HOME »
Gummy Racing    Gummy Racing Forum    Gummy Racing Forum  Hop To Forum Categories  Archived Van Der Wheil    VDW (CONTINUED)
Page 1 ... 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 ... 854
Go
New
Find
Notify
Tools
Reply
  
3-star Rating Rate It!  Login/Join 
Member
Posted
York
1:20 Prins Willem
1:50 Duke Of Venice
2:25 Go For Gold
3:00 Bago
4:10 Turnaround
4:45 Fonthill Road
Hamilton
3:15 Double Ransom
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Monday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


B 2:30 f 358- L
B 3:00 f 038- L not in 1st 5 in the betting
B 3:30 f 067- W only 5 runners
B 4:00 e 784- L
B 4:30 e 872- W
B 5:00 f 477- L
N 2:15 e 471- L
N 2:45 e 000- L not in 1st 5 - backed from 100/1 to 8/1 !
N 3:15 c 030- L
N 3:45 d 174- W
N 4:15 d 311- W
N 4:45 e 713- W
W 5:40 d 333- W
W 6:10 d 513- W
W 6:40 d 427- W
W 7:10 c 128- W
W 7:40 d 435- W
W 8:10 e 020- L not in 1st 5
Y 5:25 d 333- W
Y 5:55 f 205- L not in 1st 5
Y 6:25 e 504- L
Y 6:55 f 485- L not in 1st 5
Y 7:25 d 382- W
Y 7:55 e 768- L not in 1st 5 in the betting

12 VDW winners from 24 races

6 races won by a horse not in the 1st 5 in the betting
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Tuppenycat: I've just glanced through your figures so far, for classes A-C I make the result +19 -12. Are you keeping track of number of runners and distance of race?
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
epi - got all my Massey printouts - we can check all sorts !
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Okay, great.
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Wednesday 18th
York
1:20 Spanish Don
2:25 Mephisto
3:00 Ouija Board
4:45 Bygone Days
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Tc
You're doing a great job with the figures!
A couple of queries if I may?
Will your figures show the percentage of '111' horses that actually won during this period?
Will they also show the percentage of winners where VDW indicated that there was a 90%+ chance of the winnercoming from the first 3 on consistency, (e.g 4-5-6 = 90% probability)?
 
Posts: 1512 | Registered: August 20, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Has the deserter's club gone to the wall???????
 
Posts: 1512 | Registered: August 20, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
johnd-

as I said to epi - I have Adrian Masseys printouts for all the races covered, and that sort of information should be relativly easy to extract - if those probabilaties are going to work at all - then it should be during these "Golden" months
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Tuesday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


Y 1:20 c 314- L not in the 1st 5 in the betting
Y 1:50 a 912- L
Y 2:25 a 322- W
Y 3:00 a 423- L
Y 3:35 a 111- W
Y 4:10 c 333- L
Y 4:45 c 322- W
H 2:05 e 532- W
H 2:40 e 087- L not in 1st 5
H 3:15 c 098- L not in 1st 5
H 3:50 e 003- L
H 4:25 f 621- L not in 1st 5
H 5:00 e 093- L
H 5:30 e 385- L 5 runner race

A realy disapointing day ! I expected York results to be better than that !

only 4 VDW winners from 14 races

4 races won by horses not in the 1st 5 in the betting
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
They are not even looking "Over the Wall"

I hope Gummy hasn't "Swatted" them !

I know he had a purge when that idiot started posting.

