Hi. As VDW says look at the better races. I said elsewhereto start 4.5k and above.

take best lto (pm * prize). that will give 100% then grade the runers. The tables also show dist andplacigs which is important. loo at what max showed me with averages.if best constistency best abilty and best form line (look for ** in table)then look at coments in running for last 2f.Rember that he was a dutchman too. 100% refers to class we must baklance class and form. I post up the expected winners and I will back all of them in the table if poss.

cut and paste the form into your tables. Vdw did not have a pc so must have spent hours on it. look at maxs post for a qick way to ghet yoiu started. this is vdw but wont suit those in a hurry.

vdw used his own ratigns also. I use pm*prize. His formila was right.

consistency = ratings
abilty= as vdw
capabilty=form factors (**) placed at dist etc and comments
probablity=forcast and sp lto and stats of previous winners eg 111 = 33%

hardwork=pc.


Click for Posts by Nessie

[This message was edited by Nessie on May 31, 2003 at 09:21 AM.]

Dr Fulham,

When you get the chance, go and have a look on the "Sires View" thread of yesterday and see what an utter twat your VDW mate made of himself.

There must be times when you think, "I can do better than this". Paradoxically I feel for you.

111
.

111,
Perhaps you could explain just why you think Barney's posts should have any relevence to Fulham?

Three Legs

growler ???


Your a bloody CLOWN,

Crock,

If Dr Fulham wants to know, I`ll tell him.

Determined,

Thankyou for reading my posts, unfortunately I can`t repay you the same compliment.

III

Thanks for your kind thought.

Im surprised at the lack of response is it because i have cracked it?

if any of you have a vdw sel for May let me compare it with the tables. If you don't then i think it is becase you dont realy want to discuss it so what is the point of the thread.

let us judge the sel by c.a.c.p.w. if you share then we can all be better off. if you keep it to yor self then what is the point.

bet i don't get any offers.

These are the horses i will be evaluating today,Coming from the races that vdw advised in Spell It All Out.

win 4.00 LEADERSHIP/IMOYA

pont 4.20 FAYR JAG,SEEL OF APPROVAL and LOYAL TYCOON

wor 4.00 FAVORED OPTION/LISLAUGHTAN ABBEY

irrespective of class and form these horse are the only ones to be considered in there respective races,In my opinion.

Nessie,Well done,It does appear that you have cracked it,
Myself and im sure 2 or 3 other members are stumped on how you get your % ?,
And could you tell me a Quick way to get the races to study,11 races today over 4.5k but i would guess there might only be 3 bets,
Ringmoor down was the highest on race value(3 runs) last week,How did it compare to the rest of the % ?
Bye for now Rab

quote:

---

Originally posted by Nessie:
Im surprised at the lack of response is it because i have cracked it?

---

Nessie Any thoughts on the 330 windsor today?

How do you deal with a horse like BONECRUSHER which hasn't a PM for its last 2 runs, but were deemed good enough to be given an improving OR by the OH?

Cheers IMP

I the Che would have had the day of today.Lol

Betting Forecast: 3/1 Prince Sorinieres, 100/30 Percy Parkeeper, 7/2 Favoured Option, 13/2 Khatani, 7/1 Die Fledermaus, 
8/1 Lislaughtin Abbey, 12/1 Flying Instructor, 25/1 Bruthuinne,  Wrens Island. 

WORCESTER, 01 Jun 2003, 4:40, Todays Tips £5 On fantastic-forecasts.com Handicap Chase (Class D) (5yo+,0-125),Winner £7,052.50,(2m7f110y)2m7½f GD-FM, 10 Runners Handicap

