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Member |
Well, I'm lucky I didn't need to understand VDW to know that the 315 was a no bet race.
I must say again that an approach like JIB's - looking for horses placed in races to win - will probably be more profitable than any system tied to recent form. After all, good recent form is what the crowd looks at, and so do bookies, thus returns from such will always be depressed by overbetting. Strider will piss in at a decent price in one of his next few races, imo. We just have to be patient and trust connections. Cheveley Park are no mugs. Although nobody wanted to agree that Betbetter's and VDW's top-rated are very likely to be the same animal in certain races, I think it may well pay you all to look at Claiming races. Certainly Betbetter's clear top-rated will do well here. I wouldn't be surprised if VDW picked the same selection. I admit, however, that I have not the slightest understanding of VDW, so this is no more than guesswork from me! This message has been edited. Last edited by: Seanrua, |
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Member |
Well done with Trilemma, Tuppenycat!
I'd missed it till I saw it flagged elsewhere. Once again, good trainer placing,with a purpose, imo. |
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Member |
T.c
I thought it was present day examples that contributors wanted,They used to play up f..k when i was on here before about past examples.I have given a present day one in flame pheonix.I'm not interested in massey ratings or anything like that and i can't access any other part of this forum so i wouldn't have known about the other stuff.O.k from a vdw point of view what do You see the form is there on r/p website (i prefer the paper version) have a look and tell me what you see.  |
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investor
rp,paper version?,you think its last 3 runs is enough to go on,i could never select a horse from the paper version |
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Member |
Greg
it's last 3 runs gives a big indication and sometimes you needn't look any further.On the other hand you may have to go back through horses form which can be done via the website.So i suppose i agree that the paper version isn't always enough. |
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Jolly Swagman Member  |
investor - the bloody race is over and done with !
Instead - pick a race tommorrow and tell us before the race - from "Your" VDW perspestive exactly how "YOU" see it !! If you want respect on this thread - that is the only way that you will achieveit !! In the meantime I suggest that you read the following post from "nofinepix" and consider how we can all work together to change his viewpoint ! quote: tc |
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Member |
T.c
Calm down for goodness sake,I know the bloody race is over.The thing is there may not be a horse the those credentials for a couple of days,a week or maybe even a month.They don't come along like buses mate.i mentioned patterns to walter pigeon this horse had the patterns that i mentioned and that are evident in vdw's examples,That's the reason why i mentioned it,Just trying to be helpful that's all. |
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Jolly Swagman Member |
Great ! - as a VDW "Teacher" and "Disciple" - trying to be helpfull - you will be pleased to point out to us - the "patterns" that are evident !!
"Aftertime" - of course !!! |
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Jolly Swagman Member |
One minute its a horse that neither you nor VDW would have bet on - next its a horse that comes along "once in a lifetime" ????
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Member |
TC,
Re egg on the face, why would you think that? The method is all about all the pieces being in place. As you pointed out Strider had a lot going for it, as you also pointed out it failed in the ratings. You have said you put a fair bit of faith in Massey's ratings, have to admit I often have a look at them. Strider was also well down the Formcast ratings and my speed ratings. With this in mind even though he was consistent would he have come into VDW idea of the winner? Reading SIAO I don't think so, based on what was said about some of the consistent horses in that article. VDW said mark off the 4 highest on ability, and the 3 best for consistency. King and Country was included in both sets and VDW said he had nothing going for him. Could this be because he failed in the other ratings, the ones that are not important? As I have said I'm pleased to see you are putting in some work on understanding VDW. May I suggest you record the consistent horses that are also well placed in two sets of ratings? VDW said his rating were based on two separate ideas. I have know idea what factors are used in Formcast or Massey so I wouldn't use both of them together. Weight seems to come into most peoples ratings, so I use s/f that don't use weight and another. Can I also ask why you think folk should give selections, then reasons for the selections? On top of this research the old races for others, and then pass on their findings. If someone does all this work, what incentive is there for anyone else to do any? There are people that will help anyone who has put in a bit of work, read a few VDW books, and made an attempt to study the old races. Some of these races can be found in the Racing Post data base. I can't remember anyone asking for the information needed to make these examples work. That maybe because it is easier to sit and wait for others to do the work, or just say it isn't necessary. What is the point of putting up selections when you have no idea if they would the same as the method you are trying to work out? Without looking how do you know now many other consistent horses were in the examples? Why was Righthand Man the c/form horse in that race, (VDW said he was, not Fulham, Guest or anyone else) he wasn't in the lowest 3 for consistency? In the past the most vocal have only been asking for proof. If they want proof why not look for themselves? You have, I'm sure that if it continues, and you look in the right place help could be forth coming. Be Lucky |
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Member |
I was so impressed by STRIDER (Last of 14 - 9/2 fav) that I bought the glue-pot .....
