Barney
First step
Pick the right race where the winner is going to come from the first 2
second
Back the right one
Doesnt sound too bad an Idea

A bit of intelligent study on said races and winners could be a profitable excersise

Investor,

same as when it lost next time and same as when Rakti lost. Of course vdw highlighted this problem.

"you will of course miss some winners............."

Boozer,

thats where it will fall apart.

Boozer
In the Narrow the field to gain Winning stip vdw says "If we had the last 3 placings ofe respective horses in the betting forecast together,We have a numerical picture.this can be very illuminating and show, Subject to other considerations,The good betting propositions,A high perntage of winners come from the 3 lowest figure.leaving out sellers,and novice handicaps it often traps the winner in all races on the card"

Have you ever really really looked at what he is trying to impart,A lot of vdw's writings have a double meaning.And this particular letter needs thinking about.The winner of the Park stakes that's just taken place at donny was one of the 3 lowest figures but not in the way that you will be thinking.

Investor

Double meanings??
I see by the examples in the books he gives no double meanings just a straight forward calculation of form figures

Boozer
Then may i suggest you read the books again,And then refer to the formbook and do a bit of playing about and you may see a different side to his meanings,Especially what he was referring to in that particular letter.That is the problem with vdw and people who have read his writings they can't see the double meaning,It is there mate but thas to be sussed out with the form books.

"Double meanings!"

"find the right race and back the winner!"

"you will of course miss some winners!"

This thread is taking a nosedive in quality.

Jib
I don't think the thread is taking a nose dive in quality.I have at least tried to give some pre race thoughts but there has been nothing solid,I have mentioned horse not from yesteryear but today,Have a look at them and if what i am trying to get across is seen then i will gladly opinion on it.I'm not here to cloud the waters,Believe it or not i am trng to help,But it is my interpretation through looking at the writings and the form books.Why don't you start the ball rolling.Oh one other thing john.If you give me your address by e.mail i will gladly send you the books for nothing i have done what i needed to do with them.And then i will feed you the form bs if you wish,I paid 143 quid for 26 of them.But would be prepared to send them to you one at a time or whatever.The reason i am prepared to do this is because i know you would change your opinion about vdw.And then you could tell all on here what you have seen,Because i can't do that.That is my offer it's up to you mate.

Result 2.25 Don:

1st Millenary 13/2 deadheat with
1st Kasthari 11/1
3rd Dancing Bay 9/2

Words to eat:
"Kasthari looks well out of it"
"Millenary could be short of stamina? Why should he reverse the placings?"

Words to be pleased with:
How about a book with Millenary 13/2 and Dancing Bay 9/2

It is nice to post up a winner for a change!

BlackCat

Investor,

Thank you for your kind offer, but it would be a wasted gesture as I am too set in my ways to be able to derive any benefit from the books.

On the contrary being the occasional rotten sod that I am I might end up using the books to find quotes to highlight the inconsistencies that are frequently spouted by fellow members who seem to regard the books in the same way a rabbi regards the Torah.

I was just temporarilly concerned about the standard of debate as everyone seemed to be thinking that the Consistency rating was the bandwagon to El Dorado. However as the Donkey Register has just thrown up Millenary I am now in a much better humour.

Jib
Well the offer still stands,If you change your mind let me know.

Millenary had every right to be in the winners enclosure so well done to you

One other thing mate,if you don't take my offer up as you say you are to set in your ways,Then at least try and be a bit more tolerent of those that have put in the work,And tried to de cipher what is to all tense and purposes the biggest f.....g jigsaw your likely to come accross.it really is a far better method than you give it credit for.

BC,

Kasthari looked well out of it on a form basis but if the horse was yours wouldnt you have had a conversation with the trainer reminding him that it was time for a bit of silverware?

The price was v short for a horse whose previous wins were only two class E Nov Hdls.

This idea of trainer intent versus the form book is interesting and hints at the possibility of another VDW contradiction. If one were to consider F and G class races with the desperate equine dregs seeking an elusive win I doubt that grand schemes of the trainers' would come into it, perhaps that's the medium in which the ideas can really be tested, in a vacuum so to speak.

Epi
trainers work in weird and wonderful ways Barolo is a good example of that.But there is a quote by vdw that goes along the lines of " i jugde horse flesh on what it has achieved in public and by no other means".He also says "if you want to know where the bus is going ask the bus driver" so in a way i suppose he does contradict himself.But at the end of the day it is what the horse and done or not done on the track that confirms selection.

The VDW logic behind selecting in high class races is that all the horses will be trying, yet according to Johns d and iB, in such races most of the runners dont even know what the word "try" means.

Epi
In systematic betting,He gives 4 examples of possible winners All 4 of them were coming out of the top 3 race classes lto.Also in betting the vdw way Pegwell bay had the same trait.When they have shown form in these higher class events that is when they need supporting,There are other factors that have to add up as well.I mentioned a horse today Peter paul reubens It was coming out of class 123.There were about 5 other horses coming out of higher class,Including mac love which was coming out of group 1 company class 1305 top race class,Where was Millenary coming from 2nd top race class and had the ability rating as well.Just another thing to think about,But it doesn't end there.

Millenary won it's race before last yet didn't win it's last race despite a drop in class according to the VDW concept of class. The conspicuous difference between those races was that the second was over two furlongs further, as today's race was yet another two furlongs further and equivalent "class" to the previous race I would be interested in hearing how Millenary could have been a "VDW" selection, ie no element of a gamble.

Epi
i didn't back Millenary because of the very reasons you pointed out,I'm just trying to illustrate how it could be looked at in the eyes of vdw.The horse had a lot going for him.But i did see elements of doubt.Don't forget that Millenary has only run once before at this track over 1 mile 6.5 in class 2220 agianst faretter animals than this he has ran 9 times on g/f won twice and been placed in 3,So was he capable,You bet your cotton socks he was.I'm actually a lttle pissed off i didn't back him now,But going down to a 25/1 shot lto when 11/8 favourite put me right off.Thery'll be others.When evaluating a field you have to look at all the angles.Which was highlighted by Halmahera yesterday,Like i say it's a jigsaw puzzle but when all the pieces fit BINGO. (most of the time.)

investor,
fair play you have gone right up in my estimations for your recent posts,pre race thoughts the vdw way,good on yer
perhaps barmy could follow your lead.i doubt it though,barmy,why no selections or views pre race?
i do think though from a vdw viewpoint that like jibs donkey register and my list with wp,are the way forward.
does anybody else make lists?
what do they look for?

Investor: How often do all the pieces fit?

Greg: I dont see the necessity for a list as far as JiB's method goes (I haven't seen yours) as it can be done retrospectively as part of the analysis.