this looks to have a good chance there is no fondmort or seebald here.

admiral collins

this sadlers wells colt should improve for the run and the step up in trip

While I take you point about Salute, the horses finished very close together in the Cambridgeshire, but it is my view that Chivalry was seriously disadvantaged by the draw.
It is also interesting that G. Duffield, on the morning line, made C his charity bet, even though riding at another meeting.

Generally,
3 bets today, based on my understanding of VDW:

5.35N Chivalry

3.20N Salim Toto

3.05D Bahamian Dancer

Luck to all

I know what you mean, but I have taken the view that that was his best trip and the salute the wrong one.

but even that flies in the face of solo flight who i thought a good thing last time and performed not unusually, but never at the races

Further to my comments last night. If you email me at statajack@yahoo.com I may be able to help. That is of course, if your interest is a genuine one.
regards,

I have Solo Flight down as suspect on soft going.
I like you 2yo though, it seems that all the best of R. Sangsters 2yo run at this track.

Luck for today

Thanks again for your offer of assistance.

Mtoto - Re Lord Protector and the ability rating. yes the ability rating is a useful guide as to the horses ability to win races, but it does happen that some horses are continually put in races beyond their ability and therefore fail to win as many races as perhaps they could. The highest rated ability horse in the field was Millenium Force who was also 2nd rated on speed/merit. Whilst he had won with significant weight before, his last three runs had all been with lesser weights, so suddenly carrying 9-9 against others with similiar levels of form was a negative in my view.

Pablo was 2nd rated on ability and showed himself out of his depth last time, but had won a good race relative to Newmarket before that. Lord Protector had only won the one race, but had a ts of 81 and was 3rd rated in the field. He also had shown the class and form to win such a race and note the significant jockey change along with the way the trainer was now placing him.

The race called for a book, and at the prices I cautiously chucked in a couple of other potential blots but they were not needed really.

Yesterday using the same approach gave the 14/1 winner and 6/1 2nd of the 3.55 at Newbury along with the one two in the 3.20. It also isolated Bond Boy at 12/1 in the last at Doncaster. At Kempton it showed why Rooster Booster was a true odds on chance.

I made 2 bets at Arlington last night with Rock Of Gibraltar and High Chaparral.

Guest,

Thanks for your comments re yesterday's racing, as it confirmed that I must be making a little progress in that both Dumaran and Bond Boy looked good to me, as did Smokin Beau the day before.

Slowly but surely I am perhaps making a little sense of what is posted on here from time to time.

Oldtimer

Unfortunately I didn't have time to analyse yesterday's racing properly, so missed MILLENNIUM FORCE who won by 8l at 3-1. Yet again he was top on Ability, Consistency and Class of Recent races.
The only other one who fitted similar criteria was Again An Again at Carlisle, but his form was Irish form, and it's difficult to carry the values of lower class Irish races across to British form.

Rob

Guest,

Thank you for trying to explain the reasons for picking Lord Protector. I can see he has run in classier race than this, but he has also run in far weaker races. That would be my main concern, he has failed when expected as you put it. Interesting that your 2nd c/form horse in this race was my c/form horse, I also felt he wasn't up to winning it.

I have to agree about Rooster Booster, I was amazed at the price. How ever it brings me back to one of the doubts about your understanding of in, or out of form. RB was the horse that should have been favourite, does this make the horse that the punters made favourite out of form? I appreciate he was running in a hurdle race, but these things can happen in chases as well. Looking at your other results for Saturday, I see it is more than likely we agreed on the horses most likely to win other races. Wonder if you could just post the c/form horses in those races?

Swish,

Sorry I couldn't have explained myself very well. I made Smokin Beau the c/form horse, as I expect Guest did. I don't know if Guest decided to back him, I was just pointing out that although we work from different angles we often arrive at the same horse. Others seem to ignore the clues that are posted on the board. I am not saying that the c/form horse is an automatic bet. If you isolate it you at least know what you have to beat, if you decide to go against it. Before I started on this board I had never even heard of a c/form horse. That doesn't change any of the horses I posted before, it just gives them a name. To me they where just the best horse most likely to win.

