Epi/Jib
If you insist on shooting the messenger, at least read the message first!

Investor
I am surprised that you are surprised that the breakaway forum didn't put up their pre-race selections
It was formed on delusions, and it perished because of them.
Not only has justice been done, it has been seen to be done. (Though they tried to keep it quiet).

JohnD,

I didn't say the method was about ratings, I said ratings are a PART of the method. More to the point VDW said it as well. From memory I think he said it in letter 20, No Magic Formula He certainly said it in SIAO, and went to the trouble of showing them. He had also mentioned ratings twice as I pointed out up to and including letter 13.

I happen to think speed is one of the ratings. As you say he used it in the Roushayd method, but you make it sound as if it was a one off. He also used it to form lists of horses to follow, unexposed 3 year olds, older horses on the flat, jumpers, and even mentions it in the method that found Desert Hero.

JIB,

I can only agree Somnus is a good consistent horse, just the sort to put the money on. Not sure I agree about conditions not effecting the horse, is it coincidence he has never won on a stiff track? That is after 5 tries, one of which was in France, suppose they took him for the day out! Also had a quick look at Atlantic Viking, while not consistent he was running against other inconsistent horses. With a LR of 2.20 his form figures ( 014) showed he was in with a better than fair chance, whereas 000 has a LR of .54. Looks as if VDW was being generous with his 2% chance of winning with form figures of 000. You pay your money and take your choice, but I know where I would prefer my money to be.

Be Lucky

Epi
Hopefully i can learn some more and in the same vein, maybe i can be of help also.I'm not going to make any wild statements that i know it all because i don't.But i have looked at an awful lot of horses (vdw's) and there are patterns that can only be seen in the form books.

Thanks for welcoming me back (jib as well) and hopefully we can all help each other afterall we are racing enthusiasts at the end of the day and that's what this thread is all about.

3.15 rip
In my opinion TELEMACCHUS is the class form horse with obvious factors against.So the race is dead from a punting point of view.Remember it is the c/f horse that should be supported when everything is in it's favour,Having said that there are 5 horses in this race that should produce the winner.Galvanise,Jimmy byrne,Rotuma,Stretton and Strider.I personally feel that Jimmy byrne doesn't possess the class to win this race.The horse with the highest ab rating out of those mentioned is Strider,A 3yo taking on older horses.I feel this one will go close but no bet for me.

New Dawn

Investor,
Welcome back, question if i may.
What in your opinion are the patterns that can only be seen from the form books.

Don't know much about VDW, but I can respond to named horses, so I hope this helps somebody;

Somnus;
A great money-spinner. I follow the beast because I follow Pivotals.
Pivs love sprinting on soft ground (imo).
I agree with JIB that shrewd trainer/owner intention is key: this IS the crucial "missing link"( ie not shown in the publically available form), in my view.

Strider;
Another Piv. Again we'd need to know the Stoute/Fallon game plan for this race, imo.

Actually, I'd prefer a few duckeggs in the recent form, but, then, I'm a very contrarian punter.
As there seems to be a bit of hype in the press, I may have to forego any bet at all in this race.
Negative, but it won't cost me to wait till I THINK things are right.

OK, that's my little bit of opinion, now you may all go back to your studies!
And the very best of fortune to all!

Walter,Walter,walter
In time my friend i may answer that question.But i need to see some input from other contributors,Like Epi said,I am still learning and haven't got the qualifications to teach on these methods.In time provided there are some serious contributions on this thread.i will reveal what i have gleaned but only to those who are prepared to help themselves,That includes getting the form books because believe me without them you are pissing in the wind.

3.15 ripon

looks a realy tricky race - but - Strider looks to have a lot going for him -

1 -Chevely Park Stud - which is flying !
2 -Pivotal
3 -Stout/Fallon raiding party
4 -Has finaly got his head in front
5 -Favourite
6 -Top 3 consistency
7 -If you click on - graphical - on the RP horse form page - just look at the way he is "improving"

against that -

- Lousy draw
- My beloved Massey - puts him nowhere !

