Guest

fancy a chat

Swish - As Three Legs has already directed you to the answer to your last question I won't comment further.

I agree Repertory stood out, but do we both see the same reason why ?

Have you considered why VDW went through Roushayds races in such a detailed manner ? As you know he highlighted the likely winner via class and form for each race, but only backed Roushayd in it's fourth run. We know he felt there was sufficient grounds to leave the likely winner of the first three races, but why did he highlight them at all ?

To answer the above questions would provide a useful measuring tool.

Barney - Not sure how you find Wayward Lad out of form for the 1985 KG at kempton. BHL had the highest ability rating followed by Wayward Lad but only the latter was in form.

Barney - If you are still online, I'll be in the chat room at 10.30

Guest cant get in!!!!

I will keep trying

I give up maybe some other time

Titus

True Night.

I was waiting to see if anyone did make him a vdw selection. I wouldn't have thought his ability rating was high enough. I couldn't have had him a 66 rated horse in a 90 handicap. I had Hormuz as the class/form horse. On seeing that I just crossed the race out. However vdw does work on the premise that ability is there for ever (not sure I can agree with that). True Night did score his best ever s/f at Ascot a year ago yesterday, in a much higher class race than this. I can't get to grips with Nicholls, and how he places his horses. He seems to use scatter gun tactics with his placings, and his horses. Determined was sure he was going to win 2 runs ago (hope he was on this time). I think Nicholls just gets them fit, and then runs as often as possible, and hopes.

Sorry about all this talk of OR's and s/f, Barney, it's the only reliable way I know.

Be Lucky

mtoto
thanks for the reply

titus

Guest,

Kept me up most of the night that one,went through some examples again just to reconfirm what you said and no suprise your right again.

the roushayd illustration looks a good bit different now,although i think it was a bit severe with BHL, though not so with BL.

Is there such a thing as "a form horse out of form"?As inspecting THE form I cant give WL any chance at all, is that why its one to watch?

Thanks

Titus/Mtoto

From my perspective, True Night yesterday was well clear on the ability rating among the first six in the forecast, and the two outside the six with higher ratings were out of form. Further, although yesterday's race represented a rise in class from its recent ones, TN had shown last year that it had the capability of winning one of substantially higher class (27/6/01).

Alas, this happy picture on the "class" side was not matched by a comparably satisfactory one on the "form" side. Thus although the way some of this trainer's horses run is, shall we say, idiosyncratic, TN was not for me a bet following VDW's approach.

On the matter of the trainer, I would offer the following observations, passed on to me by a colleague:

* in general, his highly "tipped up" horses, those tipped by high profile "public" tipsters such as Pricewise, lose;

* the early prices offered on this trainer's horses by Victor Chandler are often a guide to their real chances: if VC is lower than the other major bookmakers, for me that would be a positive sign, while the converse would be true if he were higher. This, I am assured, has nothing to do with the issue of VC's "no loss" accounts seemingly under investigation by Panorama, but nevertheless is said to have a tangible base.

I haven't yet assembled the systematic records which would enable one to judge whether these observations are more than chance. However, since I've been aware of them they seem to stand up: the only exception I've found so far to the first being Tayseer last Summer, which is understandable when one considers that it was part-owned by a leading tipster who had given the horse as a bet on his subscription line.

Sunday`s race saw him pull very hard as usual in the early stages despite which he still showed plenty from the distance over a very stiff mile.

Rest assured this horse is now in form and knowing what he is capable of given a fast run race which he should get at Goodwood he should be on everyone`s shortlist.

That said, he`ll have to be evaluated against the opposition.



Mtoto,

I didn`t back him Sunday as I couldn`t split TN, Inchdura and Salty Jack (my way). Should of had the bloody tricast.



Cheers,

Very early indications would appear to show up a highly probable winner in the first tomorrow.

Its never that easy though is it ?

fancy a chat anyone?

Barney - Have you looked at all four runs for Wayward Lad prior to the KG chase ?

Something about his form should hit you relative to the KG field. More over what he was capable of. He was a form horse as was Combs Ditch and Earls brig. Burrough Hill Lad was one of the 3 most consistent but not a form horse. Wayward Lad had the highest ability rating of the form horses and also the best form. It is slightly hard to see why he was 12/1 in such a small field, but VDW rated him as one of two good things over the Christmas holiday program from around a dozen selection he thought should win, but only backed Wayward Lad and Von Trappe. The latter was also the class/form horse in his race.

ok Chaz

guest,

what a cock up

i spent all night studying the 1984 kg!

better go to the shop for more midnight oil.

feeling chatty?

Hi Determined,

Whilst I think you may have identified the most likely winner in Kirovski, I am a little concerned about the weight issue. Lto he put in a quality performance against Vintage Premium, but was receiving a stone in weight. He gave Leadership a few pounds and finished in front of him, but when we compare the 2 horses that should have been the case. Today Kirovski is certainly the class/form horse but is giving a lot of weight around and hasn’t shown in the past that he is capable. In the Oak Tree Stakes I make Lipstick a good thing though.

Rather than Lipstick, I prefer Mauri Moon.

Purple Haze for me

Chaz,
I'd be inclined to agree with you on that. Kirovski is easily the class/form horse but I dont think its ever won carrying 9-0 stone or more. Before putting the cash down I'd be wanting proof that it could successfully carry 9-6. That said, its still the most likely winner.
regards,