I have to agree with you, Blackcat, about recent form figures; doesn't meet the criterion, so not a bona fide VDW selection.

I just thought that class is more important than last three placings, so I've backed him.

My other bet in the race is Nunki EW.
I like Cecil.

Exterior has the best record, imo, but I don't like favs in the wet.

Thanks for your comments. Always welcome, as I want to learn.

Seanrua
I don't see how anybody can have Etnaam as a form horse,he has been dropped on 3 seperate occasions.And has been running like a donkey,But having said that mark johnston is a crafty sod an.C says this horse is 2/3 at the distance and 1/1 on the ground so he is capable of winning this it will be interesting to see how the market goes.On recent form Exterior looks the one to beat But there are horses that have been running in decent class and they h o be respected.

In the 5.35 chep.I can't see past El bandito/Robyn alexander.But R.A has been of course for over a year and i,m concernedot he weight that El Bandito is carrying.I fully expect one of these 2 to win but not strong enough to carry my money.

Seanrua
Had a look at this race last night & I had Exterior down as the likely winner, but the fly in the ointment may be Roehampton. Lot of rain since then, so anything could happen.

I'm not too sure about the meaning of form, but this is what I see:

Horse X : has totalled £19.3K in winning prize money.

Last 4 races have been
£12 K ( won)today's distance
£49K wrong trip
£15K w t
£12K w t

TS has been
81
80
62
58


Horse Y has won £13.5K total win prize money.

Last 3 races have been
£2.9K won today's trip
£10.5K won shorter
£13.8K shorter.

Ts has been
54
67
58.

It's wet and horse Y isn't the best on soft.

Perhaps neither of these 3yo is a class or form horse, but I still prefer horse X, which is.......

Seanrua
You have to put everything into context when evaluating a race.Exterior was the most likely winner on recent form,Don't forget this horse won a class 105 2nd to last run then was upped to class 138 btn 1.25 lgs.This rto me would be seen as showing improvement in higher class Which would give him the tag of a form horse.I can see where johnd is coming from but Roehampton nor Etnaam hadn't been expected,But Exterior had done everthing that he'd been
asked and in higher class than most in this race.

Wed 20 Oct.

Result:

Well, the VDW selection that wasn't, didn't win either! Well beaten.

The fav, a progressive horse, won impressively by six lengths.

Those, who doubted Etmaam, were proved correct.

Luckily for me, my own pick, Nunki, came third and paid well on the Tote.

TOP OR, Haadef, was second at 20/1!

OR
H 98, 2nd.
Exterior , 91, winner.
Etmmaam, 90, nowhere
Nunki, 85, third.

The winner was joint top, latest RPR.

Dancing Lyra, which I also mentioned, was nowhere.

Something that I'm starting to pick up on is that horses with less than half a dozen runs seem to do better than those with runs in double figures ( in same age group).

I'll bear that in mind next race.

Seanrua
You seem to have found a good way of rating your horses,But remember it is only a guide.CLASS is kingpin in these methods,But it has to marry up with form.If it is shy of these 2 factors then it is vey unlikely that the horse will win.Exterior was the c/f horse,And it is this type of horse that we want when everything is in it's favour.You don't just discard a horse because " i don't like favs in the wet" if it has shown form or is capable in this ground which Exterior was.

Your point about lightly raced horses is relevent to a degree,But there are plenty of horses that have run countless races that qualify or show up as good things,But at the end of the day it is the balance between class and form that will give the winners.

Thank you, Investor.

I cocked up by rejecting Exterior; I said he wouldn't go in the the soft, but i was completely wrong!

Ease in the ground is what he likes. It was the sire that didn't like cut; this one doesn't like firm.
Bad form reading on my part.

Thursday, 21 October.

There is no VDW race on the flat today.

350 Brighton, £10.4K,D2 , 6f, is near, but I rejected it.

I couldn't see a clear VDW type selection in it, anyway.

Closest I came was this shortlist, which is the four top weights :

Jayanjay
Kingscross
Najeebon
Marker.

I follow Marker because he's a Pivotal, but this race has me guessing a bit too much.

Great Exhibition, Hout Bay and Canterloupe are three more I couldn't rule out.

So, no selection today.

Seanrua
You seem to follow only one race on any given day.With vdw,s methods you want to be looking at

1.Highest penalty value race from principal meeting.Also second highest.

