Would any of the above like to post their thoughts on QUITO's chance ( 9.30Wolv ), under his welter burden; before the race, of course.
Personally, I think he looks nailed-on.

Re 2 shortest price favs
Beauchamp P has all the credentials ( In my view ) of the classic VDW good thing.
Lord Noellie has the profile of a likely winner, but soft ground would be a worry. Guest, any thoughts?

Luck to all

Johnd

What are your thoughts on Kootenay in BP's race

JohnD - I make the 2 shortest priced forecast favs from the 2 main meetings as Beauchamp Pilot (10/11) and Abundant (5/4).

Evaluating the races in question shows that the class/form horses in each race are Smirk and Feabhas. Therefore neither of the above forecast favs qualify for selection.

In the 2yo race using the speed/merit rating we can see that Abundant is top rated on 61 with Avoidance 2nd on 56 and Feahbas 3rd 53. There is only one race to go with Abundant who easily won first time up, but now goes up in class and distance against horses with better form in the book. Feahbas makes her first venture over the sea and Jim Bolger is not recently renowned for winning races at Newmarket, but she is respected. Of course James Fanshawe and Barry Hills are no strangers to the winners enclosure at HQ so all in all the race represents a conflict. No bet to be made in my view.

The 2.30 is quickly narrowed to just 3 horses Beauchamp Pilot,Smirk and Kootenay with ability ratings as follows Smirk 238,Kootenay 225 and B.Pilot 179. Speed/Merit has B.Pilot top on 97 with Smirk 2nd 95 then Kootenay 3rd 82. Both BP and Smirk ran in the 9f listed event at the last meeting won by Golden Silca. BP had just won the Cambridgeshire and looked to have an outstanding chance to follow up but didn't. Smirk, who led before headed in the last furlong, had won a valuable race at Goodwood over a mile with a big weight, but then had a break before running 5th in the race just a short space behind BP. He has won and performed well at the track also and finsihed a clear 2nd in this race last season. Note the jockey change.

So in summary, the shortest forecast method shows no bets, but another approach shows Smirk as a bet.

I may post further findings later.

last night I asked the very same question (smirk)and you said out of form.

dont want to be petulent but is it the time difference?

sorry can see now.

Purely my opinion, but Kootenay has raced mainly against her own sex, and her form does not match that of the other 2 principals. Her ratings achieved thus far (R.Post), also support this view.

Guest
Thanks for your prompt and detailed reply. Two queries if I may; As I am sure you are aware, many good judges deemed BP unlucky in his last race, given that, the horse is still then improving, this surely must be a factor in their respective form. Secondly, Smirk has run to form, when fresh,in the past, so there must be a chance that lto is as good as he is.
Whatever happens, it is now going to be a very interesting race.
Good luck for today.

would running moss,boss doyle,batswing,whats up boys,be vdw selections?

Further to the earlier bet posted, others I consider worth backing today are Il Athou Weth 1.10, Asc 1.20 Dream With Me , Weth 3.20 Boss Doyle/Stromness and a 4 horse book in the Nmt 3.40 with Nashaab/Pablo/Captain venti and Travelling Band.


Punchestown 3.15

An interesting example of conflict in the numerical picture. Favourite Barrow Drive gave weight and a beating to Doesheknow before the former won in better class and the latter won a better class race than usual. Given the form it is most likely that Barrow Drive will again prove victorious, but it is going against the odds to ignore the numerical conflict so the race is one to leave.

Greg

I can see the case for Running Moss and What's Up Boys, but not for Batswing and Boss Doyle.

In any case I would not back any of them since thay all have no runs yet this season.

Cill Churnain and Pillaging Pict are two to look at I think.

Guest

Congratulations on the day. Unlucky not to have been four rather than the three.

Guest well done.


respect



Maggsy

I take my hat off to you, an excellent day, and Smirk was an unbelievable price. Keep posting, and we'll keep learning.

Barney,
Any chance of an answer to mine and Epi's questions about weight?

2 shortest price fav's method.
It is obvious from Guest's post that I have made some errors in selection of the qualifying races, no problem.
I will continue to post these from Monday, but am now in a quandary as to whether to recognise the ability ratings, as Guest suggests, or to stick to the format known at that time,( i.e. cons + ratings ). Some feedback from other members would be a help, as ( Guest and Chaz apart), I feel I am p****** in the wind at the moment!