That's the only post EVER on this thread that I've understood

So is Strider a bet ...... or not ??????

........ or like almost all VDW stuff ........ do we not find out till after the race

No problem investor .

T.C
STRIDER
A 3yo taking on older horses,It may well be there at the death,But not one to get too excited about.

ftse-

at 2.7 on Betfair for a place - I think I'll go for a wee bet ! after all it is nearly September.

Of more interest is the 4.45 !

why should Seb Sanders come all the way up to Ripon to ride Trilemma, when Jamie Mackay is at the same meeting, and could equaly well have ridden it ???

315R has only one horse that has won on soft over 10f. (Rasid) however he wlto, may have peaked and didnt exactly take on the A team.

One that looks v interesting on sire stats is Rotuma who after 3 hcp wins (2Ds and an E) since June is still only rated 75. This looks good placing for a horse who has won 7/31 races so far.

Telemachus has the best recent form in the race, and has little more to do than lto.
Wouldn't be a bet for me, though.

lot of egg being wiped off !!

Stretton

Not in the 1st 5 in the forcast !!

and no one even with a place !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

T.c
if you look at the class that Stretton had been running in compared to most in this race,it isn't suprising that the horse won.having said that finishing 8th of 10 lto didn't look good nevertheless it had shown form in higher class.I said before the race that of the 5 horses i mentioned Striver had the highest ab rating.I was wrong not hard to guess which one it was.Just as a matter of interest it is well worth looking at Flame Pheonix which has just won the 3.30 at sedge not a race that i or vdw would have played in but nevertheless this horse was a good thing.

Walter pidgeon
Take a good look at Flame pheonix.

investor -

I'm sorry to say this as you have just started posting again - but-

"Aftertiming" - is what makes this thread "Stink" as far as the majority of Gummy members are concerned !!

We are working hard to eradicate it !!

If you want to discuss the merits of a horse after a race - Then please put it up before the race - preferably with a few reasons for your choice !!

We are realy pissed off with members who come along and tell us - that they knew all along what the winner was going to be !!!

T.c
I think that was a little bit uncalled for my friend,All i was doing was offering an opinion which i also did before the race.I also put up 5 horses of which Stretton was one,And merely stated that the class the horse had run in was above most of the others in the race.I also said that because the c/f horse Telemacchus had factors against therefore it was a no bet race.Fair enough if i had said i had backed the horse then i could understand your last post,It was an aftertimed opinion not a claim that i had backed it.i also said tht neither i nor vdw would have backed flame because it wasn't a race to play in form a vdw perspective.I didn't even look at the race till just before the off.But for those that are interested in getting to the bottom of these methods there well worth looking at iv'e turned over a new leaf and all i was trying to do was help i apologise if i offended you but to say it was after timed was a bit harsh.

Okay mate maybe I was a bit harsh - you did after all put something up before that race -

It was your post to walter that got me going cos it conjures up the usual VDW attitude of "I know it all and I am not going to tell you !" - Go and buy the form books ! etc

investor - if you have the form books - then do a bit of teaching - and explain whats in them and how the form relates to some of the horses that VDW put up !!

I have frequently put up sections of VDWs writings for the benefit of those who don't have his booklets and see no reason why you can't do the same - to help those who don't have the form books !!

I repeat tho that any hint of aftertime of current races is very liable to draw a "shower of bricks" !!

re - Flame Phoenix I could tell you that it was a bleeding obvious selection - since it was top rated Daily Mail - Top Rated Massey - Massey "Max" - in Gummys top 10 - Gummys Novice selection - only horse with a win to its name - and - Favourite ! - and that I backed it !

But if I did _ I hope that I would be laughed off the thread !!

Anyone who post race - puts up similar VDW claims for a horse, will suffer the same fate from the sceptics on the thread and deservedly so !!

Anyway - At least I put up Trilemma - and gave my reason for doing so !!