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Member
Posted
This thread is about VDW, not alternative strategies. The judgement is based also on yesterday's debate about betting on unproven horses and Guest's one-liner is taken in conjunction with Fulham's remarks about Guest's betting behaviour. In my opinion I have made more positive contributions to this thread than anyone else, if you cant see that unlucky.
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Epiglotis
now you are on a wind up more positive contributions than anyone else,That deserves a massive LOL.And incidently wild spice unseated quite early on in the race,So don't try and make excuses for being prem.
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Fulham>
Posted
Epiglotis

I didn't see the Wild Spice race, but the comment on the RP site says "prominent, close 3rd when fell 8th [of 20]".

Falling like that, early in a race while still clearly in contention and with no suggestion of being under pressure, is merely one of those things that happen from time to time if (as most of us do) one bets over the jumps. For future in-formness assessment purposes the run would be ignored from a VDW perspective, much like VDW examples such as Beat the Retreat.

Your comment that you couldn't see "any reason to think that Wild Spice was even slightly likely to win that race" tells us all we need to know about your form reading capability.
 
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Posted
Gilly
Anybody can criticise but to do that they must have at least a little bit of knowledge of what they are being critical about,Epiglotis has no knowledge of vdw at all,I suggest you go through 555 pages before you pass comment. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    Rob N,
    Whether Wild Spice was a VDW selection or not isnt really all that important. What I think members should muse about is the fact that Guest named it.
    Guests' judgement is held by certain quarters in the same manner that Ismailian Muslims regard the Aga Khan. So if he names a horse for whatever reason it should be replete with evidence of his sagacity.
    The first problem with Wild Spice before it was analysed under any code of methodology was the likely poor value the price would be because of its jockey. After that one would have hoped that the reasons he chose it didnt appear so speculative
    To be honest if Wild Spice is an example of the type of horse he supports (for whatever reasons) then there will be many members, religiously inclined or not, who will be thinking: God help us!
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Nessie
I will keep putting horses up for evaluation Not every day though, that is the only way i can help you'll get there eventually. Wink
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
I`ve just spent an enjoyable 20 minutes catching up here, at times it`s threatened to be entertaining. It`s fairly obvious there`s a few bobs worth of education with this threads posters.

Now, I couldn`t give a rats arse about any missing bloody link or anything dutch for that matter but what does puzzle me is why on earth would anybody take any notice of Investor much less encourage him?
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Jib
You really haven't got the slightest clue,I bet Guest has a really good laugh when he sees posts such as the one's you put up.
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
lll
3,309 Razz
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Investor
Are you suggesting that Wild Spice was the correct decision? Why do these correct bets keep losing?
 
Posts: 3443 | Registered: October 02, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Determined.
I have checked 35 VDW selections from 18/2/78 to 2/5/81 (all the form books I have) for winning horses carrying more weight LTO with a rise in class for its present race.
from 5 chases 2 as above.
from 4 Hcp ch 1 as above.
from 2 hdl 0 as above.
from 4 Hcp hdl 1 as above.
from 6 flat 3 as above.
from 13 Hcp flat 0 as above.
Hope this is some help.
regards Bumper.
 
Posts: 97 | Registered: February 18, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of Gilly
Posted
Investor,

You are making presumptions.

You don’t know if I have or haven’t already gone through the whole of this thread. My days are now spent either watching racing, studying racing, or reading about racing. I have a lot of time on my hands.

Secondly, what makes you think that I don’t know more than you or anyone else on this thread about VDW, and having the knowledge, know its failings?
 
Posts: 136 | Registered: May 23, 2003Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Epiglotis
Why not work it out for yourself,Afterall you must be one of them contributors who have learnt the methods through a crystal ball.
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
So often on this thread I see the great and the good being lectured too by two cells, do you think perhaps they recently doubled?
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Gilly
of course i am being presumptious,Enlighten me or are you just joining in with the neg heads.I will continue to give you a smiley for the time being. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Growler
Member
Picture of three legs
Posted
Never in the field of internet forums,
has one man been so derided,
by so many and so often,
without catching on.
 
Posts: 4123 | Registered: October 11, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
lll
3,310 Big Grin
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
lll
slow down for christ's sake 3,311 Wink
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
<Fulham>
Posted
Investor

re the 8.15 Pontefract, I agree that at first sight Welsh Diva looks to have a very good chance, a chance in no way diminished by Aldora's performance on Friday. And she did beat Monturani by a fair distance less than three weeks ago, with the same weight differential as today.

A factor that would trouble me, though, was that that race was Welsh Diva'a third run of the season and she could reasonably be assumed to be at peak fitness. By contrast, Monturani was having her first run for nearly a year, and can reasonably be expected to have come on more for the run than Welsh Diva. It is also of interest that (just like on their last run), relative to Monturani, Welsh Diva is 7lb worse off than on handicap terms.

In sum, I share Guest's view that, while Welsh Diva has a decent chance, things are not clear-cut. While she is the most likely winner, should Monturani reverse placings I wouldn't fall off my chair in surprise.

Bearing in mind that there are other horses than cannot be ignored, at the forecast 11/4 Welsh Diva holds no attraction for me.

Good luck if you bet.


III

Did you hear Michael Howard's response to the Chancellor's statement on the Euro? As complete and accomplished a demolition job on a government statement as I've heard. He (Howard) always struck me as a bit of a prat when Home Secretary (but there again, on reflection almost all Home Secretaries, our current one included, seem prat-like - perhaps it's an almost inevitable consequence of the difficulties of the portfolio).
 
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Member
Posted
Way too early to say in the race, but given the result it looks like an opportunity missed for Wild Spice. Anyone who has read the books thoroughly should know that VDW gave a slightly different method for chases which involved the most valuable handicap and non handicap chases for the day. Wild Spice was the only qualifier along with being the class/form horse.

Just out of interest Epi, if Wild Spice had no chance, who was the horse for you in the race.

It might seem obvious to most, though blatantly not to some, that there is a big difference between unseating rider at half way and finishing the race down the field.

JIB - Tony McCoy is not a factor I place much emphasis on as a workman is only as good as his tools. I notice you place a lot of emphasis on breeding and stats, but all that is useless unless the horse has the class and form to back the stats up. The winners that don't have these factors readily identifiable beforehand are usually surprises to all concerned. A jockeys strike rate or a trainers for that matter is of little use unless set aside the horses involved and the races they ran in and the class they ran in, etc,etc. That concept is to my mind both simple and logical.
 
Posts: 748 | Registered: February 18, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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