Ah Guest is nudging us ever closer to the truth, the whole, truth and nothing but the truth.

Will his frustration with us not end until someone posts pre-race exactly step by step thro' a race the way VDW would have done?

Well, I'm not going to go through the whole race suffice to say I rate Grandera a good thing given the opposition today.

I thought I'd just post this one up seeing as I had another little pop at poor old Swish. If it get beats he can have a good go back !

Guest,

It looks as if just now and then the jockey gets it right and makes fools out of us mere mortals. Personally I wouldn't have backed Golan with your money, but what can you say.

Maybe tomorrow.

Oldtimer

guest as i have said before i have no understanding of vdw,but why was grandera a good thing at 1m 4f, only had 13 runs in career,4 tries at 1m 4f and never won at this distance?

Greg,

First, I hope you had a good bet on Golan: a wonderful ride by the best Flat jockey. I think if the jockeys on the first two had been reversed, so would have been the result.

Golan was not readily a VDW bet because there were horses with markedly higher achievements in the race - as gauged by VDW's ability rating - which were also in seemingly better form than Golan. Whether the great man would have found his way past the likes of Grandera and Nayef to isolate Golan as a bet must, I think, be regarded as highly doubtful.

Grandera was the clear class/form horse on the VDW basics: the question is whether he stood up to scrutiny. And there much, as you say, turned on the likelihood of him getting the distance in today's company, having failed to win over it four times already.

Judging by Guest's post, I suspect he thought that Grandera was so clearly better class than the rest that a kind of "Rifle Brigade" situation obtained - though obviously at a much higher level of racing. That is, that a really classy horse would get home over an untried or (in this case) probably less-than-preferred distance against sufficiently inferior opposition. If so, given that Grandera faced four other Group 1 winners, it was an incautious judgement at a price which certainly did not reflect the degree of risk accepted.

Hello fulham
Without going into much detail/ I myself thought GOLAN was very close into being a VDW bet, regarding Grandera i thought he was definatly poor value for a horse which hadn`t won over todays distance. although it had the CLASS/FORM inwhich i pointed out elsewhere.
And the only reason i didn`t back GOLAN was because of a lack of run.
But your recent post, as put me in the light!!!
Although i don`t contribute to the VDW i am always on the sidelines reading the imformative posts.
Keep up the good work!!!
Tony.

"And the only reason i didn`t back GOLAN was because of a lack of run."

didn't golan win his first start at 2 and 3??

YES he has won first time out, But there has been reasons why we havn`t seen him out until today!!! and there was question marks ???? about him running his best today.
WHY did you back him!!!
Tony.

NOPE!!!!!!

It wasn't neccesarily Granderas last run that came out best seeing as he beat a bunch of milers/mile and a quarters, but the run before. Perhaps i inadvertently proved my point about trainers today. Godolphin do have an exceptional record at improving horses at 4 and 5 into superstars but it seems they got it wrong with this one.

To be fair, had Golan not been away for 9 months then his form was top class, relatively speaking, against top mile and a half horses. It certainly was some trainer achievement at such a high level and a little unexpected, but all credit to those involved.

No one ever said 100% certain was possible though, but it's only money lent. That is the best part about VDWs methods, a loser never dents the long term bank.

I don't think even Swish could have a go at you for getting that wrong. As you say nothing is 100% and Shit Happens.

Like Tony L I think most of us dropped Golan from calculations because to expect the horse to win a race of that calibre first time out would be expecting too much.
An admirable summing up of the King george from a VDW point of view by Fulham and an interesting comment re Grandera. Personally I'm coming to the conclusion that in the really top class races ("international class" if you like,) ANY negatives surrounding a horse regarding trip/going etc will be found out by one or more of its competitors. To Grandera you can add Gossamer, Noverre and Hawk Wing to name a few this season alone.
Hopefully Guest will enlighten us as to why he thought Grandera a good thing with the possible distance doubt. Was it a perceived "Rifle Brigade" situation?
regards,
PS In the light of Guest's posting above, maybe I should learn to use the refresh button more often.

Jimmy/Statajack - As mentioned before, I always go back over selections afterwards win or lose as there is often something to be learned. A couple of references have been made to a Rifle Brigade type situation. Well on that front I certainly failed to heed the warning signs. RB was a 3yo stepping up to distances that his 2yo career suggested should suit. 2yos rarely run beyond a mile and often only come into their own over further at 3yo. Grandera had made several attempts at 1m 4f in various class but although only beaten a length into 3rd in a group 1, he had also been beaten a lot further in what should have been a simple task. The drop to 10f had proved his ideal match along with drops in class and add in the sp/market factor and all in all I agree with Fulhams final conclusion on the horse.

Obviously, sometimes I look back on a losing selection and find that for whatever reason the horse failed to gain the day, but on this occassion I think the fault fell upon myself and perhaps a bit too much confidence in those boys in blue.

no doubt you recovered some of your loss with beauchamp pilot,good luck for the coming week

Well i've stopped for the day myself however 4.55 ascot TRUE NIGHT a vdw Bet?

titus

I'm not going to have an interest however watch with interest

Bream/Guest
Consistency figs have nothing to do with ROUSHAYD.

Chaz
Thanks but last run is not always most important.

Guest (again)
I did not do the King George, but having had a look in hindsight, I don't think I would have picked GOLAN and I may well have picked same one as you, and well done to Greg for getting the winner.

Of course I have losers I am just saying REPERTORY really did stand out.

We have been through all this before about too many bets. In fact I asked you how many bets you found in a week/month with your method. You declined to answer.
Then Jimmy pointed out that (as long as you are making money) it can be better to have more bets for lesser percentage of long term profit and lower strike rate but much faster turnover and faster increase in bank.
I used to be a supermarket manager, and believe me that is exactly how they work.
Jimmy is right, of course it is better, providing it ends up with more plus £'s more quickly.

As to your last question, I am doing it for a living, although only small, but building fast.

Do you do it for a living?

Cheers
Swish

Hi Swish,

I totally agree with you that a horse’s last run isn’t always the most important, especially where conditions weren’t suitable. However, if conditions were suitable then you would expect a horse to show good form in good class, relatively speaking, in it’s most recent race before supporting it. This was the case in respect of Repertory and Autumnal; the former horse’s last run being better, class/form wise.

Swish/Guest

As you`re not on the board at the moment Guest, I`ll help Swish with his last question to you.

Swish, go to P163, 24/7/02, 0958am, 3rd para, line one.

Don`t mention it chaps, my good deed for the day.

111
.

Pile it high and sell it cheap.

hello all,

did you miss me ?

thought not!

Guest,

re 85 kg, i get BL as the likely winner with WL well out of form as shown by his last run.

If you could reply "without spelling it out" of course.What were the reasons for it not being a bet. coombs ditch unknown quantity or that WL had not put up enough in that slight rise in class, a race where in my opinion he had shown himself to be capable of a good performance.did vdw think he was upto mischief?