The Great Mistake

Investor,

If you think the horses won or lost because of their form figs that is your great mistake.

Most of those horses finished where they did because they were part of long planned tactical approaches that their connections had decided upon seveal weeks before.

First you look out your target, then you set about achieving it.

How do you think you can possibly hope to 'see' all that trainers thought and work when you open your daily paper at that days' racing page?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

I'm probably going to get a right ear holing of T.C for this but i want to try and show an example of a good class form horse

BAROLO cons 101 top 3 consistency 2nd highest race class lto

Last 3 runs
20th may good class 128 1 mile 6 class B won 7/1

28th june newcastle class 1044 2m class b finished 17th at 16/1 then what happens next

14th july leopardstowm class 229 1 mile 6 listed won 4/1

The horse was clearly put in way over it's head at newcastle and the market price echoed that and the distancewas wrong.So the trainer returns the horse to 1 mile 6 at leopardstown wher he duly obliges so what does mr harris do next he drops the horse into a 92 class c race wher he was again a good proposition.Also what needs to be taken into consideration is barolo has run 4 times over this trip prior to the race in questin and has entered the winners enclosure 3 times he has ran 8 times on g/f won 3 and been placed in another was he capable,Of course he was incidently the wins at 1 mile 6 have been in classes 105, 128 and 229.I apologise if this is seen as aftertiming but the evidence was there well before the off.

OK - but at least its "Constructive" Aftertiming - and from some one who has at least "Put a few up" recently.

Oh dear me.Have a look at Nordwind/Hasaiyda.Nordwind went down by a length to Hasaiyda lto giving the horse 2lb today receieving 1lb that's a 3lb swing for a length cons figures 112 and the class form horse Bollocks

Investor,

You have screwed this idea into your head in such a way so that it is almost impossible for you to look at it from another angle.

Do you believe that the next horse that has the form figs -10 is going to win at 4/1? Obviously you do not!

A horses' form figs only represent evidence of what the trainer has been upto. However trainers plans are as diverse as humanity itself and only rarely do we get a glimpse of his knickers.

Form figs are purely co-incidental as to a horses' future performances.

TCs and Garstonfs' recent research amply demonstrates the CRs unreliability and if you can understand the concept of co-incidental you will realise why.

Jib
With all due respect my friend,I have poored my way through enough form books and examples to form an opinion.And the way i interpret the methods,Consistent horses win races,Past and present.You obviously know your stuff john but we all approach matters in a different way.I have chosen to follow the way that i have seen it shown with the examples and what these show up in book.You like your sire stats and judging by your results you do very well,You may think it's madness to carry on the way i do but if you had the form books and were abelook at the examples in depth.I'm certain you would change your opinion,Or it would certainly enable you to see a different side to vdw.You do well doing it your way and i don't do so bad following the methods my way.Nither of us is hitting an 80% s/r so it doesn't always run smooth for you or me in whatever approach we use.

I didn't find any betbetter ratings today, but here's Masseys:

3:00 Doncaster 8 Sep Gr2 Stks 3yo+ 1m 6f+ 10 Run

10 TARAKALA 1 737 719
9 SELEBELA 1112232 715 699 (20)
1 ASTROCHARM 1751211 518 725 684
4 BOWSTRING 0-1223 692 647
6 MAZUNA 06-1232 671 639
7 MODESTA 41286 720 638
5 LIGHT OF MORN 2314 677 631
2 DESERT ROYALTY 2124973 613 432 700 615
3 ECHOES IN ETERNITY 3811-45 726 593
8 OPERA COMIQUE 6 565 515

Not particularly good this race!
Winner 2nd from bottom.

How does this compare with VDW? Any figures anyone?

Here are the finishing positions and prices of the top six in the betting:

1st Echoes of Eternity 5/1

3rd Bowstring 10/1

4th Tarakala 5/2f unplaced

6th Light of Morn 14/1

7th Astrocharm 7/2

10th Selebela 11/2 (last).

Seanrua
echoes of Eternity was the highest ability rated horse in the field and was coming out of the highest race class lto in group 1 company over 1 mile and 2 today over 1 mile 6 i couldn't back it,But i saw it as a possible winner or danger which i put my post earlier.

Seanrua
You have put the prices up for the race,It may be worth noting (i said this to jib yesterday) that in races of class c and above or races that vdw told us to evaluate.A big percentage will be in the first 4 in the live market,More often than not the first 3.Some have argued with me over this point but i have looked at most of the horses mentioned in the books and well over 70% of them fell into this category.

Wasn't more important - the fact that Godolphin excel at at Doncaster - eg 3yo 67% - 4yo 58% - and the fact that their 2 yos are "flying" -

"Gave a Pointer" - to todays results !!Not that I thought that the results - would be "That Good" !!

Normaly I steer clear of them in Handicaps.

big mistake corrected,

Thank goodness, a boy could get into trouble.

The mean finishing position in a 10 runner field is 5.5, the mean for the first 6 in the betting given above was 5.1, first 4 in the betting 5.5.

epi - please rephrase that -"ich verstehe nichts" !!!

The sum of finishing positions is 55, divided by 10 is 5.5, the sum of finishing position of the first six was 31, etc. In a word, that the winner was in the top six means nothing, the chance of it being so was in any case 60%.

wot I meant wos -

麿 勿れ 了知



Or do you mean as JIB sed - It is - Co-Incidence !!

60% is a big chance, nobody should need VDW to tell them that the winner will probably come from the first 6 in the betting in a 10 horse race, it's no more useful to know than that the winner will definitely be in the first 10 in the betting. One time Statajack put up a selection that won, some posters were surprised as it was the outsider in a field of 6, Statajack replied "it was the 6th favourite", the idea of the first six in the betting is simplistic and pretty silly.

Ah - But -

The figures show that there is a 50 (maybe 60) % chance that the winner will come from the 1st 3 "most consistent" in that group !- ie a 50% of a 60% chance - and then -

you have 1 chance in 3 of selecting - the "Right One" - of that final Group !!!



Great -innit !!



No wonder that - "Dutching" - featured so heavily in his later writings !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

TC,

I think you would find, though better men than you havn't, if you researched his examples, that VDW only proposed these scenarios as people failed to grasp the intent, contained, in some detail, in his earlier postings and examples.