Fulham
I dont even want to debate this with you-I envisage you as a Victor Meldrew lookalike with the same kind of nature.I have had debate with you before and dont want to do it again as you would argue black was white, alone in your own house.I have put up my method that works_WHATS YOURS

Guest.thanks.

Actually thanks to everybody who has helped me.

Believe it or not I have looked at all the examples and all the form books. I have downloaded all the rp data regarding the examples put on here. I have even copied guests posts ae read and re read them.

vdw bets are very few and far between.
But.
the bones of it enable us to pick winners every day. and quite a lot of systems have vdw thinking behind them.

there is no magic formula because somebody would have found it. the vdw principles have been there since the first horse ran and form noted down.

VDw is not some secret society either. it is just kept going by those full of their own self purpose. it is a self perpetuating myth.

the truth is that vdw is a valid way of form reading but here are a thousand others. The permutations are endless.

Im not knocking it for a second. far from it. in fact it has taught me a lot. a lot about form and a lot about ego. a lot about people. a lot about how people who think they have knowledge think they have power. those that really have knowledge are pleased to share it and are the powerful ones.

you may get 80% sr but i seriously doubt it.

Please take a look at the table below.

I can absolutely assure you that this is VDW.
Those that say it isnt would say that wouldnt they. but it is.

It fits all the examples given. now look at the figures that have * after them. It points the way to how we balance form and class.

It is always down to interperetation and opinion. VDW had his and it is not unique and we will never agree.

This post will get buried under a thousand more but if you read it and take a look at my tables you will have all you need.

And before you say it, no I didn't type this but it is my view.


Thanks again and be kind to each other.

Its Life Jim But Not As We Know It.

 YORK, 13 Jun 2003, 3:15, SportingOptions.co.uk Rated Stakes (Class B) Showcase Handicap (4yo+,0-100),Winner £12,574.40,(6f3y)6f GD-FM, 12 Runners Handicap

Fayr Jag,,..................................Form 2 ¬3*¬1*  (6*)  sp lto 5/1 ln 4* Av = 12k, Ab = 8.3k  Score=5+3
 106C 6f 1*/½L 16rs  GF Pon  12K    (12 days)(g)   (** DIST  lengths)    Same class 12K, BUT chk figures
 101B 6f 3*/1 8rs  GF Yor  15K    (29 days)(g)(c)   (** DIST  lengths)
99C 5f 2 /3 11rs**  Fm Bev  9K    (58 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **) 

BT

It is not a matter of debate, but of accuracy, which seems in short supply on the thread at times.

My method is the fundamental one VDW showed us - identifying class/form horses with enough going for them, capability-wise, to be worth backing at the available price. While this certainly doesn't produce a bet every day, and I've found very little over the last week or so, I've had rather more than three bets so far this Flat season, and would expect a good many more than the number JIB got so excited about. But, as I expect we can all agree, it is not really about how many bets one places, but about the profit one makes.

Dr Fulham,

That may be so, but far more importantly, do you look like Victor Meldrew?

111
.

DETERMINED
I agree with you re Cat´s Whiskers and Crow Wood.
Albuhera has the form to win this, but his previous wins have come after showing good form in decent races, not the case today?
Cat´s Whiskers to win, but not a bet for me.
Good luck if you play.

Fulham / Johnd,

Thanks for the feedback on the 2.00 York.

Judging by the money for Cats Whiskers this morning Ladbrokes may have been wrong to offer the 9/2.

With regards Albuhera, I accept Johnd`s comments and one further point, we don`t know whether `A` still retains the ability. I believe he does and the prize is cetainly worth taking.

My initial decision was no bet and I`ll stay with that.


Johnd,

I see you have put up Grand Passion on the 80% thread. A horse I have been waiting for since his early season win. Has been entered in several valuable one mile h`caps but hasn`t run, I suspect as each race was run on soft / heavy going.

