You living up to your name again???

Nessie
It wasn't meant to be a daft answer,I think that Fulham is right why don't you check out your ratings with the old examples and see how they fair.If you want to understand the patterns etc,Take the horses iv'e mentioned and look for certain points they have in common with past examples.

Hello all
Horses for evaluation today

leic 2.30 PLAY THAT TUNE/SCOTLAND THE BRAVE

thi 7.10 HAMBLEDON/HONOR ROUGE

win 7.55 TORASAY SPRINGS/BUDELLI


NESSIE
Put your ratings up for these races,It would be an interesting exercise.

ok. I have studied the examples given yesterday and I can see wha tabbey and fayr Jag have in common. obvious.

You still wont give the horses so I will check the ones you posted on here. I have checked all your posts now for horses.

I can see your not a bad chap but I can also see why you get picked on.you tend to say htat you did well but after the race. that will upset people wont it. as the general said be magmanimous in victory.

Thanks for the help.

Investor and Mtoto

hope you and yours are well and happy.

I'm sorry but I don't think Fayr Jag was a Roushayd for the same reason Guest pointed out with Colisay.

From a quick look at the form I don't think Fayr Jag was the C/F horse but even if it was there was another factor which made sure FJ was not a Roushayd.

All the best
hedgehog

Nessie
your right,I have been guilty of saying i backed such and such after the event,But if you or anybody else cares to check those particular horses form it is there to be seen,That is of course if individuals understand vdw's interpretation of form.

Hedgehog
What do you feel that other factor was,are you thinking along the lines of weight.

Hi Hedgehog,

Funny you should send that posting. I had just been looking at Nessies figures, and it struck me that other would/may not have even made Fayr Jag the c/form horse. Who did you make the c/form horse?

As Guest doesn't post anymore we can only guess if he would have thought it was carrying to much weight. I read Guest's thoughts on Colisay with great interest, he made much of the weight issue. At no time did he mention the bad draw, or the ridiculous price. They were the ONLY reasons the horse was not considered (by me). I think VDW had the weight factor wrong, that in no way decries his other thinking. Many people agree about weight, even though statistics prove otherwise. Fair enough, but it is always used as the scapegoat. The big weight didn't stop Colisay over coming the bad draw, and getting within a length of winning. Who can say with a better draw the weight would have been of no consequence?

I have asked before if VDW thought weight was so important why did he suggest using s/f that were not adjusted for weight? Why was he happy to back horses out of the handicap?

Be Lucky

It being a Holiday in Ireland today there's a decent meeting at Naas. Principal race is the E32,500 Naas Sprint Stakes at 4.00, a Listed Race.

Consistency ratings for top 5(+jt)

Danaskaya 10*
Osterhase 10*
Dragon Flyer 10*
Miss Anabaa 13
Minashki 23
Tough Chic 14

Top 4 on Ability

Osterhase 139
Minashki 130
Danaskaya 79
Cool Cousin 79

Cool Cousin's form has been at a lower level and wins have been over 6/7f, so no obvious suggestion of better to come here.
Minashki was held when 4 places behind Osterhase last time. Has some decent form in the past but currently out of form.
Danaskaya has placed form in Group 1's but over longer ditances. Only win as a 2yo was over 6f. Seasonal debut as well here.
OSTERHASE is proven in the class and over the distance and heads the Ability ratings. Carried 9-13 to victory in a competitive 5f handicap at the Curragh in October. 2nd to Repertory last time and the latter gave his running, as he usually does, behind Airwave in the Temple Stakes.

Osterhase seems worthy of interest to me. Has anybody any opinions on this race?

Rob

Mtoto

On the question of why VDW used sfs adjusted to a standard weight and not subsequently re-adjusted for the weight the horse concerned was to carry, we don't know the answer for sure, but I think it probably relates to purpose.

VDW used his standard ability rating (winning prize money divided by number of wins) as an indicator of a horse's ability, or class. Irrespective of the race under current consideration, or the weight to be carried in that race, the AR is objective - the product of a simple arithmetic calculation.

With 2yo and early/mid season 3yos, often the horses have little form and few if any wins to their credit, and may have nil ARs, or what might prove artificially high ones, based on just one win. As a cross-check, VDW wanted another objective indicator and chose adjusted sfs. These have the same character as ARs, in that they are easily found, objective and apply irrespective of the race concerned or the weight to be carried in that race. He had other means of assessing whether, with a given weight, a horse could or could not be regarded as having a realistic chance.

As to why VDW sometimes backed horses from out of the handicap, that I think can be answered more confidently. They were horses that met his three basic criteria: class, form and capability, which cover weight, and on weight he had his own criteria which indicated when a horse might realistically be expected successfully to carry "over-weight".

Rob,

Osterhase is the class/form horse but he has to give a stone away here to Danaskaya. The latter has the better form, but that is at 6f, which on the formbook is his distance. The question is, does he have the class to turn over Osterhase at 5f, an untried distance, on his seasonal debut. In my mind it is definitely a possibility given his form. I would therefore be looking to back them both, or a save on whichever you see as a danger. Unfortunately the prices don’t allow, for me at least.

