50 points lsp is realistic. The fanatasy is getting anybody to agree on pure VDW methods!

Everyone is entitled to their opinion's after all without them there would be no market.

Regards re checking

I am now up to kings ride, plus other topical ones discussed on here.

The methods as I see them, see all horses named backed bar uther pendragon and old fellow/ soaf.

The latter two, in my view, are likely winners and not bets, and of course lyric dance which although a certainty is not backed.

I have also taken the liberty of fast forwarding to the final conclusion - arthurs minstrel, ever smile, valiant warrior and killeshin.

These are identical to the PK scenarios, and if anyone cares to look they will find killeshin almost identical to ascencia.

BOth the above are horses which would not normally be given second glance as to their recent big priced wins, but which when taken in context of all all there recent performances proved to be on very handy marks, no matter what class placed in.

IT is so compelling and obvious that it cannot do anything but fit VDW's other examples.

I have tried my best to help but alas not many are on the same wavelength.

I don't quite know how I get myself into this things. I have nothing against the selection of PK, and Soaf. In fact I agree with both, I can make them both work my way. The thing I can't get my head round is using the c/form method to solve the problem.

In most cases the form element is based on the last run. BL is out of form because the last run was bad. Castle Warden is in form because the last run was better than the run before. Carved Opal is out of form because he fell in his last race. I believe this is how the c/form works, but it is changed to suit circumstances, those circumstances are to make some selections work.

Unless I have missed something the c/form horse is the horse with the highest ability rating that is in form. I except it isn't an automatic bet. As I said before in form is open to interpretation, so how is everyone going to find the same selection? Let's go back to the Soaf race...

Rosette has an ability rating of 20 (on my figures) he won his last race a 26 class race. Judging by other examples he is in form, he has the highest ability rating so is the c/form horse.
Soaf I have already gone through his form. I can see the form is an illusion, but can 4th place be classified as being in form? Just because Lucinda Light has gone and improved doesn't make it a fact Soaf will do the same. We are looking to see if Soaf was in form not LL. I think Crock has summed the race up very well, and Soaf was put away with handicaps in mind, but that can only be conjecture. We are dealing with facts. The facts are Soaf doesn't have the profile of a form horse as explained by Guest.

Be Lucky

Rosette is the only one out of the first four home that is out of form for that race.

very much like johnd's you asked about.

for what its worth.

Barney,

You are going to explain that to me!

Rosette won it's last race, it wasn't an unfancied outsider. The class of the race 26 was compatible with the race in question 39. The last race was a handicap, and he was only carrying 2lb more. He beat a consistent horse that had won it's last race.
I'm lost, how is he out of form.

Think it must be me that needs the luck

Mtoto,

Once again thanks for your reply .I’m always interested in your perspective.

Crock,

I was very interested to see you raise the issue of subsequent form and its relevance.I seem to remember Guest thought it wasn’t part of the method.Chaz, also, in replying to Determined and myself said in relation "It means very little where VDW was concerned." At the time I bowed to their greater knowledge but I’ve never been truly convinced they were right. I’m a little bit more confident with my opinions than I was 6 months ago although at the back of my mind is the thought that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.It won’t do me any harm at all to keep an open mind on this issue in future research.

J.I.B,

Thanks. My mistake. I must be getting paranoid.

Barney,

I see you’ve got a sense of humour ( at least I hope you have or you might be offended). Six months ago,when you discussed a race, I sometimes wouldn’t even have been sure which horse you were talking about , let alone why it was selected. Today you said " I wish people would make themselves clear."

On this most cryptic of threads a quote like that from Mr. Cryptic himself, well, it gave me a laugh anyway.

Cheers everyone.

IT didnt win though, neither did johnd's and for the same reason.

you really should try to work out why.

I know I keep saying it but its for the same reasons as BL.

I have not found one single horse that has managed to overcome that obstacle in the last month.

Bream. LOL. I could soon get back to that.

reminds me of monty python

"what have the romans ever done for us"

coolnagora

Mtoto

From what he wrote about assessing ability with early-season 3yo races it was not to be expected that VDW used the ordinary method of ability rating when assessing 2yo races - and this is supported by the Soaf example.

In my view it is likely that VDW regarded Rosette as out of form by virtue of the class of horse he beat. If I'm wrong, VDW would have had no difficulty discarding what would then have been the joint c/f when studying "the form of all concerned".

I'm also far from convinced that VDW would have regarded the favourite (who was surely an absurdly short price) as a form horse. The key to this would lie with Balmers Coombe, but there is a difference and I'm not yet sure if it is a significant one.

Hi Bream,

Interesting observation and one I had not consciously thought about but it would be fair to say that I rarely consider subsequent form. I think, for me anyway, that it's because in the main with VDW's examples, we are dealing with relatively exposed horses. In these examples I feel I already have a handle on their class and analysis usually centres only on their previous races to assess form.

The example of Soaf is slightly unique in that it was (to the best of my knowledge) the only 2YO example VDW gave. In this instance the only way I can get a better handle on the class of horse that Soaf failed to beat last time is by reference to her subsequent runs.

Don't take my word too literally, unlike some others on this forum, I don't claim to have all the answers. My reading of this race may well be wrong but had the Soaf race taken place a fortnight after his last race and without the benefit of hindsight with LL's subsequent runs then I confess I would have had great difficulty in seeing Soaf as a possible bet.

Cheers

You are all ignoring me
I will ask again
This time I will make it easier
Can anybody here make a 30 point level stake profit over a full flat racing season using any kind of VDW methology

Boozer,

I don't quite understand why you are asking the question. but the answer is yes. From what I can see I would have thought there are several on this thread, but they may be to modest. Or, like me have no intention of proving it in public. From what I have seen of your expertise I would have thought you were well capable of doing it yourself.

Be Lucky (or have confidence)

I make more than 50 points per season (or have done so far). Not with VDW though,
Swish

I aren't very good at Aw and never have professed to be.
However, based on speed figures there were 4 that had got there good figure on Aw actually over Course and Distance, 3 being in same race.
The 3 in same race were EYE CATCHER (which won that race)
SEASTORM and JMW TURNER.
That race was a C race.
We also had MUTAWAJED

I aren't very good at Aw and never have professed to be.
However, based on speed figures there were 4 that had got their good figure on Aw actually over Course and Distance, 3 being in same race.
The 3 in same race were EYE CATCHER (which won that race)
SEASTORM and JMW TURNER.
That race was a C race.
We also had MUTAWAJED (C/D) but in an E).
The only other one that had a decent fig was LONDONER but that was on turf so I would discount that one. (Mind you you must realise that is easy now I know result).
So that leaves 4 still, all very similar on speed.
I would drop MUTAWAJED because its fig was only an E.
Leaves 3.
EYE CATCHER
SEASTORM
JMW TURNER.
Now here is where I would have gone wrong.
If I feel the 6-4 shot and the 12-1 shot are similar matched, I would always go for value, but as JMW TURNER scored best figure in race I would have chosen that one.
So I would have lost on on race,
Cheers
Swish

Don't know what went wrong there,
But any way the above post is correct,
Cheers
Swish

Boozer

Why do you stipulate level stakes? There are degrees of confidence, even within VDW's own selections ("outstanding bet", "good thing" etc), and it is rational to reflect these differences in stakes.

1.35 Cheltenham

Anyone think Ad Hoc is a false favourite ?

What has he achieved over hurdles ?

just had a quick look and in my view he is not a false fav.

not checked to see if hes a bet yet though.

Horus false fav today anyone?.