Oldtimer,

Glad to see it is starting to come right for you, I never doubted that it would. You have been logging all the right information, and it was just a matter of time. Good consistent horses with PROVEN ability win, it's as simple as that.

Be Lucky

Hello Guest
You say this animal represented a true odds on chance,How, It was pretty obvious there were only 2 horses that could realistically win this race,But rooster Booster had not won once from 14 starts at this distance,Vdw as we all know is based on logic,But as far as i'm concerned this is not a good statistic that would give me confidence,In fact i'm mystified i hope you can find the time to shed some light.

do you think bond boy was a Roushayd?

Carlton is a much better horse on genuine soft ground, and if he gets it tomorrow, he should run a big race.

as i have said before,bought all the vdw books,getting through them in my spare time,then will go through them more thorougly.
not tried it yet,applying it to races,but on my thinking i must agree with what swish said a while back,about adding up form figures to get cons rating,i know its only a guide,but,horses get nailed by the hcapper by rattling up decent figures e.g 121 etc,

what about greenwood?

Greg you say horses get hammered by the handicapper when they have 121 but they still
win alot more than the 000 horses.handicappers
can only try and slow the best horses down not
make the slow ones run any faster.The idea of the
handicap is to try and get horses of a similar
ability running together.I don`t really think the
handicappers do that good a job ,how often do
you see a blacket finish.This is the handicappers
job.Most horses in a race can be dismissed as having no realistic chance of winning the race
because there not good enough or arn`t in form.
I think many horses are still being penalised for
form they had many months before and other horses
aren`t raised fast enough.Once a horse comes into
form it can be hard for the handicapper to keep
up with him.If he runs in the right class and
isn`t put in over his head.

Barney - Much of the hidden factors involved in the Roushayd method were used to isolate Bond Boy, again though I am not about to point them out for all to see, though in truth they are not difficult to spot.

Investor - I don't think a horse who has won a much better race over 2m 1f would have much difficulty in winning over 2m, in fact I would say the distance in the race made no difference at all. Mr Cool achieved no where near the heights Rooster Booster had before Saturday and worse still had been chasing most of last season. Chasing back to hurdles rarely comes off, especially against good horses. Rooster Booster apparently doesn't jump fences too well at home, though you didn't need the trainer to tell you that verbally as his continued racecourse appearances over hurdles does the trick just as well. RB has or had a similiar popular opinion about his will to win as Lord Protector, but those voicing this opinion in the main don't look at the races properly and determine if either horse was losing races they actually should have won.

In any event, I was astounded that Rooster Booster was not around 4/6 at least, but again the betting public put blind faith in Pipe and McCoy without looking at the form properly.

Guest, like yourself I backed Rooster Booster yesterday and was as pleased as punch to have obtained 15/8 for a very strong bet. Fitness aside he had nothing to fear from any in the field, VDW showed in examples such as Rifle Brigade, horses can win over an inadequate trip and after a lay off when the horse has the class and form for the race in question (although to be fair a 1f shorter trip could hardly be considered to be inadequate!) It is not often that one can be so confident of a selection and the manner in which he ran and won was a joy to watch. Zafarabad also did the trick yesterday. I would like your views if I may, on Upgrade today. In hindsight I may have made a mistake on this one but at 4/1 felt it worth the risk even after being told by a friend today of the stable confidence behind Valley Henry. It seems the limit of Upgrade is now days found in "B" class handicaps and the like. Well done by the way on your selections Saturday, particularly with Dumaran an interesting selection which I missed I have to admit but after the event I can see where you are coming from in that regard. Very impressive.

M.o.M

Re Greenwood, look at the respective jockey bookings. Also JE thinks the horse is better on a stiff track.

Mtoto
I had the same misgivings about Lord Protector as yourself, but when you look at it in the light of weight carried, and the trainers statement that the horse doesn't like soft ground, then it does paint a slightly different picture. Whether this is enough to induce a bet is a moot point.