I agree with mahouse honour its the lay of the day

Easy game this in'nit. 3 selections, 3 winners and a tidy profit for those who played, from about ten minutes work; if only it was always so.
I reckon I can figure out these, and post them on most days, but the staking plan would not be so straightforward, as you need to know each result before your next bet.
If anyone would like to do the other method that Chaz posted, then we would be able to have an interest on even rock-bottom days like today, and I am sure it would be informative. Any volunteers>?

Barney
Nice one with L de L, ( Thought we'd lost you there for a minute, mate).
It seems that Kings Rapid is a 'bleeder', but if they can keep him fresh, and find him a 6f chase, who knows?
Any chance of an e/w bet on the flies?

that was never going to lose.

its all relative.


IT seems to me that some people might be confusing thought with bets!

LOL

[This message was edited by Barney on October 31, 2002 at 04:06 PM.]

this is where form is discussed the most so i thought i d try here
why is class in hcaps so important,why should an exposed horse struggle when upped in class,it carries less weight,why should it win more downed in class when carrying more weight.
???????

Wetherby 12.45

Horse..............Ability...Cons.....Last Class
Rigmarole..........26........14.......232
Plutocrat..........26........7........20
Supreme Fortune....42........18.......10
Ontos..............26........6........80
Maceo..............40........7........85
Out Of The Shadows.30........15.......80

Rating 1
Maceo
Ontos
Olutocrat

Rating 2
Rigmarole
Supreme Fortune
Out Of The Shadows

Rating 3
Rirmarole
(Marigliano)
Out Of The Shadows
Ontos

Too many conflicts for me.

Ontos is one of those horses that when you click 'Winning Form' on the RP website you see AP McCoy and MA Fitzgerald as the jockeys who can get the horse to win. All other riders fail. Is this because the top jockeys are booked only when the horse is primed?

Wetherby 1.55
Horse.............Ability.....Cons......Last Class
Damus.............56..........13........100
Monarch's Pursuit.44..........16........70
Carrick Troop.....58..........6.........104
Jarro.............80..........9.........50
Xaipete...........33..........9.........30
Super Nomad.......40..........6.........56
Lord Sandrovitch..33..........4.........30

Rating 1
Damus
Monarch's Pursuit
Carrick Troop

Rating 2
Damus
Monarch's Pursuit
Super Nomad

Rating 3
Damus
Monarch's Pursuit
Carrick Troop

Damus seems to be the right one to be on, particularly since only he and Xaipete have a recent run. Also dropped in class and has won carrying 11-10.

Newmarket 2.05
Horse............Ability....Cons....Last Class
Island House.....136........8.......169
Common World.....180........11......115
Grampian.........70.........8.......172
Parasol..........40.........17......98
Mythic...........30.........10......166

Rating 1
Island House
Grampian
Parasol

Rating 2
Island House
Grampian
Common World/Mythic

Rating 3
Common World
Parasol
Island House

Rating 4
Island House
Grampian
Mythic

Island House looks to have a lot of plusses, but didn't really beat much in his last race, whilst Common World ran well against Desert Deer who was dropped from a Group 3 30k and has since won a 16k listed race.

Newmarket 2.40
Horse...............Ability....Cons....Last Class
Archduke Ferdinand..450........22......696
Distant Prospect....237........15......696
Moon Emperor........92.........16......138
Tees Components.....20.........18......696
Conquestadora.......62.........22......696
Turtle Valley.......58.........21......696

With most of these coming out of the Cesarewitch Distant Prospect would be the winner on that form and seems a reasonable favourite.

well done on all that hard work

Sorry this answer is days late. I never saw your original question.
Anyhow, for whatever use it is, I have had a look at the DEFINITE GUEST race and would probably have picked that horse,
Cheers
Swish

No argument about the 2 main meetings today; just one qualifier:

1.30 New. Howle Hill

Swish
As I thought, thanks.