 Percy Parkeeper,,.......................................................Form 3-3-2  (8**)  sp lto 7/1  Av = 10.7k** , Ab = 5k  Score=5+6
 90%  130C 24f 2/4 10rs**  GS Str  8K    (16 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)    ***DOWN in class from 8K to 7.1k, BUT chk figures
 174%  111B 24f 3/25 6rs  Gd Per  18K    (37 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 65%  125D 24f 3/5 7rs  Gd Kem  6K    ( days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
   .................................. (100%)
 Favoured Option,,.......................................................Form 1-1-2  (4**)  sp lto 6/4F  Av = 8k** , Ab = 9.5k**   Score=5+7
 57%  132D 25f 2/3 5rs  GF Wcn  5K    (23 days)(g)     (Chk Dist PLACED **)    UP in class from 5K to 7.1k, BUT chk figures
 150%  132D 24f 1/5 5rs  GF Crl  13K    (43 days)(g)    ** DIST + WIN **
 69%  132E 25f 1/22 7rs  GF Her  6K    ( days)(g)      (Chk Dist  + WIN **)
   .................................. (84%)
 Prince Sorinieres,,.......................................................Form 1-2-3  (6**)  sp lto 85/40  Av = 8k** , Ab = 7k  Score=6+5
 100%  127C 25f 3/14 4rs  GF Lud  9K    (17 days)(g)     (Chk Dist placed ?)    ***DOWN in class from 9K to 7.1k  IMPROVING ***
 94%  135C 23f 2/½L 12rs  Gd Exe  8K    (32 days)      (Chk Dist PLACED **)
 82%  135D 24f 1/hd 5rs  Fm Tau  7K    ( days)    ** DIST + WIN **
   .................................. (84%)
 Flying Instructor,,.......................................................Form Pl-3-5  (18)  sp lto 20/1  Av = 7.3k** , Ab = 10k**   Score=5+2
 85%  122C 20f 5/27 12rs  Gd Wor  8K    (22 days)(c)   (UP in dist, lengths)    ***DOWN in class from 8K to 7.1k, BUT chk figures
 94%  154C 24f 3/4 7rs  Gd Ban  7K    (407 days)   (** DIST  PLACED **)
 0%  01C 21f Pl/17 4rs  Hy Utt  7K    ( days)   (UP in dist, lengths)
   .................................. (54%)  

Don't know about bonecrusher. VDw s own ratings may have the answer. Bonecrusher has a 35k consitency and 13.7k abilty so it fits on that score and its a good alrounder. Goblet of ire is top rated. No element of a gamle must creep in though.

As I said vdw takes ages to do.

Gummy has turned of the editng sorry about the untidy post.

Nessie,

I think the lack of response could be more to do with people don't quite know how to word a response.

You obviously have formulated a good set of ratings, but how much have they to do with VDW? They are based on class and form, so that is a good beginning.

The question I have to ask is, how many races did you rate in May? How many of the top rated won? I ask this understanding that top rated isn't everything, but also noting when VDW showed his ratings the selections were top rated in every case.

I have a rating method that is based on the Roushayd method. I have to admit that some of the selections would be hard to pin down as VDW selections. It does work and that is the only important thing. However I couldn't/wouldn't put up a few results and say because it works I have cracked VDW.

I wish you well with your ratings, as do most of the serious VDW contributors, I'm sure. I can't except anything that takes an average of anything to do with racing, that would be the stumbling point for me with it. (as is the ability rating used by many)

Can I ask have you ever tried using s/f instead of Postmark? I really do find his figures appear to be inflated when coming from the better races.

Be Lucky

Hi all,
Nessie you probably don't get many replies because you are the only one prepared to put on show how you arrive at your final selection before the race is run.
I know a lot of people frown on this and there has been many a debate on putting up races on this page before they are run.
You obviously have your own way of doing things and are not frightened of putting your head on the block.
As for myself I appreciate the help you give when asked and the new slant you put on the method.
I think somewhere VDW said if your selection does not add up to 95% then ask why, and using your method gives a firm idea of the percentage factor.
Keep up the good work.
See you soon, Mike.

Hello all
Did anybody consider Fayr jag a roushayd bet today.

Your filter did well today

The flat selections were a piece of cake to sort

a Permed treble would have yeilded a tidy sum

Mtoto VDW is not about ratings but balancing class and form. he had his own ratings that
he wanted a 10k cheqe for.
I use my ratings because PM is I think the best rating and is given for all experenced runners speed figs work best when there are greater fig than the handicap mark.
Horses run faster in better grade races they also carry the weight better.
The ratings will be inflated because the prize is bigger.

I have rated all races in may and I want to compare a vdw selection with my vdw selection but
I think that guys want just to keep the thread going and not get the answers.
If you have the answer then you dont have a thread.
You cannot argue with c.a.c.p.w the only bit we dont no is vdw ratings but mine are prety good
and you can check every bit of it. I think I have cracked it because they fit c.a.c.p.w
and I put them up before racing and they win esp if you dutch them.

I looked at his staking 1,2,3, points. if you dtch at 3/1 min given evens return
then this workes v.well.

Investor well done did you consider them as winners before the race?

Nessie
I don't understand what you mean,Did i consider them winners before the race.

sorry. I ment when you considered them
as vdw did in spells it out
did you then think that they were winners.

i cant see how you mention Lislaughtin Abbey but do not mention Prince Soriniere. Would you be prepared to explain HOW Abbey was good enough to be considered

Nessie
It was the races he suggested in S.I.A.O not the horses mate,I.e race with most money form Principal meeting,Consider next highest and then the highest from other meetings.Sometimes this will differ dependent on if there is anything to be found in the other higher class races.Prince sornierres is not at present in form,Why not look back over the horses iv'e put up for evaluation and see if there are any common demoninators.