Why now run him over the 10.5 furlongs ??? I have 2 points of view, ie - (a) the horse has been showing at home that he now needs this extra distance or (b) they need to get a run into him and this the the only available option at present. If it is the former then he wins but at the price I`ll let him run.


Good luck,

III,lol,lol
Mr Oh so righteous

BT

If you attend to accuracy and method, you won't make a prat of yourself as with Dumaran.

in reply to jibs, sarcastic post,i thought the idea of this forum is to share and discuss racing matters, not to criticize each other comments, for jibs, PERUSAL today....grand passion....FOURTH DIMENSION,DAZZLING BAY?

[This message was edited by grundy on June 14, 2003 at 01:12 PM.]

Some conclusions from evaluations today.

York 3.10

Dazzling Bay c/f - The Kiddykid 2nd c/f - River Falcon 3rd c/f

3 most cons from f/c - The Kiddykid (4), Wahsheeq (11), Flying Express (4), Majestic Times (10) - 37% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - The Kiddykid (4), Flying Express (4), Mr Malarkey (7), Lindens Lady (8) - 42% likely to provide the winner.

Going through the form, Dazzling Bay has the best credentials having improved from 2 to 3 and stepped up to 6f. However, he doesn't feature amongst the consistent horses and is, like the others, going up a long way in race class. The most probable winner, but not a bet to make.

York 2.00

Crow Wood c/f - Cat's Whiskers 2nd c/f

3 most cons from f/c - Cat's Whiskers (9), Crow Wood (5), Tedstale (15) - 51% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - Cat's Whiskers (9), Crow Wood (5), Oldenway (8) - 61% likely to provide the winner.

This lies between Crow Wood & Cat's Whiskers. The latter has yet to win this season, but has been running well in better class without winning. Crow Wood has also run well in better class, but has won either side of that and now has less weight to carry today. Crow Wood looks the most probable winner, but Cat's Whiskers has shown class also in a better race. A book that bettered evens the pair would be a good investment in my view.

Sandown 2.15

Lafi c/f - Baldour/Flint River 2nd c/f

3 most cons from f/c - Shiny (15), Lafi (6), Flint River (12) - 58% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - Prince Hector (14), Lafi (6), Flint River (12) - 60% likely to provide the winner.

Lafi is lightly raced and weighted to have every chance, though hasn't beaten anything so far in the context of this race. Baldour and Flint River were both dropped last time and both ran well at brighton. They are back up a long way in class though here. Lafi looks the most probable winner but not a certainty to put money on.

Bath 4.55

Lord Kintyre c/f - CD Flyer 2nd c/f - Texas Gold 3rd c/f

3 most cons from f/c - Lord Kintyre (19), Texas Gold (20), CD Flyer (18), Hard To Catch (18) - 69 % likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - as above

Quite a bit of conflict here with various horses having shown form in much better class. There is no edge really and a race best left alone.

Nottingham 4.05

Cripsey Brook c/f - Javelin 2nd c/f

3 most cons from f/c - Cripsey Brook (5), Javelin (10), Rani Two (13) - 66% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - as above.

Cripsey Brook looks the most likely winner, though there are some higher rated non form horses who could come back in this class. For example Free Option or Luxor at their best could prove troublesome. No bet race.

Hexham 3.00

Batswing c/f - Damiens Choice 2nd c/f

3 most cons from f/c - Batswing (7), Catrionas Choice (8), Moon Glow (8), Ceresfield (6) - 51% likely to provide the winner.

3 mons cons field - Batswing (7), Catrionas Choice (8), Moon Glow (8), Didifon (7), Ceresfield (6) - 64% likely to provide the winner.

Batswing has a lot going for him, but not enough for me to make him a good thing. The 2nd c/f horse Damiens Choice put in a bad one last time in the race Batswing was 2nd class 122. No surprise to see DC reverse those placings today. Not a race for me though.