Greg,

class- an exposed horse will struggle when upped in class, unless

a) the trainer has previously got the horse to show good form in this class and has used the lower class and subsequent extra weight to bring it on.

b) its improving and it deserves to go up in class, the market is not always the best guide to these but, in the past, it has proved a usefull yardstick.

Nb

an example of a (above) is supreme fortune.

Greg
The obvious inference is that class is more important than weight as a barrier.

Barney

I am not nit picking, ( Honest to God ), but I must point out that there is no way that an 'improving' horse can be 'exposed'; not just a matter of semantics but a very important distinction, as far as appraisal is concerned.

Method Horses for Saturday

2.30 New Beauchamp Pilot

2.50 Wet Lord Noellie

Ascot No qualifiers.

in my opinion, for what its worth weight is a barrier in its own class unless previously proven with that weight.some move up in class to avoid weight.the thing is what tells the trainer that it is ready to move up.

think back to sun bird big weight against trees?

how can we tell if a horse is improving? it could well run in the same class for its last three runs and finish fourth 5 lgths off the winner each time. Apparently exposed.

[This message was edited by Barney on November 01, 2002 at 09:17 PM.]

You may have a point about weight, it is not something that I have studied very much. Sun Bird had previously beaten 'trees' carrying a big weight, are you saying that the reason he was beaten after the ONC was that he was racing against better 'trees'?
In the other example you gave, all things being equal, the horse cannot be improving! Surely 'exposed' means its best form is there for all to see, whereas 'improving' means the horse is liable to run better than it has so far shown.
VDW gave us more than one way to know when a horse is improving, which I'm sure you are aware of, if this is not the case then you show me yours and I'll show you mine, as the Bishop said to the Actress.

Using the 2 shortest priced forecast favs from the 2 main meetings, the two qualifiers were Epervier D'or and Howle Hill by my calculations. The former was dropping in class, but the latter was actually going up and therefore the price was a risky one to accept, given the market factor previously. Refer to horses such as One In A Million from VDWs bets to see why.

I rated several horses good bets today including Island House (Common World not a form horse), Epervier D'or and Carrick Troop. All 3 were form horses, in fact they were all the class/form horses in their races and had one stand out factor in their favour when looking at just the form horses in their respective races.

Hi how are you?

was archduke ferdinand the c/f or was he even a form horse?

Thanks for the input regarding the 2 shortest price favs, but I feel it is only fair to post the horses using the criteria that obtained at the time the method was published.
In the case of Epevier D'or, there were no ratings commonly available for its previous runs, therefore it did not meet the criteria known/set out at that time.
In the case of the other horse, it was a clear selection as the method was set out. It is up to the individual to use their own discretion as to whether the horse is worthy of support, and whilst any input from other members will always be appreciated, at the moment I will stick to the policy of posting qualifiers from the bare information available at that time, along with ratings from the Racing Post.
It is disappointing that no one has picked up the baton for the other method Chaz mentioned,as I am sure that there would be lessons in there for most of us.

Regards

John D - You only need the class ratings to confirm findings and as VDW said a long time after he gave this further approach, "it is a useful guide to have some other set of ratings to help confirm findings". Useful but not essential, as he also said. Most punters should have recognised one name mentioned in the French form and everyone should be well aware of how forward the French horses are in the jumping department compared to our horses in the main.

The method mentioned by Chaz throws up many a winner and it uses form as it's main criteria along with the betting and consistency. Again no extra ratings are essential to operate this method.

Barney - I didn't make AF a form horse and the class/form horse had factors against making it a lay in my view. No real surprise to see the winner finally deliver, but a bad race to bet in I thought.

Trouble is Johnd that I am active mostly when rest of you are in bed.

Tomorrow I am off to Wetherby races so won't see any other letters you write until tomorrow (saturday) night.
Meanwhile i like DAVOSKI 2.20 ASCOT .
DO YOU?
Swish

I certainly do like Davoski, hopefully for the same reasons as yourself. I do feel a little more rain would make him a good 'thing'.

I dont think Barney's answer satisfactorily addressed Greg's question. Can we define deferences in class and differences in weight in concrete terms, for example, fractions of a second?