Boozer,

its not just favs that it affects, it can be half the field.


Rob,

VDW told us that to go into the live market in "one of the toughest games there is" is where the real action is. That might be nearer to vdw than many would have us believe.

Barney,
CS was not in Sir Frosty's race. I just thought the race was interesting because Sir Frosty was the c/f horse but Wonder Weasel had run in a better class race and beaten better horses LTO.
Would the bet have been different if the going was different? We are talking "capability" part of the formula.

Barney

None of the runners had won on the NH prior to 1978/9.

Thanks

Thanks again I would have missed all the fun if they were just numbers.

when I last looked Browzers had the following...

quote:

---

RACEFORM. FORM BOOK N/H 1970/71. [16209] S/B. Near fine. £6.00

RACEFORM. FORM BOOK N/H 1971/72. [6033] S/B. Near fine. £5.00

RACEFORM FORM BOOK N/H 1972/73. [5880] S/B. V.G. £5.00

RACEFORM FORM BOOK N/H 1972/73. [6034] S/B. Some marking to cover o/w V.G. Complete record of National Hunt Racing in Great Britain and Ireland June 19, 1972, to June 16, 1973. £4.00

RACEFORM FORM BOOK N/H 1972/73. [6165] S/B. Reference copy. £2.50

RACEFORM FORM BOOK N/H 1973/74. [5885] S/B. V.G. £5.00

RACEFORM FORM BOOK N/H 1973/74. [6166] S/B. Thumbed. £3.50

RACEFORM FORM BOOK N/H 1974/75. [5884] S/B. Reference copy. £3.50

---

although I see F has answered your specific q.

thanks anyway, for your trouble

Hi Fulham.

As the racing doesn't hold much interest for me today I will try and answer your last posting.

After you raised Canny Danny as an example of VDW's views on weight, I have had a good look at the race in question.

Is the weight the only reason one can find for not backing the horse at Sandown? If VDW had said he is unproven over the distance, I would have gone along with that. If he had said he was flat out to win his last race at Ascot over 3 miles and the chances are he wouldn't stay 3 miles 5f with 4lbs more, I would have excepted that. To just blame the weight is the easy way out. Interestingly, VDW said CD was a good bet to win his last race at Ascot when he carried 11st 8lbs, 15lbs higher than at Newbury.

After reading the book's I can see VDW really does see weight as a leveller. He is in good company as many believe it, I just don't. Another thing Guest lays at VDW door is this thinking that top non handicap form is different to handicap form. Time and time again horses that have good form in Group 1, 2, or 3 races come into handicaps and win. Very few can go the other way except possibly in sprints.

I have been reading an article by James Willoughby in the RFU. While I don't fully understand THE WORK DONE principal, he has the backing of a professor of physics. He ends this weeks article by saying. 'Off the same handicap mark a horse has a much better chance of winning a 0-70 with a big weight, than a 0-90 with a light weight.' Also it is much harder to offset the faster pace than higher weight.

Re Horus.

It can never be proved, but I wouldn't back Horus on any going softer than good whatever the weight (even 10st)

Be Lucky

Mtoto

Of course it is not possible to be sure but I suspect that, for VDW, as stated in the relevant article, weight was the issue which rendered the otherwise attractive Canny Danny a no bet in the race won by West Tip.

In both the races to which VDW referred in which Canny Danny figured, he was the clear class/form horse, well ahead of anything else in terms of the ability rating. But apart from one horse (running from out of the handicap) Canny Danny wasn't giving huge weight to his rivals in the 15/12/84 race, and was in receipt of a couple of pounds from the forecast 2nd fav. In the 5/1/85 race, Canny Danny was giving over a stone to the forecast 2nd fav, and 24lb to the forecast 3rd fav. and eventual winner.

The result of the 5/1/85 race suggests that weight probably was the decisive factor. West Tip (10.1) and Canny Danny (11.11) finishing 12l clear of the 3rd, the former prevailing by 1l despite Canny Danny "running on".

I'm not quite clear what point you are raising re handicap/non handicap form. It is clear from a number of examples that VDW took both into account, whichever type of race he was considering. How he balanced them is more problematic, and in this regard one would wish that he had given more commentary on the race won by Love from Verona.

What do you all think about 1st runs in h'cap hurdles from Nov hdle company.

I am thinking specifically of DERIVATIVE in the 12.50 at Haydock who has run ok in 2 nov hdles this season and now goes into a h'cap off 115 with 10-3.

BERNARDON has the best form imo from 09/06/02. but at 1st glance Mister McGoldrick looks class / form. Just wondering also if OCTOBER MIST is in there with 11-12 to ensure that COLOURFUL LIFE runs with 10-0.

JIB,

Sorry but I don't own a scanner, if I did I would willing send you a copy. It would take me weeks to type the whole thing out. Perhaps some kind soul with a scanner could help.

I would love to see it on the board, it would make Mr e d's head spin. I have been looking at The Silver Lining, and do wonder about some of the rubbish that has been printed

'For instance is it merely a coincidence that 18 out of 21 handicaps where he
gave examples, the winner (his selection) carried the same, or less weight than
they carried in their KEY race, the KEY race being the form line you are
working off, normally from one of the last three runs'.

The author fails to highlight which races he is talking about. I think VDW gave far more examples of handicaps. I can find a lot more than 3 examples of the selection carrying more weight. They range from 7 furlongs, to 3 mile chases. Another passage by the same author

' Note also how many handicap races are won by horses that win only a
moderate race, and today are raised in class and thus set to carry pounds less
in weight, and up against horses that have won in superior company, but
which are now set to carry pounds more. So many times one of the inferior
class horses wins in this situation. In fact, it is common knowledge and well
documented that 66 per cent of races are won by horses carrying less weight
than their previous'.

How does this sit with VDW's thinking? and a stat that is very easy to disprove

' A winning horse is often sent up in class next time out, frequently over a longer distance, and those following winners last time out should treat these with caution.
You will find that a large percentage of handicap winners have been raced above their ability before being dropped in class to collect. Horses which show form and then are dropped well in class, and perhaps over a shorter distance are worth looking at more than once.

WINNERS ARE OFTEN PUT IN WAY OVER THE TOP NEXT TIME, AND THEN DROPPED TO COLLECT AGAIN.'

As the author said food for thought!! I don't think so!!

Be Lucky

A good deal of extra weight can slow a good horse,but less weight can never make a 2nd rate horse faster.

on the gummy site there used to be a link to VDW and all thins VDW, in systems I think. I cannot find it anymore does anyone know the url. As I have been trawling this thread for about 4 hours and am more confused than when I started

The h`cap hurdle at a glance looks a very interesting race and in my opinion the race will turn out to be one to follow.

To your question on a novice`s first run in a h`cap.

I don`t have any records on this stat` but wish I had.

For what its worth I believe a rating of 115 for Derivative is one which will be exploited.

Whether tomorrow will be the day, I don`t know.

Hopefully more later.

Cheers,

its very cold here already and the cars are starting to ice up, I will be suprised if its not frozen off.

Ive just had the thermometer out and its currently -2 c.

There are no visible clouds in the sky and there isn't much wind to bring any.

Looks like winter greens tommorrow.

Thanks.

I`m now working on the fact the meeting will be off and I do not intend evaluating the card.

Cheers,

I had a good look at the Chief Cashier race at 1.35 today,the weight comparisons,with his previous runs are worth looking at.The placement of this horse,is well worth a close look,and he was out to win today,in his recent runs,what did he do in the last 2 furlongs?