Investor,

I'm happy to say I thought Fayr Jag was a VDW selection, on ALL counts, Rouyshayd and consistency.

Nessie,

I'm afraid you have lost me. Are the ratings your final part of the equation? They come into play to confirm the selection, not to decide on a selection? Could you show your ratings for the Fayr Jag race?

Couple of points. I still can't see how taking an average of the races a horse has run in can give you a handle on it's ability. Unless the horse has performed well in the class. Percy Parkeeper may have run in a £19,000 race, but he never looked likely to win it. So why does that fact he ran in it count for anything?

At the moment I think the main topic of discussion on the thread is whether a horse is in form. I think Percy Parkeeper would have to be described as in form, but was that form good enough to win today's race. I don't think at his best he has proven he was good enough to win today.

I am in no way criticising your ratings, although I can't agree Postmark are the best figures available. I still think unadjusted s/f would give a better picture. I just can't quite understand your thinking about the thread.

Be Lucky

Thanks. I understand that about princple meetings etc.

but why wasnt the prince in form. How did you decide on which horses to evaluate. Can you simply tell me was the factors instead of telling me to look for them.

Otherwise we are no furhter ahead. I am not afraid on showing how I get the sels.
Does tha tmake sennse? I could put up 3 horses in a race from the principle meeting and say they are to be studied. if they win I say they you go. if they lose i say they were not the ones.

so can you tell me without sending me round the hoeses because i have read the books and know them well, but abbey does not fit.

mtoto there is no final part bigning or end part of the equation it is a balance.

If you score 1 2 3 you ave 2 yes? if you score 56 7 you ave 6 so the ave prize over the last 3 / ave last 3 placings gives a good idea of consitency yes? the point is not if pm is a better rating is a rating that i find good. you mihgt find speed figs good. If your rating picks the winners when used wit hcacpw then it works yes. Not arguing with you alt all.

[This message was edited by Nessie on June 01, 2003 at 07:28 PM.]

Mtoto
FayreJag is intresting because it had the best consistency 12.1k and 6.5k abilty and had the best pm*prize lto
But The table s are not for Roushard.

PONTEFRACT, 01 Jun 2003, 4:20, William Hill Rated Stakes (Class C) (Handicap) (3yo+,0-95),Winner £12,278.60,6f GD-FM, 17 Runners Handicap

