Gilly
Just for info i posted up horses for evaluation in there respective races,If you can be bothered to find it you will see that Barking Mad (lll) was included on this list.You might also take a look at the newton abbot race and see which horses finished 1st 2nd and 3rd,It doesn't happen all the time though


P.s I like dutching

Then get on a barge, head east and keep goin.

Ps Thanks for todays tip mate.

111
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lll
3,334

Crock,
Will Do. Thanks very much for the offer.

Graham

Investor,

This is the problem with this thread. Do you not think that Barking Mad appeared towards the top of most people’s short lists for that race? Do you think that VDW was the only method that saw the Barking Mad as a likely winner?

And, are you trying now to tell me that you dutched the Newton Abbot race?

Have you ever made your bets, singles, dutches, or whatever, public on this board?

Jimmy - I think I can just about survive, thanks for the concern.

Re Welsh Diva - Only a possible and nowhere near a bet. As expected Monturani put in a much better display not in the race the markets suggested on the surface of things though.

Mtoto - I am intending to back off again, but could I leave you with this thought on the Roushayd approach. Why do you think, given your own take on it, that in the Northern Dancer at Epsom, VDW highlighted Billet as the most probable winner above Island Set? Billet was coming from class 48 with a SF of 46, but the topweight Island Set was coming from class 61 with a SF of 62.

Gilly,

Slow down, you`re talking to someone who`s served on the grey funnel line (Minesweepers)

Please type your posts a little more slowly.

No probs investor haven`t even sat down with them as yet my biggest problem is i enjoy this board so much i cant take myself away from you lot for any length of time to study anything lol.

Guest,

I`m sorry to be repetitive, (but what can I say) cherio once again.

You are idolised, I`m demonised, but as Dame Vera sang, we`ll meet again............

111

How many times is that he has promised to go. When he came back this time he said it was only for the weekend and here we are monday night and he is still here!!
In some ways I wish he would stay, the comments between him and his protege investor are a great laugh, little and large haven't got a look in, little brains and large ego.

Gilly
Don't be silly (i'm a poet and i didn't know it)of course i didn't dutch the n/a race,I was just giving you an insight into how i conduct most of my betting,I have put horses up in the past not many,Maybe you can seek them out and tell me how many won.It matters not my frined i make it pay and that's all that matters to me,Ive' had an enjoyable day both on and off the thread but the caffrey's is kicking in now so i will wish you goodnight sleep tight and don't let the bugs bite LOL.

investor,

How right you are for a change, it dosn't happen all the time. Another strange thing though, you put up, usually 3 or 4 horses per race and after the event you usually tell us the one you bet was the winner, unless that is none of them win in which case you tell us you didn't bet. If you are so good why put up 3 or 4? why not just put up the winner?

Gilly,

Don't waste your time doing as heid the ba' suggests. I have lost track of the times he starts a thread and puts up selections only to quit it after a few days because he is falling flat on his face. Funny thing is after he stops posting his selections before the off they all start winning again.

Who do you believe on here you all sound so convincing?, anyway guest said earlier,
As expected monturani put in a much better display not in the race the markets suggested on the surface of things though?.
his six races before tonight were as follows

20k 9/2 6th.
175k 8/1 9th.
14k 11/8f 1st.
15k 15/8 2nd fav 1st.
4k 11/10f 2nd.
4k 12/1 3rd.

He was 2nd in tonights f/c as well finished 2nd where does this fit in with guests comments above anyone? i only ask as im a bit baffled by it.

Guest,

Sorry but I don't understand. In Systematic Betting it shows Island Set coming out of a 39 class race. I haven't these form books but are you saying Island Set last ran in a 61 class race scoring a s/f of 62? That s/f also being an improvement on recent figures?

With the Roushayd method I'm only looking at the last race the horse ran in. That gives you the class, and the form is expressed by the s/f. The horse must be dropping in class, or be running against horses that are not.

I would have thought a rise that big would have eliminated all the contenders though.

If Guest is not around could anyone with the form books tell me if the information in S Betting is wrong?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

You shouldn`t be posting on here as if nothing had happened. Your attention is required elsewhere. Finish what you started.

111
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PS. Until you do, I`ll be here.

Investor. you said that the factor you and me are talking about is sometimes there in its last 3 runs and sometimnes not. and you have to look at the horses whole career.

so if that is the case how do you do that from the racing post paper.

ps why do you wind people up by kep saying
I got the winner
but after the race? we cn all put up 4 horses in a 10 runner.

i really want to crack this. please give me a rea lclue.

thanks.

SADDLERS QUEST 8.30 WINDSOR

This horse won easily at 14-1.

Ok I know VDW theories dont apparently apply to F claiming races.

Also I shall say right now that even though I looked at its speed figs and Official rating(s) I dropped it because A) its form (good form) was old and B) I looked through 2 years draw results at Windsor 11.5 furlong last night and saw that low draw had won it nearly every time.
(The horse was drawn high).

Instead I went for RAAYBAN. I was wrong, very wrong, cos 14-1 winners do not come easy.

The reason it should have been a bet was because of its massive OR and massive speed figs And class (had run in a Derby trial at Lingfield).

Would anyone of you like to look at this horses figs and give me an opinion, leaving aside for the minute that it was a class F?
I feel that our pal VDW might have thought it was a certainty.
Cheers
Swish

Whilst I wait for any replies, a thought has occured to me.

Flat claiming races are similar to Hunter chases because both, seemingly, are races for either "has been" horses, old horses, or horses with old form
Cheers
swish

Mtoto

Immediately prior to the 1988 Northern Dancer (3 June 1988), Billet won a class 48 handicap (on 14 May 1988) off 9.1, returning a sf adjusted to 9st of 46. In his last race before the ND, Island Set ran second (neck) in a class 39 handicap (on 18 May 1988) off 9.13, returning a sf adjusted to 9st of 62. Prior to those races, Billet's last adjusted sf was 38, Island Set's 73.


Swish

Leaving to one side the class of the 8.30 at Windsor last night, I don't think VDW would have seen Saddler's Quest as a "certainty", or even a possible bet.

It is the case that SQ had by far the highest ability rating (150). But even for a class 37 it is doubtful if, on its last run at class 69, beaten 24l, on a weight-for-age basis at level weights with the winner, it could be regarded as a form horse. (Though, in truth, few in the race could be so regarded.). But the clincher for me was that the horse had not run on the Flat since November 2001, and there is clear evidence in VDW's examples that that alone would have been sufficient for him to have left the horse to one side.

Had Saddler's Quest shown anything in the selling hurdle he contested on 13 May 2003, it is possible that VDW might have thought more kindly about his chances last night (there are relatively few instances of horses running under both codes in VDW's examples, and I would not be dogmatic on the point). But it is hard to believe that "held up and behind, headway 6th, mistake 7th, soon weakened", beaten 38l carrying l6lb less than the winner in a class 24 would have aroused much interest.

The result does, however, point up the relevance of the much criticised ability rating. Horses well clear on that measure, without good current form, do win from time to time at long prices - Mine, on his last run, was an instance. But I'd be doubtful if this happens often enough to be the basis for a successful betting strategy.

[This message was edited by Fulham on June 10, 2003 at 06:44 AM.]