If I can get better than evens Crow Wood and Cat's Whiskers then I'll back them. Nothing to put up on the 80% thread though, I'll be using single selections for that.

Guest,
Good luck in the first at york, these figures (5), (6), (9), etc, still dont see how you are going about finalising to a final percentage im totaling them up for the whole field you say then adjust to find the %?, sorry for asking again, but its important to me.

Isee that Krugerand, Tedsdale and Albuhera have just pissed all over all those oh so valuable VDW books.

Jib
Give it a rest,People are trying to open up a bit that's what you wanted isn't it,As soon as there's a blip your straight there with your bias comments,Why not give it a chance.

Barney
Where you been hiding.

Walter - Total up for the whole field, then adjust the percentages according to the total you got. IE if total was 80% then divide this by the difference between the total and 100%. In this case 80/20=25%, so totals need adjusting by +25%. If more than 100% total originally then switch the division IE 120% would be 20/120=16.7%. All totals reduced by 16.7%.

As I say not perfect maths, but close enough for a guide and the consistency totals/percentages I use are based on my own research and differ to VDWs.

One point to note on todays calculations was that the race with the lowest chance of the winner coming from the consistent horses went to the class/form horse Dazzling Bay who of course was not in the 3 best cons totals.

The 2 highest percentage probable groups snared not only both winners but most of the places as well.

Investor - Don't rise to JIBs bait mate. 5 minutes after his post, the VDW method pissed all over his predictable comments.

Interesting point regarding todays racing was the mass appeal of Crow Wood and Cat's Whiskers on the board, myself included. What I am always saying about the times in racing when everyone agrees on a good thing?

I'm sure I'll have something to go to war with on the 80% thread next week at Ascot. I hope everyone keeps at it though given the results so far. Nuff said.

FULHAM
If there is anyone on this forum that is a prat its you.You must drink yourself in a pub as you would bore the arse off everyone you self righteous wanker.I had a drink when I posted the original thread and should not have put your name up as someone I admired as I dont.I HAD the guts to put up a horse I lost £200 on and you think I made a prat of myself-what a f*ckin dickhead.If there is any threads I post on in future Doctor please dont reply as your opinions are not welcomed by me or the majority in here.
Aside talking about the geriatric Dick above,I had a real good bit of luck today guys as when me and my m8s were having a pint in our local who should walk into the club but Mark Johnstons Uncle, who knows my father and asked me about him.It was 5.00 pm and as I knew Mark Johnston used to phone him up from time to time with horses which probably were 80% winners(Hinari Televideo 25/1 I can remember)I asked him if he never got anymore phone calls from his nephew, he replied "I was no well lately and as it was my 75th birthday he phoned me last night and told me to have a right good bet on a horse of his today-get your pension on it he told me"the horse in question was Wessex who duly strolled in at the 5.20 at York.I stuck a tenner on Dazzling Bay on the 3.10 York and had £50 to pick up so I just put it all on Wessex and as Old Jimmy told me the stable lads and lassies were going to play on him to "take the early price".I did at 10/1 and could'ent believe how easy it won.Old Jimmy said that S Mohammed and Mark Johnston were devastated when the horse fractured a pelvis as a 2 y'old as Wessex was doing sectional times on the gallops similiar to Mister Baileys and they were very hopeful of getting Group races from him.After todays performance I can see why -he is obviously top notch.
By the way Fulham do you think I should not have bet Wessex today as he did'nt conform to your understanding of VDW or Dazzling Bay for that matter

BT

I regard your post as unacceptably abusive and have drawn it to Gummy's attention.

Since your brief arrival on this thread you have demonstrated an ignorance of VDW's work which needs correcting: I don't mean matters of interpretation, but matters of fact. Indeed, if you were serious about improving your understanding you'd be grateful to be put right on such basic matters. And if you don't want to understand VDW's work properly, at least correcting your errors saves others from assuming that, because you post assertively, you might be properly representing VDW's position.