hi mtoto, investor, fulham, all,how important is the speed figure last time out, when assessing in formness, also the class/form horse could anyone expand on this method, is it the 3 most consistent highest ability working down from the top on ability...or have you developed your own methods?...on assessing form
mtoto, hope you received emails, thanks, grundy

Looking at the Lingfield 3.15 Showcase Handicap. Is there anyone out there that disagrees Override is the class/form horse?

It is my opinion that this will go off shorter than 3.3 as advertised in the post and for me is a selection based on it’s 2nd last run at Kempton, with the return to 7f more suitable.

VDW called Little Owl a Racing Certainty
Top on everything if I rember rightly
He called Sunset Christo Nearly a Certainty
he was top on evrything except ability of which he was 2nd top

Considering that Ability ratings are only a guide
There seems to be a lot of reliance on them by people here to judge other aspects

Are you suggesting that the degree of certainty is directly linked to position in the various columns of the table? It's an interesting idea and I wonder if from the example tables given it's possible to define the numbers, positions and combinations of such that correspond to the various terms?

I couldnt be sure, it is just one example but that is the only reason I could find for saying that one is better than the other
In this instance anyway

Forgive me,but to my simple mind it would appear that to use split second as gospel, when they are calculated by a different person, to a totally different format, is blind adherence to the written word, and has little to do with VDW!

I find it very interesting. It points to the idea that detailed analysis of form is irrelevent to the degree of certainty and brings the whole business much more into line with 'system' thinking.

There are Phrases he has used that would suggest system

things like
When evrything lines up the horse is seldom beaten
And
Once you find it (the missing link)
You will have the same horses as myself

Lingfield 3:15,

Chaz, you are a braver man than me. Your first question, is Override the class/form horse? I really struggle to use the word class with this horse. Why is his last race ignored/forgiven? I can see using the speed merit ability rating he is the best of a bad bunch.

I don't think for one moment VDW would back this horse. This is a race only the bookie can benefit from, in fact it could be said about the whole meeting. It will not surprise me if it wins, something has got to. If a gun was put to my head I would back Etoile Solitaire, he is at least improving, and could have the scope to go on. It would have to be a very big gun though!

Best of luck if you do play

I have a question for all of you.
Lets imagine you use all your ratings and skills to come up with a horse forecasted @4-1 in the RP.
If you saw that horse drift to 7-1, would that put you off, or not affect you decision atall?
Cheers
Swish

While I would generally agree with you about Override, I would find it quite easy to forgive his last run.
Given his draw, the class of the race,and the way he was ridden, there is little wonder that he couldn't sustain his effort.

CHAZ,

In this race I agree that override is the c/f, I also get the second c/f as captain ginger.

Using another method Beneking is worth consideration and actually there is a tentative line through cala, 3rd last races both. At the available prices I think that is the better betting proposition of the two.

Yet another method shows tuscan sky as top rated and at one point was entered in the chevely park as a 2yo, although I think she needs more than 7f but still cannot be discounted. A bit of mess the race alltold.

Mtoto

Your point re sfs needs pondering, and I'll get back to you in due course.

On ability, VDW introduced the idea of an ability rating to his readers in his article titled by the Chronicle "A Method not Rules Needed", and then referred to regularly, eg in the "Spells in all out" article as well as the later "class/form" articles. But, as stressed regularly by Guest and others, the ability rating is part of a whole, not something to be used on its own.

One way of thinking about VDW's approach is that it had three stages.

First, to calculate the ability ratings for the field and produce a ranking - highest AR at the top, 2nd highest second, etc.

Second, to assess the field for in-formness and thus be in a position to strike out from the ranking any horse NOT regarded as a form horse in the context of the race.

Third, for the remaining sub-set of the original ranking, to examine the form of all concerned in depth, from what VDW described as the capability perspective, to establish whether any are sufficiently "solid" (and clear of the others) to be worth backing at the available price.

I am NOT saying that that is how VDW approached an evaluation: simply that it is a logical way of addressing the various parts of the whole that, taken together, VDW's articles and examples showed us.