 Inter Vision,,.......................................................Form 9-8-9  (26)  sp lto 25/1  Av = 20k** , Ab = 5.3k  Score=3+0
 87%  83C 7f 9/6 15rs  Gd Chs  16K    (26 days)     (Chk Dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 16K to 12.3k,  No improv
 98%  83A 5f 8/6 10rs  Gd Yor  18K    (284 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 154%  90A 5f 9/5 13rs  Gd Goo  26K    (304 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (100%)
 Now Look Here,,.......................................................Form 14-9-2  (21)  sp lto 7/1  Av = 20.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=5+2
 85%  93B 5f 2/½L 14rs  Hy Hay  14K    (8 days)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from 14K to 12.3k,  No improv
 85%  72B 5f 9/5 17rs**  GF Yor  18K    (18 days)(g)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 164%  86C 6f 14/6 30rs  Gd Nmk  29K    (29 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (98%)
 John O'Groats,,.......................................................Form 4-26-12  (24)  sp lto 20/1  Av = 16k** , Ab = 9.5k  Score=3+2
 49%  75C 6f 12/8 18rs**  GS Thi  10K    (15 days)   (** DIST  lengths)    UP in class from 10K to 12.3k, BUT chk figures
 130%  68C 6f 26/12 30rs  Gd Nmk  29K    (29 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 51%  87C 5f 4/6 11rs  Fm Bev  9K    (46 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (67%)
 Loyal Tycoon,,.......................................................Form 16-6-2  (18)  sp lto 25/1  Av = 13.3k** , Ab = 7k  Score=5+3
 60%  92C 6f 2/hd 18rs**  GF Goo  10K    (11 days)(g)   (** DIST  PLACED **)    UP in class from 10K to 12.3k,  No improv
 53%  81C 6f 6/5 18rs**  GS Thi  10K    (15 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 79%  60B 7f 16/15 28rs  Gd Asc  20K    (32 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (56%)
 Plateau,,.......................................................Form 5-1-16  (16)  sp lto 8/1  Av = 11k, Ab = 5k  Score=4+3
 99%  79C 5f 16/6 18rs**  Gd Yor  19K    (284 days)     (Chk Dist Unpl)    ***DOWN in class from 19K to 12.3k  IMPROVING ***
 45%  99C 5f 1/shd 4rs  GF Yar  7K    (313 days)(g)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
 42%  92C 6f 5/7 7rs  Gd Hay  7K    (330 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)
   .................................. (54%)
 Ellens Academy,,.......................................................Form 5-7-8  (20)  sp lto 40/1  Av = 12.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=4+2
 67%  73B 5f 8/10 14rs  Hy Hay  14K    (8 days)     (Chk Dist lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 14K to 12.3k, BUT chk figures
 78%  79B 6f 7/9 8rs  GF Yor  15K    (17 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 34%  66C 6f 5/9 8rs  Sft Hay  8K    (29 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (52%)
 Point Of Dispute,,.......................................................Form 8-13-5  (23)  sp lto 12/1  Av = 10.7k, Ab = 12k  Score=3+0
 6%  95B 7f 5/2 7rs  Gd Lin  xK    (22 days)     (Chk Dist lengths)    UP in class from xK to 12.3k, BUT chk figures
 95%  72B 7f 13/13 28rs  Gd Asc  20K    (32 days)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 70%  89B 7f 8/5 16rs**  GF Nmk  12K    (46 days)(g)      (Chk Dist lengths)
   .................................. (50%)
 Seel Of Approval,,.......................................................Form 3-7-1  (11**)  sp lto 7/2F  Av = 9.7k, Ab = 6.7k  Score=2+7
 52%  88C 6f 1/nk 20rs  GF Kem  9K    (41 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **    UP in class from 9K to 12.3k,  No improv
 49%  83C 6f 7/2 19rs  GF Asc  9K    (64 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 59%  82C 6f 3/1 10rs  GS Sal  11K    (242 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
   .................................. (46%)
 Fayr Jag,,.......................................................Form Pl-2-3  (15**)  sp lto 9/2  Av = 13k** , Ab = 6.5k  Score=6+2
 100%  101B 6f 3/1 8rs  GF Yor  15K    (17 days)(g)   (** DIST  placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 15K to 12.3k  IMPROVING ***
 58%  99C 5f 2/3 11rs  Fm Bev  9K    (46 days)      (Chk Dist placed ?)
 0%  01B 6f Pl/23 11rs  GF Nmk  15K    (288 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (46%)
 Toldya,,.......................................................Form 8-2-16  (20)  sp lto 11/2  Av = 11.3k, Ab = 15k**   Score=5+2
 12%  32D 6f 16/19 17rs**  Gd Nby  6K    (4 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)    UP in class from 6K to 12.3k,  No improv
 59%  90C 6f 2/2 14rs  Sft Rip  10K    (14 days)   (** DIST  placed ?)
 86%  73B 5f 8/4 17rs**  GF Yor  18K    (18 days)(g)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
   .................................. (46%)
 Abbajabba,,.......................................................Form 13-4-14  (24)  sp lto 14/1  Av = 14.3k**  Ab = 0k  Score=6+3
 69%  62B 6f 14/16 16rs**  GF Nmk  17K    (28 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 17K to 12.3k  IMPROVING ***
 48%  91C 6f 4/4 8rs  Fm Thi  8K    (50 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
 27%  23A 6f 13/31 19rs  Hy Don  18K    (204 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (42%)
 Simianna,,.......................................................Form 8-3-3  (14**)  sp lto 10/1  Av = 9k Ab = 0k  Score=2+2
 62%  95C 6f 3/2 14rs  Sft Rip  10K    (14 days)   (** DIST  placed ?)    UP in class from 10K to 12.3k,  CHK for improv
 38%  72C 6f 3/6 8rs  Sft Hay  8K    (29 days)   (** DIST  placed ?)
 45%  76C 5f 8/9 11rs  Fm Bev  9K    (46 days)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
   .................................. (42%)
 Pieter Brueghel,,.......................................................Form 5-3-16  (18)  sp lto 33/1  Av = 10k, Ab = 6.5k  Score=2+1
 46%  59B 7f 16/19 16rs**  GF Nmk  12K    (46 days)(g)     (Chk Dist lengths)    Same class 12K,  No improv
 21%  47C 7f 3/9 6rs  Fm Red  7K    (239 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
 71%  99B 8f 5/3 6rs  GF Goo  11K    (248 days)(g)  (Down in dist lengths)
   .................................. (40%)
 Sundried Tomato,,.......................................................Form 2-8-12  (20)  sp lto 6/1  Av = 8.3k, Ab = 9.5k  Score=4+4
 0%  01D 6f 12/10 19rs  GS Ayr  5K    (2 days)   (** DIST  lengths)    UP in class from 5K to 12.3k,  No improv
 57%  87C 6f 8/2 18rs**  GF Goo  10K    (11 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 61%  93C 6f 2/1 18rs**  GS Thi  10K    (15 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
   .................................. (34%)
 Grey Cossack,,.......................................................Form 13-1-1  (12**)  sp lto 16/1  Av = 6.3k, Ab = 7k  Score=4+7
 39%  86D 6f 1/shd 19rs  Gd Don  7K    (8 days)    ** DIST + WIN **    UP in class from 7K to 12.3k, BUT chk figures
 40%  88D 5f 1/nk 16rs**  GF Bev  7K    (22 days)(g)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
 21%  64D 6f 13/6 20rs  Gd Don  5K    (27 days)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (29%)
 Greenwood,,.......................................................Form 1-15-10  (21)  sp lto 14/1  Av = 6.3k, Ab = 4k  Score=3+5
 29%  74D 5f 10/6 14rs  Gd Lin  6K    (23 days)     (Chk Dist lengths)    UP in class from 6K to 12.3k, BUT chk figures
 31%  53C 6f 15/12 20rs  GF Kem  9K    (41 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
 24%  93E 6f 1/½L 18rs**  GF Wdr  4K    (48 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (24%)
 Prince Dayjur,,.......................................................Form 10-12-13  (30)  sp lto 50/1  Av = 9.7k, Ab = 9k  Score=3+2
 53%  81C 6f 13/9 18rs**  GS Thi  10K    (15 days)   (** DIST  lengths)    UP in class from 10K to 12.3k,  CHK for improv
 0%  01C 5f 12/62 12rs  GF Bev  12K    (22 days)(g)      (Chk Dist lengths)
 31%  68C 6f 10/12 10rs  GF Yar  7K    (256 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)
   .................................. (24%)

Can you please now tell me why fareJag was cacpw as well as Roushard?