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Jolly Swagman Member |
ftse -
not often that "Stoute" - drops a real "Bollock" - but he did so today !!! |
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Member |
Well done TC and M Prescott,50% strike rate at course in recent times
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Member |
TC,
I know the post was address to Investor, but you asked the question how do we change his mind. I know nothing about 'nofinepix' but the question I would ask before I worried about what he thought about this thread or VDW in general would be. Have you any of the books, have you studied Lee's selections? If you have what if any conclusions have you arrived at from them? I except the thread is getting too big, but have you followed one persons posts to find out how they look at the problem? Have you asked any questions about anything, if so did you get a reply? If you didn't then you should have asked again. If you did was the query acted upon in anyway? I don't know what you do as a hobby, but if it is say golf. How long would you spend helping someone to improve their game? Would you even entertain helping them if they couldn't be bothered to buy their own clubs. They want to borrow yours, and not even help carry them. I say ask some questions if you are really interested. If you are just another who wants something for nothing, try somewhere else. ***** Just because the race is over do you really think nothing can be learnt from it? If there is one thing that makes me despair it is the chap that can't wait to give more money to the bookie. Without looking to see what if any mistakes were made when the last bet was made. Be Lucky |
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Jolly Swagman Member |
Mtoto -
quote: - Dunno ! - But - I try to !!! thort thats wot its all obout  |
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Jolly Swagman Member |
Mtoto - tell you wat -
I'm going to get back to doing some - "number crunching" I have no wish to ask "Questions" of any - ex Forum member - until they have established their "Credentials" by pre race posts !! when I see some constructive - "Pre Race Posts" - I'll talk again to the Ouzelum bird brigade ! - until then I'll - "Keep throwing the Rocks" !!! By their "Posts" - You shall - "Know Them" !!! tc ( "nofinepix" is one of the most respected and hardworking members of the Forum !) NB any reply to this post will be ignored !! This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat, |
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Member |
T.C
oh dear.The horse ran in a novice hurdle,Vdw didn't touch novice hurdles so therefore wouldn't have played in the race.The fact i was trying to make that it was a good recent example that's all.I'll say no more on the subject.  |
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The Vital Spark Member  |
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Member |
Tuppenycat,
Thank you in advance for carrying on with the number crunching. I don't think we're going to see many VDW selections for modern racing. To my limited understanding, there was no horse that met with VDW criteria today. Certainly, Strider - up in class bottom weight - in a middling handicap at Ripon wouldn't come near qualifying. Anyway, don't be worried about Stoute; he dropped no bollock; just making sure all those who are tied to recent form get thrown right off track, that's all. I'm not a very good punter, but Strider has made me money before, and he will do again. There will be other days! |
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Jolly Swagman Member |
Sean - maybe Undeniable did in the 4.00 - but at 4/6 in a novice chase - would you want to play ??
I'd want to have those odds - just on him - "Getting Around" !!! Is that "aftertiming" - or a simple "Comment" ?? This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat, |
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