Weight & SF

The perennial debate that never seems to get resolved.

To adjust for weight or not probably causes more controversy amongst SF compilers than anything else but never seems to get resolved.

In my opinion the reason it never gets resolved is because there is no definitive answer. In some races weight does have an effect on SF and in others it doesn't. The degree to which weight effects time is usually dependant on both the pace and track layout.

In a race ran at a crawl with a decisive burst of speed to win from the class horse, then I think the effect of weight on time is negligible. However in a race ran at a strong pace from the start I believe weight will make a difference to the SF recorded.

Equally with track conformation. On courses with tight bends then I think horses have an optimum speed that they can race at whilst maintaining balance. In these races weight carried won't be as significant to the final time. It can be different on a galloping track with long sweeping bends, here horses can stretch out more and I believe weight will have a larger effect on the final time.

Nessie

As Im fairly new to this forum & havent read all your posts can I ask you ,when you have worked out your ratings-do you apply the "what a horse does in the final two furlongs" theory on top of the ratings or do you base your selections purely on them.Keep up the posts,I do find them very interesting and appreciate the hard work that you obviously put into this forum.It is refreshing to see someone put plenty in as you again did that to "uncover" Investors secret.Regardless who it is everyone backs losers,the formula is though to back less than everyone else.Cheers

Bio
it is no secret my friend,You only have to look at the form it's knowing when to go in that may cause problems (temperement).

Bad day for you're method today then investor? But then I suppose you're used to bad day's.

Jimmy
on the contrary,A no play day,I did say at the beginning i wouldn't claim any winners and just because i put them on the thread doesn't mean i back them all does it,If you were the least bit interested in the methods or knew the slightest thing about them you would understand what i mean.... goodnight jimmy.And remember tomorrow's another day.

When are you going to tell nessie that he hasnt found your secret

It is noticeable from a number of your recent posts, that you are prepared to step outside the perameters of the mainstream thinking of this thread.
It is also noticeable, (To me, anyway), that some of your thinking on VDW is in advance of many that you doff your cap to, and too often for it to be coincidence.
Why are you hiding your light?

JOHND,

Nothing to hide my friend. I just look at each race as it comes along but one thing I may do differently is try to put myself in the trainers mind.

On the subject of trainers, many moons ago I did very well following M.Stoute`s h`cappers but in the recent past the h`capper has got a grip of him in the same way he did with L.Cumani.

Has the h`capper let go of him this season or does Stouty just have a good crop of lightly raced older horses.

In my opinion the stables older h`cappers will be worth staying with all season.

How many of these winning h`cappers would have been VDW bets ? None I suspect.

How will Namroud look from a VDW angle in Chester`s 7.00 this evening ?


FULHAM,

I found myself rushing into the centre of Scarborough on Monday evening just in time to place an interest in Freya`s Dream.

I wanted 5/2 which was never on offer in the bookies hence no bet for me.

Can I ask, did you play at the odds on offer ?. She was clearly disappointing in the race. Fillies are funny at the best of times.

*** a couple of locals kept telling me Tim Easterby`s horses are coughing. Didn`t stop Fayr Jag or Dazzling Bay ***

Determined

We took identical views about Freya's Dream. In discussing her with two members of the board earlier in the day I said I would want at least the 5/2 forecast in the Post, but didn't get it on Betfair or during the shows.

Determined
R.e Namroud i don't think it's worth looking outside the first 3 in the r/p forecast.

Investor

I've just finished looking at the 7.00 Chester, and have reached the same conclusion as you. Sadly, none of the three is for me sufficiently clear for a bet, and with the current price of Namound on Betfair (about 7/4) neither does there seem scope for a book.

Fulham
no bet for me either my friend.

Hello all
3.15 new what a load of rubbish this race is

3.35 notts Dubai destination should win this,Too short for me though

3.55 bath 4 horses for consideration Absolute utopia,Other Routes,Sky quest and tender Falcon

7.10 bev looks a good 2yr old the first 2 in the market look to have the race between them.

7.20 kemp thery'll be tears at bedtime if Chic doesn't win this,Not my tears though

There are loads of races to look at these are just the races that vdw specifies in golden years.Have fun

Dr Fulham,

May I draw your attention to the "Off Topic Thread" European Referendum.

111
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III

On this we most certainly agree.

Bio I cant add the 2f comments to my tables but I hover the mouse over the form anf they pop up and noted.

Taking about spedratings and how to calculate them I got an old Rp which sets out how he makes the topspeed fgures up. I can use my textbridge ocr if you want to see it

[This message was edited by Nessie on June 04, 2003 at 12:19 PM.]

Dr Fulham,

My enemies enemy is my friend. I realise that may be stretching a point, but you get my drift.

111
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I'm sure there will be interest both here and on the "calculating" thread in the General Discussion Forum.

Nessie,
I have looked at a fair number of VDW examples and I can't make the lengths beaten by thing work, so it may not be the right track to follow. I have found a strong correlation between the starting price (position in the market) and the finishing position. On the few occasions that it doesn't add up, using VDW's criteria, it can be excused. Using the market as a guide to in-formness makes sense and has been used by others. Thanks for your refreshing aproach to solving the mysteries of VDW , its the class/form balance that still confuses me.
regards Bumper

Hi Like everything vdw lengths doesnt work on its own. But try it on non hanicaps. Take the spoted horse that is 1st or 2nd favorite that has been placed. compare it withother placed horses lengths lost/won by. Thanks to investor for that bit.

Balnce class and form is very hard. Thagts why there is so few bets. The balance seems to be a matter of opinin as so few are well clear.

This one just popped in and shows the point made re lenghts and days but in a handiocap.
Plced 2nd 10 days ago at 10f total 7 lngths. all these factors have there place but you need patence wchich is the hard bit.

  BATH, 04 Jun 2003, 3:55, Renault Master Van Handicap (Class E) (3yo+,0-70),Winner £4,280.25,(1m2f46y)1m2f FIRM, 14 Runners Handicap

 Sky Quest,,.......................................................Form 2-7-2  (11**)  sp lto 7/1 ln 7 Av = 4k Ab = 0k  Score=5+1
 100%  76D 10f 2/1 15rs**  GF San  5K    (9 days)   (** DIST  placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 5K to 4.3k,  CHK for improv
 53%  68E 11f 7/5 15rs**  GF Yar  3K    (44 days)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
 76%  73E 12f 2/1 18rs  GF Rip  4K    (63 days)  (Down in dist placed ?)
   .................................. (100%)
 Silent Memory,,.......................................................Form 1-5-7  (13**)  sp lto 16/1 ln 27 Av = 5.3k** , Ab = 3k  Score=5+2
 89%  34C 12f 7/25 7rs  GF Ham  10K    (37 days)  (Down in dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 10K to 4.3k  IMPROVING ***
 45%  57F 12f 5/2 17rs  GF Ncs  3K    (44 days)  (Down in dist lengths)
 44%  56F 11f 1/hd 11rs  Fm Bri  3K    (55 days)(g)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (77%)
 Tarski,,.......................................................Form 8-2-Pl  (20)  sp lto 13/2 ln 62 Av = 3.3k, Ab = 2k  Score=1+1
 0%  01E 21f Pl/33 11rs  Fm Lud  3K    (223 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)    UP in class from 3K to 4.3k,  No improv
 73%  93E 19f 2/2 7rs  Fm Exe  3K    (246 days)(g)  (Down in dist PLACED **)
 87%  83D 16f 8/27 12rs  Gd Wor  4K    (262 days)  (Down in dist lengths)
   .................................. (69%) 

[This message was edited by Nessie on June 04, 2003 at 04:11 PM.]