Nessie,

Thanks for putting up the Fayr Jag figures, I will study them later. The first thing that does strike me is he had the best figure of all the runners in his last race.

Roushayd - Fayr Jag improved in his last race (s/f) dropping in class.

Consistency method - Placed in last three races (excusing race when he unseated rider at start) Top on ability, (my way, don't know about the usual way) making him the BEST HORSE. Non of the other consistent horses came anywhere near him for ability. Just for good measure he was clear top rated on my ratings. 17 runners, and I couldn't find a serious danger. Loyal Tycoon was the nearest danger based on the Roushayd method, but he was well held on all figures.

Be Lucky

Nessie
Your probably going to fall out with me now but so be it,You say that Lislaughtin abbey didn't fit,The reason for that my friend is because we are interpreting form in different ways.I have said in the past that these horses have something running through there form which was also evident in Little Owl and co all those years ago.He did say that only 2,3 or 4 horses could win and he was right if you think i'm just going to give it all on a plate after 12 months of hard slog,then i apologise but that would be a foolish thing for me to do.

If you read my post where i first put up horses for evaluation,i did actually say that i wouldn't claim any winners,And i feel iv'e stood by that all iv'e done is put certain horses in certain races that i feel have the credentials through my interpretation of vdw and i'm quite happy with the outcome,I do not wish to be ungrateful or anything like that but your tables mean nothing to me personally,I will still evaluate races the same way as i have done in the past and would never be put off by your ratings.Good luck with them though.

Mtoto
Good for you,I hope you lumped on.

Investor. We wont fall out.

But I would say tha tis wha tis wrong here. What is the point of the thread. You say you have the answer that works for you but wont tell I have an answer that works for me and I wiltell you anything you want.

Thanks anyway.

That is exactly the problem with this thread. Nobody has to explain anything that they dont want to but it really is nonsense to post at all if it's going to be one of these silly posts of so called hints.

Epi
It is not bloody hints,If you go onto r/p website you can look at the form for the horses that have been put up,Did anybody tell me,No they didn't i had to work it out for myself,You may think i'm being selfish but i'm sorry if you look hard enough you will find what you want.I'm not being cryptic or anything like that but you have got to put some effort in to the project epi,I can guarantee you will like what you find.

If you're convinced that I'll find it if I look why not just say what it is? And for sure I've put a shit pile of work into this thread.

Investor. Ok I'm used to working things out

Please list 10 horses tha tcan be found on the rp website that show me wha tyou mean.

Thank you

Epi
I think you better re-phrase that youv'e put shit into this thread.

Tell us what it is if you find it

Investor
bet you dont know how to extract the winner from the probables
I do
But I am not telling

Nah nah neh nah nah

Nessie
Are we talking about horses from the present or the past.And what are you going to compare them to,The permutations are endless don't forget,and even if i do put 10 horses up the odds are it will still remain obscure.And like you say he was a dutchman.

Boozer
your right,On quite a few occasions i don't so what do you think i do.

Forecasts?

Waste Stakes

Boozer/Epi
I think your both taking the phiss,I never waste stakes and i don't do forecasts,I dutch a lot but when you can make 3 pts profit on the investment,It isn't a waste.

Nessie

If you want to find out how VDW narrowed the field, why not study authoritative examples, ie VDW's, rather than Investor's or anyone else's on this thread?

The 21 races where VDW named class/form horses (in his article of 26/1/85 and the two subsequent ones as re-printed in "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune") provide a good point of departure, simply because VDW explicitly named the class/form horses, and some other form horses, together with some who were not form horses.

If you do study the 21, you'll find that there was an error made in respect of one - Bonny Gold - because the Sporting Life printed his record incorrectly. His ability rating was exactly half that which one would calculate from the Life, and he was not the class/form horse, but he was a form horse.

Investor. Now that is a daft reply. Past or present? Future would be nice.Just joking.

ok. Please can i have a list
of say 10 horses whose form can be found on
the rp website tha t show the thing in common
that you said they all had in common with little owl and co.

. You said it to me and you have siad it to epi
just now.

Now is that plain enough or will you say you cant again. Do notg ive any clues just the names of the horses tha t all havethat form that is common to all of them and have the same line of form tha tvdw spelled out.

You wont be giving anything away judst the names
and they can be seen on the rp website.

Thank you.

[This message was edited by Nessie on June 01, 2003 at 11:24 PM.]