I would entirely agree that Fayr Jag was a Roushayd type bet. VDW made no mention at all of weight in the two articles on Roushayd, but he emphasised the factors that were there to see yesterday.
Hedgehog may be referring to the horse not dropping in class, (If so, why not say so?),but it is clear to all but the most pedantic that there was a clear drop in class yesterday.

Johnd
Of course Fayr Jag was dropping in class i don't think that's what hedgehog is getting at,As for the weight issue has anybody ever thought that part of the roushayd method involves weight.

Mtoto, John,

I agree with Hedgehog with regards to Fayre Jag in that it wasn’t a Roushayd type due to the fact that it wasn’t the class/form horse. That honour went to the favourite Seel Of Approval. However, Seel Of Approval couldn’t have been backed on it’s own due to the 2nd and 3rd class/form horses having better recent form. They were Fayre Jag (2nd class/form) and Loyal Tycoon (3rd class/form). Another spanner in the works for me was Simmianna who was coming out of the top 3 class last time out (1st 6 in betting) and ran very well, albeit on soft ground. Had it not been for the latter I would have backed 3 in a book.

Granted, Fayre Jag was being dropped out of the highest class last time, had improved it’s speed figure, however wasn’t the class form horse, whereas Roushayd was.

Well done though to all who backed it.

Chaz

I use Split Second sfs (as in the Form Book) rather than Topspeed's, and on those, and using the figures as VDW did, Fayr Jag returned a lower figure for his last run prior to yesterday, compared with the run before that: 107 compared to the previous 115.

ok I have done my checking

For those who want to know look at the new fig that has
ln
next to it. BB has ln 3*. if it is also * then it is improving. Obvious and thank you.


Having checked some races today this one fits but class is low. Check it for your self. I am now checking whole of may.

 CARLISLE, 02 Jun 2003, 2:45, Wastwater Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Class E) (2yo),Winner £3,666.00,5f FIRM, 7 Runners 

 Big Bradford,,.......................................................Form 2-2  (4**)  sp lto 5/1 ln 3* Av = 3.5k Ab = 0k  Score=4+2
 100%  72E 6f 2/shd 14rs  GS Not  4K    (16 days)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from 4K to 3.7k  IMPROVING ***
 67%  65D 5f 2/3 13rs  GF Not  3K    (42 days)   (** DIST  placed ?)
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (100%)
 Iskander,,.......................................................Form 5  (5**)  sp lto 25/1 ln 3 Av = 3k Ab = 0k  Score=3+1
 65%  63E 5f 5/3 7rs**  Hy Hay  3K    (10 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)    Same class 3K,  CHK for improv
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
 0%  0 0f 0/0  
   .................................. (78%)
 Divine Spirit,,.......................................................Form 4-5-4  (13**)  sp lto 66/1 ln 14* Av = 3k Ab = 0k  Score=3+2
 71%  69E 5f 4/1 9rs  GF Red  3K    (7 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)    Same class 3K,  CHK for improv
 53%  51E 6f 5/8 12rs  GF Ncs  3K    (19 days)      (Chk Dist Unpl)
 62%  60D 5f 4/5 7rs**  GF Ncs  3K    (41 days)   (** DIST  Unpl)
   .................................. (74%) 

Fulham,

That’s interesting. I also use Split Second and record both raw and adjusted figures. However I still have different figures to yourself. I know that Mtoto uses the raw figures and it was this that I was going on in my above post. I know also that a lot will use Topspeed, which also showed an improved figure, I think!

At Beverley he was 2nd to Pick Up sticks and recorded a figure of 107 (in it’s purest form) carrying 9-8, adjusted to 10 stones would make it 101.

At York he was 3rd to Border Subject and recorded a figure of 112 (in it’s purest form) carrying 8-9, adjusted to 10 stones would be 93.

I’ve just noticed that you obviously adjust to 9 stone - I’ll still post the above anyway because it answers your post.

It still doesn’t alter the fact that Fayr Jag was only 2nd on class/form and therefore wasn’t on the same lines as Roushayd. The use of speed figures to note improvement is a method that VDW used to filter those horses that may not have appeared consistent at face value; not in the first 3 for consistency etc.

By the way, how did you see the race?

Chaz
I'm a little confused,You seem to be on the level with mtoto yet you don't see Fayr jag in the same light,I'm glad i posed that question to Mtoto there have been some interesting responses.

Chaz
I don't think Simmiana was a problem judging by where the other 3 had shown there form.

Chaz

Yes, I adjust to 9st, but of course as regards relativity it doesn't matter what one adjusts to, provided one is consistent.

For the avoidance of all doubt, we both agree that Fayr Jag's latest run prior to Sunday, ie at York on 15 May, produced a downturn in the adjusted sfs that VDW used, at least using Split Second data.

You ask how I saw the race. The answer is that, having come back from a few days' holiday, I scarcely had time to look at the racing this weekend, and only looked at the Fayr Jag race because of the interest on the thread.

Having done so, it is clear that, as you say, while Fayr Jag was a form horse, he wasn't the class/form horse. He was most certainly behind Seel of Approval in that regard and, arguably, Now Look Here (though he was, of course, unbackable under Sunday's conditions).