JohnD/Maggsy/Fulham - Thanks once again for your kind posts.

Hopefully some points of interest were generated with the comments I made about both the horses I backed and just as importantly those I didn't.

A casual friend of mine declared his strong support for Abundent today at around evens and asked if I agreed. Without going into huge detail I pointed out just a couple of reasons I thought it far from a certainty, but obviously he wasn't really interested and was only prepared to see things his way. Fair enough, but his evidence for supporting the horse was the usual flimsy stuff that most punters use to back up their fancies day in day out.

The Charlie Hall chase showed a situation where the conditions were against the class/form horse Hussard Collonges and it was a race to leave. The winner had ratings support but had shown little in a sparse campaign last season.

Guest

I have some sympathy with your friend. Many of us have been there, and found it difficult to drop pre-conceptions and to stop being more influenced by, for example, the opinions of tv and press commentators than the facts in the Form Book as read from a VDW perspective.

JohnD has fairly commented that Smirk was an unbelievable price. In part that must surely have been because of the commentators' emphasis on how "unlucky" he had been lto, both immediately after that race and when discussing today's. In fact, of course, even if Beauchamp Pilot had won the race on the 19 October, Smirk would still have had a higher ability rating today, and the factors relating to him that you mentioned this morning would all still have applied. Blessed be the tv commentators!

weight has little to do with time

if there was a list of things that influence time then weight would be near the bottom.

more important, in my opinion, is the relative weights in comparison to the oposition.

for instance davoski and another mentioned horse today batswing

look for a common line between the two horses,

davoski running in g2 races, batswing running in listed races, a common denominator was exit swinger,

davoski had given weight to exit swinger finishing a distance behind it, batswing had met exit swinger when the former was in receipt of weight and was beaten by the same margin. OF course you must go into in form out of form but its only a guide. same as OR i had them 24lb different he has them 9.

when the two meet with comparative weight it should be obvious which will come out on top.

horses are fairly consistent really

now this is not strictly vdw, neither are speed ratings, but it can show along with other more relevant facts when a horse is outclassed.

now time

you can put a margin between the two horses in the race, I use lengths and a time difference between those two, but as to a time for the race its impossible.

Guest
Well done today,I thought Barrow Drive,was a stand out bet,yet could not be as confident with Smirk,anyway a good day all round.Thanks for your posts.

Fulham - Whilst watching the Morning Line over breakfast this morning, I almost fell off my chair when good old Tommo nearly made a useful remark concerning the race for which Beauchamp Pilot was odds on. He and Francome both agreed that BP was a certainty and then he said "hold on though, how many times have we seen these unlucky horses get beaten next time?" or words to that effect. But then he still went ahead and tipped it.

So I agree wholeheartedly that it can be tough going for most punters to change their stance and appear to go against the grain. The funny thing is though, as with most things in racing, going against the popular grain is just an illusion. It is in fact going in the right direction. Alas though not many will change direction. I'm glad though that most on this thread want to turn things around and beat the book and if my own posts have helped in any way I'll be doubly pleased.

JohnD - Regards some of VDWs other methods such as the chase method or the most popular selection/best speed one, I can tell you that the class/ability element was used in different manner though similiar. Otherwise there would be no need to have a different method as the basics are the same. For instance when VDW mentioned Desert Hero winning the Imperial Cup, he said that along with being one of the most popular selections and best on time he was a form horse, in fact the class/form horse. To go further he was the only form horse in the race, VDWs way.

As a further example take Misty Spirits race from the chase method. This horse was a form horse as was Shirlstar Buyabox, but the latter had a higher ability rating.

All the examples for both methods were one of the 3 most consistent from the entire field though.

Well done today.

Cheers,

Is this the same Guest that refused to give registration details for this board

Hats off to you.

Titus

Fulham - Further to your observations regarding the race Beauchamp Pilot was "unlucky" in, can I add that it's worth asking the question that if BP had actually won the race would he have even run yesterday?

Given that Smirk was 2nd last year in both races it is a fair bet that he was being aimed at going one better in yesterdays race. BP missed his chance at a penalty kick after winning his main target the Cambridgeshire.

Determined/Titus - Thanks for the support.

well done with pilaging pict!!!!