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York
1:20 Prins Willem 1:50 Duke Of Venice 2:25 Go For Gold 3:00 Bago 4:10 Turnaround 4:45 Fonthill Road Hamilton 3:15 Double Ransom |
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
Monday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers
Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const' Race "class" follows race time. B 2:30 f 358- L B 3:00 f 038- L not in 1st 5 in the betting B 3:30 f 067- W only 5 runners B 4:00 e 784- L B 4:30 e 872- W B 5:00 f 477- L N 2:15 e 471- L N 2:45 e 000- L not in 1st 5 - backed from 100/1 to 8/1 ! N 3:15 c 030- L N 3:45 d 174- W N 4:15 d 311- W N 4:45 e 713- W W 5:40 d 333- W W 6:10 d 513- W W 6:40 d 427- W W 7:10 c 128- W W 7:40 d 435- W W 8:10 e 020- L not in 1st 5 Y 5:25 d 333- W Y 5:55 f 205- L not in 1st 5 Y 6:25 e 504- L Y 6:55 f 485- L not in 1st 5 Y 7:25 d 382- W Y 7:55 e 768- L not in 1st 5 in the betting 12 VDW winners from 24 races 6 races won by a horse not in the 1st 5 in the betting |
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Tuppenycat: I've just glanced through your figures so far, for classes A-C I make the result +19 -12. Are you keeping track of number of runners and distance of race?
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
epi - got all my Massey printouts - we can check all sorts !
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Okay, great.
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Wednesday 18th
York 1:20 Spanish Don 2:25 Mephisto 3:00 Ouija Board 4:45 Bygone Days |
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Tc
You're doing a great job with the figures! A couple of queries if I may? Will your figures show the percentage of '111' horses that actually won during this period? Will they also show the percentage of winners where VDW indicated that there was a 90%+ chance of the winnercoming from the first 3 on consistency, (e.g 4-5-6 = 90% probability)? |
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Has the deserter's club gone to the wall???????
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
johnd-
as I said to epi - I have Adrian Masseys printouts for all the races covered, and that sort of information should be relativly easy to extract - if those probabilaties are going to work at all - then it should be during these "Golden" months |
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
Tuesday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers
Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const' Race "class" follows race time. Y 1:20 c 314- L not in the 1st 5 in the betting Y 1:50 a 912- L Y 2:25 a 322- W Y 3:00 a 423- L Y 3:35 a 111- W Y 4:10 c 333- L Y 4:45 c 322- W H 2:05 e 532- W H 2:40 e 087- L not in 1st 5 H 3:15 c 098- L not in 1st 5 H 3:50 e 003- L H 4:25 f 621- L not in 1st 5 H 5:00 e 093- L H 5:30 e 385- L 5 runner race A realy disapointing day ! I expected York results to be better than that ! only 4 VDW winners from 14 races 4 races won by horses not in the 1st 5 in the betting |
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
They are not even looking "Over the Wall"
I hope Gummy hasn't "Swatted" them ! I know he had a purge when that idiot started posting. ![]() |
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Thursday
York 2:10 Selebela 3:20 Avonbridge 3:55 Take A Bow 4:30 Soulacroix 5:00 Rockets'n Rollers Chester 2:55 Peter Paul Rubens 3:30 Compton Eleven |
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
Wednesday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers
Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const' Race "class" follows race time. Y 1:20 b 311- W Y 1:50 a 145- L Y 2:25 b 111- W Y 3:00 a 513- L Y 3:35 a 166- L not in 1st 5 in the betting Y 4:10 d 444- W Y 4:45 c 124- W K 5:25 d 222- W K 5:55 d 333- W K 6:25 d 744- L K 6:55 d 065- L not in the 1st 5 K 7:25 e 107- L K 7:55 e 570- L not in the 1st 5 N 5:40 f 000- L N 6:10 d 444- W N 6:40 d 706- L not in the 1st 5 N 7:10 f 805- L not in the 1st 5 N 7:40 e 574- W N 8:10 e 642- L not in the 1st 5 W 1:35 e 121- W W 2:10 e 162- W W 2:45 g 222- W W 3:20 d 221- W W 3:55 e 423- W W 4:30 e 112- W W 5:00 h 000- L 26 races giving 14 VDW winners 6 races won by horses not in the 1st 5 in the betting Fallachan - Do you realy go to Nottingham to watch the racing ??? ![]() |
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To celebrate Obon we conducted a seance and the shade of VDW became manifest. I cant give you the low-down on hidden factors without being condemned to something unmentionable. Nevertheless, my interview of the ghost wasn't entirely unproductive, e-mail me privately for VDW's postmortem update.
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
johnd - nearest I can find so far is a "3-3-5" "which lost to an "11"( eleven) - 4:30 York 19 Aug
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
epi- the wife's Sister - has to be a real "Tease" !!
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Tuppenycat: in my present emotional melieu, your post is too strong.
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Tc
Basically, it can be assumed from the figures that VDW gave, that any race in which the 3 most consistent from the first 5/6 in betting aggregate to a total of 15 or lower, the winner should come from those 3 90% of the time. Similarly, horses with the form figures 111 that are in the first 5/6 in betting should win 33% of the races in which they feature. Personally, I doubt that is the case, but your figures should be illuminating. |
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
Try a simple experiment - VDW says that 3-3-3 ie a total of 9 - will trap 99% of winners.
Take 3 dice - the odds on a single dice rolling either a - 1 or a 2 - are 33% - actualy 1 in 3 By VDWs statistical calculations - if you roll all three dice together - then there is a 99% chance that a 1 or a 2 will be featured - ie a VDW win ! My own practical experiment showed something under 90% success ! A real statastician would be able to give the true probability - but the basic premise is clearly wrong ! Further - If the 3 horses in question are in a race of say 50 horses is the chance that their form figures would trap the winner - the same as the liklehood of trapping the winner in a field of 5 horses - I think not !! - Does this show that even at this basic level - the "Godhead" has "Feet of Clay" ??? Anyway lets see what the figures show at the end of the day. |
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Jolly Swagman Member ![]() |
Thursday - 3 most consistent - Winners/Loosers
Consistency figs of Winners vs VDW prediction of 3 most const' Race "class" follows race time. Y 2:10 a 332- W Y 2:45 a 121- W Y 3:20 a 016- L not in 1st 5 in the betting Y 3:55 b 246- L not in the 1st 5 Y 4:30 b 542- L Y 5:00 a 301- L Y 5:30 c 321- W C 2:20 d 254- L C 2:55 b 511- W C 3:30 c 708- L not in the 1st 5 C 4:05 d 711- W C 4:40 b 522- W C 5:10 e 322- L S 2:00 e 322- W S 2:35 g 258- W S 3:10 d 392- W S 3:45 f 363- W S 4:20 e 772- W S 4:50 g 333- W F 5:25 e 000- L F 5:55 e 115- W only 6 runners F 6:25 e 177- L F 6:55 f 000- L F 7:25 e 692- L F 7:55 e 444- W 25 races giving 14 VDW winners 3 races won by horses not in the 1st 5 in the betting |
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