate. Hawk wing. I have been doing this for a long time now and I relly think tha this is the answer. but it has to balance and then they do not come along all the tiome. lot of examples today prove this again. My previus posts prove it. Sorru about the spelling.


Raciingpost is best for form I cut abnd paste it into my tables.

[This message was edited by Nessie on May 17, 2003 at 05:10 PM.]

I hope this helps you.

quote:

---

Guest Member
posted May 17, 2003 12:45 PM
Determined/Investor - In view of Determineds request, I have listed the class/form horses for the main races today below. However, I think I have given plenty of class/forms in the past for anyone to eventually get the picture. Contrary to what some on here think, class/form evaluation never changes and it doesn't matter if an example is from today or 20 years ago. For that reason I am going to stick to what I said last week. One more evaluation for the Derby next month, then that is it.

Just one point for Bio. In my view VDW would not see Dumaran as a certainty today especially given the presence of Lady Bear, who has shown better form recently than Dumaran and also get's some weight. Best of luck though even if you do appear to be placing all your eggs in one basket, something VDW would have frowned upon for certain. When he said place a proper bet on a selection, it was providing you had sufficient in your tank to cover yourself in the long run.

---

Newbury

2.25 Bangalore c/f, Persian Punch 2nd c/f
3.00 Hawkwing c/f, Domedriver 2nd c/f
3.35 Barolo c/f

Thirsk
3.15 Excellento c/f, Mubeen 2nd c/f - Mubeen speed/form, Excellento 2nd speed/form

Nottingham
3.20 Rag Top c/f, Impressive Flight 2nd c/f - Impressive Flight sp/f, Rag Top/Fancy Lady 2nd sp/f

Hamilton
4.05 Dumaran c/f, Lady Bear 2nd c/f 
Posts: 570 |  Registered: February 18, 2002  

Look at the above VDW view from Guest look at the my VDW tables. If this doesnt spell it out then I am a dutchmam

 NEWBURY, 17 May 2003, 3:00, Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes (Class A) (Group 1) (4yo+),Winner £116,000.00,1m GD-FM, 8 Runners 

 Hawk Wing, .......................................................................................Form 2-2-7  (11**)  Av = 666.3k** , Ab = 91.5k  Score=4+3
 100%  95x 10f 7/17 Fs Arl  1424K    (203 days)  (Down in dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 1424K,  CHK for improv
 15%  121A 8f 2/2 GF Asc  178K    (231 days)(g)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 36%  123x 10f 2/shd Gd Leo  397K    (252 days)  (Down in dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Domedriver, .......................................................................................Form 1-1-2  (4**)  Av = 152k** , Ab = 113k  Score=3+10
 3%  124x 8f 2/snk Gd Sai  37K    (16 days)**    (** DIST  PLACED **)    UP in class from 37K, BUT chk figures
 35%  125x 8f 1/¾L 8Y Arl  381K    (203 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
 3%  115x 8f 1/hd GS Lon  38K    (224 days)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (26%)

 NEWBURY, 17 May 2003, 3:35, skybetvegas.com Stakes Showcase Handicap (Class C) (3yo+,0-90),Winner £17,400.00,(1m4f5y)1m4f GOOD, 20 Runners Handicap

 Zibeline, .......................................................................................Form 5-10-7  (22)  Av = 33.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+
 100%  93B 18f 7/5 Gd Nmk  69K    (210 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from B,  CHK for improv
 14%  70C 13f 10/21 GF Nby  13K    (238 days)(c)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
 26%  93C 13f 5/1 GF Yor  18K    (251 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (100%)
 Counsel's Opinion, .......................................................................................Form 12-11-3  (23)  Av = 15.3k, Ab = 9k  Score=3+2
 18%  98B 10f 3/2 Gd Nmk  12K    (14 days)** (g)   (UP in dist, PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from B, BUT chk figures
 33%  93B 10f 11/4 GF Kem  23K    (28 days)   (UP in dist, lengths)
 15%  88B 12f 12/9 GS Nmk  11K    (212 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (47%)


THIRSK, 17 May 2003, 3:15, Boltby Classified Stakes (Class B) (3yo,0-95),Winner £13,065.00,1m GD-FM, 4 Runners 