VDW said that the class/form horse (ie the top horse in the sub-set referred to above) was the most likely winner, but sometimes (as with Swiss Maid) for reasons that become clear during the in depth examination of form that I have put as the third step, a horse lower down the ability (or class)/form ranking sub-set is backed.

Because it is easier to check, have a look at the 2002 Champion Chase, taking it as given that, from a VDW perspective, Edredon Bleu was top of the ability (class)/form ranking, and Flagship Uberalles second top. After looking at the recent form of the two, which (if either) would you have backed?


Grundy

In NH races and Flat races involving older horses, sfs (last race or otherwise) are not relevant to the assessment of in-formness. For 2yo races (which it seemed that VDW rarely touched) and early/mid season 3yo races, VDW used sfs as a cross-check on the usual ability rating (see his 10/10/81 article).

As regards assessing in-formness, VDW never spelt out exactly how he did it. This has to be deduced from his articles (especially the 26/1/85 one and those immediately following), and particularly by study of the examples he gives in those articles.

Because VDW did not spell out this aspect of his approach in detail, we cannot be absolutely certain what it was, and there are from time to time differences between those who have studied the examples and made their own deductions. However, there is more than enough matching between the conclusions reached on specific horses by, for example, Guest, Chaz and me, to suggest that we have all made more or less the same deductions from our studies.

From really not having a clue about this central aspect of VDW's approach (ie making the common assumption that form and consistency were the same), it took me the better part of a year of studying VDW's examples in the light of the many hints Guest has given on this thread before I found that, nine or more times out of ten, I was getting the same c/fs, 2nd c/fs etc as him. The fact that there are still the odd horses on which we reach different conclusions - Dumaran recently, for example - I think reflects differences at the margin rather than fundamental differences, and is unsurprising when one considers that VDW wrote "to isolate the "class/form" horse can often prove a tricky problem" (26/1/85 article).

You will have noticed that some on this thread do not think that isolating the class/form horses in VDW's sense is central to his approach, and they are of course entitled to this opinion. For those taking a different view, there is, to the best of my knowledge, no alternative to studying the examples, as no one who has done so has, so far, spelt out in detail his or her conclusions.

Chaz
I don't know what your problem is now,But my response to epi was just purely to put him straight,It would seem that both you and epiglotis feel i was taking the piss out of nessies ratings,All i said was "a bad day at black rock" it's obviously the way i write,I really mean no harm.As for attitude youv'e come bursting on to the thread from nowhere and laid straight into me,So maybe it would be an idea to look at your own attitude.Mine is based on defence due to being slated basically for telling the truth.

Swish
I would say its even better value myself and put some more on.
cheers
Pro

Bad day at balck rock. Like I said I can understand why people don't like you.
What kind of a remark was that? You asked me to put up my tables for the horses
you selected.

I did not select them did I. I keep saying tha t
it is a balance betwen clas and form. You horses yesterday were form
not class as well as my tables showd you. Idont want to fall out with you
but you keep saying how good you are after the race and leading me by
the nose saying why dont you look at this and that but not talking straight
then when yo u ask for me to put up my tables for you horses you then say
they dont work. ****ing pissed me off mate.


This is your thing that you kep quiet. I went through your selections and found the thing that linked them all.
I then put that on the tables with a ln. ln stands for lenghs.
that is the horses with the best form figs but also least
numbetr of lengths and you can see if the improve. like 2nd by 3 length
then 3 by 1 length then winner. so 121 might not be as good a s 211
now you also check number of lenghs lost or won by. ok no more secret.

The only horse I selected yesterday was in a poor race Bigbradford and it won.

Sorry for geting cross but black rock was piss poor thing to say.

Lingfield 3.15

The only horses i would be looking at in this race today class form or not would be EASTERN DAGGER and ETOILE SOLITAIRE,Both have factors against so a no bet race for me.

n.a 2.30 JABOUNE/MISS COOL

N.A 3.00 MANORAM/SCARFACE

.

Personally I think your contributions to this thread are outstanding by their relevence and motivation. I'm sure plenty of people are interested in your views. Critical voices are always louder than praise so one should be wary about how seriously or otherwise to treat them.