Confused
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Thursday
York
2:10 Selebela
3:20 Avonbridge
3:55 Take A Bow
4:30 Soulacroix
5:00 Rockets'n Rollers
Chester
2:55 Peter Paul Rubens
3:30 Compton Eleven
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Wednesday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


Y 1:20 b 311- W
Y 1:50 a 145- L
Y 2:25 b 111- W
Y 3:00 a 513- L
Y 3:35 a 166- L not in 1st 5 in the betting
Y 4:10 d 444- W
Y 4:45 c 124- W
K 5:25 d 222- W
K 5:55 d 333- W
K 6:25 d 744- L
K 6:55 d 065- L not in the 1st 5
K 7:25 e 107- L
K 7:55 e 570- L not in the 1st 5
N 5:40 f 000- L
N 6:10 d 444- W
N 6:40 d 706- L not in the 1st 5
N 7:10 f 805- L not in the 1st 5
N 7:40 e 574- W
N 8:10 e 642- L not in the 1st 5
W 1:35 e 121- W
W 2:10 e 162- W
W 2:45 g 222- W
W 3:20 d 221- W
W 3:55 e 423- W
W 4:30 e 112- W
W 5:00 h 000- L

26 races giving 14 VDW winners

6 races won by horses not in the 1st 5 in the betting

Fallachan - Do you realy go to Nottingham to watch the racing ??? Roll Eyes
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
To celebrate Obon we conducted a seance and the shade of VDW became manifest. I cant give you the low-down on hidden factors without being condemned to something unmentionable. Nevertheless, my interview of the ghost wasn't entirely unproductive, e-mail me privately for VDW's postmortem update.
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
johnd - nearest I can find so far is a "3-3-5" "which lost to an "11"( eleven) - 4:30 York 19 Aug
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
epi- the wife's Sister - has to be a real "Tease" !! Razz
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Tuppenycat: in my present emotional melieu, your post is too strong.
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Tc
Basically, it can be assumed from the figures that VDW gave, that any race in which the 3 most consistent from the first 5/6 in betting aggregate to a total of 15 or lower, the winner should come from those 3 90% of the time.
Similarly, horses with the form figures 111 that are in the first 5/6 in betting should win 33% of the races in which they feature.
Personally, I doubt that is the case, but your figures should be illuminating.
 
Posts: 1512 | Registered: August 20, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Try a simple experiment - VDW says that 3-3-3 ie a total of 9 - will trap 99% of winners.

Take 3 dice - the odds on a single dice rolling either a - 1 or a 2 - are 33% - actualy 1 in 3

By VDWs statistical calculations - if you roll all three dice together - then there is a 99% chance that a 1 or a 2 will be featured - ie a VDW win !

My own practical experiment showed something under 90% success !

A real statastician would be able to give the true probability - but the basic premise is clearly wrong !

Further - If the 3 horses in question are in a race of say 50 horses is the chance that their form figures would trap the winner - the same as the liklehood of trapping the winner in a field of 5 horses -

I think not !! - Does this show that even at this basic level - the "Godhead" has "Feet of Clay" ???

Anyway lets see what the figures show at the end of the day.
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Thursday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers

Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const'

Race "class" follows race time.


Y 2:10 a 332- W
Y 2:45 a 121- W
Y 3:20 a 016- L not in 1st 5 in the betting
Y 3:55 b 246- L not in the 1st 5
Y 4:30 b 542- L
Y 5:00 a 301- L
Y 5:30 c 321- W
C 2:20 d 254- L
C 2:55 b 511- W
C 3:30 c 708- L not in the 1st 5
C 4:05 d 711- W
C 4:40 b 522- W
C 5:10 e 322- L
S 2:00 e 322- W
S 2:35 g 258- W
S 3:10 d 392- W
S 3:45 f 363- W
S 4:20 e 772- W
S 4:50 g 333- W
F 5:25 e 000- L
F 5:55 e 115- W only 6 runners
F 6:25 e 177- L
F 6:55 f 000- L
F 7:25 e 692- L
F 7:55 e 444- W

25 races giving 14 VDW winners

3 races won by horses not in the 1st 5 in the betting
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
 Previous Topic | Next Topic powered by groupee community Page 1 ... 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 ... 854 
 

Gummy Racing    Gummy Racing Forum    Gummy Racing Forum  Hop To Forum Categories  Archived Van Der Wheil    VDW (CONTINUED)

© Gummy Racing 2004.