2.Highest penalty value race from other cards.

That gives us 3 races today where our main attention should be focused.In these races the class/form horses are.

3.40 lu MADE IN FRANCE.
3.50 bri MARKER.
4.00 hay GATORADE.

It doesn't neccesarily mean that these will win,But the form of all concerned must be looked at to determine wether or not we have a winner.

Seanrua
sorry,In the 4.00 hay EBONY LIGHT imo is c/f not Gatorade.

Thanks, Investor.

I don't study sticks racing so those other races never trouble me.

One race with these criteria is quite enough for me, and if I can't see a clear selection .I no longer force something out. or drop to lower class races. where the method is far less likely to work, imo.

This is only an experiment, so I'll limit myself quite strictly.

Btw, "when it's wet, don't have a bet" is one of my mottos.

Seanrua
Fair comment but if horses have shown good form in these conditions.Then why not.If i took your line i would hardly have a bet in winter,There are good betting propositions no matter what the weather is like.Probably fewer than normal but they are still there.

Well, the last meeting of the year at Brighton gets blown away!

Yes, Investor, I don't really practice what I preach, as I follow the AW all winter myself.

However, my records tell me I'm crap except in June and July, so I really ought to fk off on holiday overseas now, until May!

I agree that others can make it pay during periods when, historically, I don't.
You're one who can, so good luck to you is what I say.

With my lesser ability, I just have to cut out as many weak areas in my betting as I can.

Like the man said, " nobody went bust from not having a bet."

There's plenty more fish in the sea ( I hope).

Btw, I can't go on holiday, bc I'm knackered, so it looks like I'll be struggling with the sand donkeys yet again.

Never mind, I love it, really!

Seanrua
Please don't think that i was trying to be "holier than thou" that really wasn't my intention.You narrow a field down quite well,But at the end of the day it is the horse that has shown form in better class that these methods are about.Irrespective of what others may say,If a particular horse doesn't have these attributes then we leave alone.But as long as you are happy then i wish you luck.

Investor,

Well done for putting them up before the race!

However is there any evidence that the c/f horse is anything other than a cracking laying system?

Jib
LOL No doubt it often appears that way,But i believe it was fulham that said bacing the class/form horse without taking anything else into consideration would return a level stake profit,Ther are many many c/f horses that go down,It isn't the fact that there not good animals.It's faco that go against them vdw gave a formula it went like this consistent form+ ability+capability+probability+hard work =winners.Our horse has to fall into all of those categories and then we take the race apart.But at the end of the day it's the c/f horse that we want to support,And we do this when everything is in it's favour and i certainly wouldn't lay one of them.

Jib
Talking of laying c/f horse,iv'e looked at my stuff from saurday 9th oct.

9th
2.35 york the prince won 6/1
3.20 hex lost
3.40 not sure about Johnny ebeneezer lost

10th
3.45 good lost

11th
4.10 leic lost
4.30 ayr lost

12th
2.50 leic mansfield park won 4/5
3.40 font lost
4.30 ayr lost

13th
3.35 weth lost
4.10 weth Noshannanikin won 7/2
4.25 utt lost

14th
2.15 new Flamboyant lad w 13/2
2.50 Sundrop w 11/8
4.25 taun palouse w 6/4
4.45 wor lost

15th
2.50 new Royal millennium w 7/2
3.10 red lost
3.25 new lost

16th
2.05 new Firebreak w 11/2
3.55 kel Wildfield rufo w 7/4
3.45 strat Monkrehostin w 7/4
4.35 new millenary w 7/2
2.25 cat lost
2.45 new lost
3.25 new lost
5.10 new lost

17th
3.50 m/r Moss harvey w 7/2
2.20 m/r lost
5.10 here lost
4.oo muss lost

18th not sure about jay gee's choice so a loss
2.40 plum loss
3.20 ponte lost

19th
2.40 ex Sporazene w 1/2
3.30 bath lost
4.30 bath comp bollocks up on my part Hezaam wasn't a form horse.

20th
3.25 notts Exterior w 2/1
5.25 chep El bandito w 11/4

3 losers today.

That's losses of 27 points and wins of 44 points making 17 points profit since the 9th.Without any consideration of the factors involved.So maybe Fulham was right.And i would say to you lay them i you wish but be very careful.

Investor,

Nicely done, 15/42 is a realistic SR too. Its good to see the upholders of vdw being more down to earth.