 Tizzy May, .......................................................................................Form 7-5-18  (22)  Av = 91.7k** , Ab = 6.5k  Score=4+1
 100%  93A 8f 18/11 Gd Nmk  185K    (14 days)**    (** DIST  lengths)    ***DOWN in class from A,  CHK for improv
 9%  95A 7f 5/4 GF Nmk  18K    (31 days)(g)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 39%  94A 6f 7/4 Gd Yor  72K    (269 days)   (UP in dist, lengths)
   .................................. (100%)
 Spiritual Air, .......................................................................................Form 5-8-4  (17)  Av = 53k** , Ab = 3k  Score=4+1
 9%  87A 8f 4/6 Fm Thi  19K    (35 days)(c)   (** DIST  lengths)    ***DOWN in class from A, BUT chk figures
 52%  72B 6f 8/5 GF Asc  125K    (232 days)(g)   (UP in dist, lengths)
 7%  88A 6f 5/2 Gd Rip  15K    (264 days)   (UP in dist, lengths)
   .................................. (44%)
 Mubeen, .......................................................................................Form 1-4-2  (7**)  Av = 10.3k, Ab = 6.5k  Score=2+6
 4%  96C 9f 2/½L GF Rip  8K    (45 days)(g)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    UP in class from C, BUT chk figures
 7%  88A 8f 4/8 Gd Goo  14K    (246 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 4%  92C 8f 1/nk GF Sal  9K    (276 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (10%)
 Excellento, .......................................................................................Form 2-1-1  (4**)  Av = 8.7k, Ab = 9k  Score=3+8
 7%  98B 7f 1/1 GF Nmk  13K    (13 days)** (g)     (Chk Dist  + WIN **)    Same class B,  CHK for improv
 2%  85D 8f 1/1 GF Rip  5K    (30 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **
 3%  77D 8f 2/3 Fm Pon  8K    (233 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
   .................................. (8%)


NOTTINGHAM, 17 May 2003, 3:20, Tote Exacta Fillies' Stakes (Class A) (Registered As The Kilvington Stakes) (Listed Race) (3yo+),Winner £23,200.00,(6f15y)6f GD-SFT, 19 Runners 

 Look Here's Carol, .......................................................................................Form 2-3-11  (15**)  Av = 70.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+3
 100%  85A 8f 11/14 GF Nmk  185K    (13 days)**   (Down in dist Unpl)    Same class A  IMPROVING ***
 10%  92A 6f 3/1 GF Rip  18K    (30 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 4%  95C 5f 2/½L GF Lei  8K    (44 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Rag Top, .......................................................................................Form 1-3-10  (14**)  Av = 53.7k** , Ab = 17.8k  Score=4+3
 48%  76x 8f 10/14 Gd Cap  101K    (20 days)**   (Down in dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 101K,  CHK for improv
 18%  99A 7f 3/2 GF Nby  29K    (35 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
 18%  96x 7f 1/½L Gd Cur  31K    (224 days)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (73%)


HAMILTON, 17 May 2003, 4:05, Variety Club of Scotland Classified Stakes (Class C) (3yo+,0-90),Winner £9,906.00,(1m65y)1m½f GD-SFT, 12 Runners 

 Dumaran, .......................................................................................Form Pl-6-8  (24)  Av = 30.7k** , Ab = 10k**   Score=5+1
 100%  101B 10f 8/3 Gd Eps  17K    (24 days)**   (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from B, BUT chk figures
 386%  102B 8f 6/4 Gd Don  65K    (56 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 0%  01D 17f Pl/93 GS Chl  10K    (112 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)
   .................................. (100%)
 Terfel, .......................................................................................Form 2-3-11  (15**)  Av = 16.7k** , Ab = 3k  Score=4+4
 82%  83B 8f 11/10 GF Kem  17K    (12 days)**    (** DIST  lengths)    ***DOWN in class from B,  No improv
 58%  92B 8f 3/3 Gd Sal  11K    (316 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 125%  98A 7f 2/2 Sft Eps  22K    (344 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
   .................................. (54%)
 Prince Hector, .......................................................................................Form 14-7-1  (18)  Av = 17.7k** , Ab = 7k  Score=2+4
 53%  92C 8f 1/1 GS Bat  10K    (336 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **    Same class C, BUT chk figures
 136%  81B 9f 7/2 Gd Goo  29K    (361 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 56%  69C 7f 14/8 GF Nmk  14K    (396 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (50%)
 Lady Bear, .......................................................................................Form 3-4-2  (9**)  Av = 14k** , Ab = 17k**   Score=7+1
 83%  80A 9f 2/¾L GS Nmk  18K    (15 days)** (g)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from A  IMPROVING ***
 67%  96C 10f 4/4 GF Pon  12K    (39 days)  (Down in dist lengths)
 64%  92C 10f 3/6 GF Asc  12K    (49 days)  (Down in dist placed ?)
   .................................. (43%)

It is a balance between class and form. HawkWing the best horse in the best race. That is VDW and that is a fact.

Nessie, after reading your hugs dancer post i thought i was onto how you came about your percentages but to be honest im a bit in limbo at the moment as to how your going about things as subsequent posts have not fitted the same, taking the chester cup if you added the 3 percentage figures up for the last 3 races then divided by 3 the total percentage figures that are put up under each horse add up exactly but that is not the case in other races?.

Starter for ten! nessie, vdw, what do they have in common?.

[This message was edited by walter pigeon on May 17, 2003 at 06:11 PM.]

Barney,

A big well done with Prince Nureyev.

20/1 shot well done barney ive been watching the football most of the day knew it had won but not at that price what a shout ive been relegated btw.