Oh one otherpoint before i go and have my daily game of Golf,Ther were 5 races that were worth considering if we take it has vdw put it in Spells it all out.All 5 of them were won by one of thes 3 in the live market.I don't know about fishing i prefer the odd birdie now and again.

EPI

A quick scan through last flat season see's 362 7 horse races
9 were won by the 7th in the betting

Boozer: Thanks, how many six horse races were won by the sixth?

Johnd

Thanks for you reply. I have re-read your post and can not read it any other way than I first interpreted. Nevertheless, I accept your comments that it was not intended that way.

I'd say that the term "vitriolic attack" is a tad too strong a term for my post, and I have to say also that my commments were not directed solely at yourself.

Keep smiling!

BlackCat

As suspected backing all the 3 most consistent in august produced a loss.
I only evaluated 12 races which produced 6 winners from the 3 most consistent.
There were 41 3 most consistent horses which included 2 non runners. The total S.P was 18.85/1.
So 18.85 + 6 + 2 – 41 = 14.15 points lost.

quote:

---

Originally posted by epiglotis:
Boozer: Thanks, how many six horse races were won by the sixth?

---

EPI
Last flat there were 295 6 horse races
7 races were won by the 6th in the actual betting

boozer,

how many 7 runner races or less were won by either of the first two in the betting at SP

Gawd!!
ang on

7 horse races

195 first 2

246 first 3

Races with number of runners <8 1040
won by first 2 in betting 653

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Boozer: That's about 2.5% in the 7 runner races and 2.3% in the 6, it doesn't suggest to me that there's any justification for a cut-off point at the first six in the betting(?)

Barney

5 bets were;

Sat,Jul 3 SAND 3,15 RAKTI 3/1 Lost
Sun,Jul 4 BRIG 3,00 RIVER NUREY 2.02/1 Lost
Tue,Jul 6 NEWM 2,55 ATTRACTION 1.86/1 Lost
Sat,Jul 10 YORK 4,25 STAR MEMBER 7/1 Lost
Sat,Jul 24 YORK 2,50 DISTANT CONNECTION 4.8/1 Lost

Odds are from betfair, so 3/1 is actually 2/1 etc.

Quite interesting today, as I find Investor has already posted some of the horses that I take to be VDW candidates!

The races are 150 and 225, Doncaster.

In the 150, I'm not sure that there is a "pure" VDW selection, as none seem to have good Course records.

Fong's Thong looks to be the one on prize money and recent form figures.

Tillerman, much older, isn't far behind on money won per race, but has poor recent form (9,5,6).

Like Investor, Firebreak would be the one for me, but being a contrary bugger, I can't understand why I haven't gone for Court Masterpiece, as Fallon must have a better day than yesterday, and Dettori may not manage another outstanding afternoon.
Nothing very VDW about that "reasoning" now, is there?

In the 225, trying to use my idea of VDW criteria, I cannot split Darasim and Millenary.
I've ruled out High Accolade bc of poor recent form (inc that of the stable). Not to be sneezed at on old ability, though, I suppose.

So, if a bet has to be made in these races (which it doesn't, of course), I'd back Firebreak ew.

Come on, VDWers: let's have a few names and ratings!
Even if you prove me to be a complete bollix, that's OK, bc I may learn something from the feedback.
That's why I'm here; I want to learn and IMPROVE.

Ok Fair enough EPI

While Im here

Hcps 2003
56 horses ran with the current season form figures 111
13 won

Boozer,

I was very interested in what you said yesterday about making a profit if we can regularly pick the right one from the top three (75%).

You seem to be good with figures; so may I ask, "does it depend on the odds of the winner?"

I mean the profit, not the result.

Second question: if we only manage 2 winners from 4 of these bets, would we be making a loss?
Personally, I can't get a 50% SR, but if I did, I'd want to make a profit!

Dunno much about this top end of the market, as the few quid I make at the game usually comes from outsiders. This means long losing runs, of course.
That's why I'm so interested in your ideas about those three market leaders.

I'm always ready to try a different approach.
And the missus reckons I fkin need to!

Garstonf,

A mutitude of problems there, some are easily solvable, some not so. experience will however prevent you from backing apparrent good things like Rakti and Attraction, both were only supportable on their debut's, on the york day look at the ascot race for a good one.

what is your e-mail

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Barney,

Boozer,

Much as i expected, 65% are two horse races, if we could just get the evaluation right between those two we would be in clover.

We have some betbetter ratings today:


09/09/2004 - Doncaster - 1.50,"GNER Park Stakes (Group 2) (Class A) (3yo+) (7f) (8 Runners)"
Firebreak,76
Fong's Thong,73
Pastoral Pursuits,66
Suggestive,61
Court Masterpiece,41
Tillerman,32
Naahy,24
Golden Nun,18


09/09/2004 - Doncaster - 2.25,"GNER Doncaster Cup (Group 2) (Class A) (3yo+) (2m 2f) (8 Runners)"
Millenary,73
Dancing Bay,54
Darasim,53
High Accolade,51
Corrib Eclipse,31
Romany Prince,21
Silver Gilt,21
Kasthari,18

Chepstow -

Looks like D.Holland has kept out of the way of the "Big Boys" today - in order to pick up a few easier points !

How about a SAW progresor bet on him ?

Hi Seanrua

I'll have a go at the 2.25

The numerical picture shows Millenary as the main suspect with Darasim, Dancing Bay and High Accolade as the others to note. (I typed up the whole table, opened up Racing Post in another window, and it deleted my “Reply” window. I’m not typing it again ‘cos it took ages, but it’s there to see using headings: Days; First 5?, CR, AR, PM, & TS)

Other Considerations

Distance will be a factor today.

Corrib Eclipse bt Dancing Bay over 2m6f in June. This is 4f less.

Dancing Bay has not won over today’s distance, but has shown stamina, btn by Corrib Eclipse over 2m6f. 2nd over 2m in a gp2, btg Millenary

Darasim won over 2m LTO, but what did he beat?

I would discount High Accolade immediately on today’s distance.

Kasthari looks well out of it. Romany Prince and Silver Gilt too.

Millenary could be short of stamina ? Btn by Dancing Bay LTO over 2m. His wins have all come over less. Why should he reverse the placings over more?

Summary

How about a book with Millenary 13/2 and Dancing Bay 9/2. Darasim at 2/1 is the obvious danger.

Good luck

BlackCat

Barney
What were your negatives re Attraction,When running and winning in ireland.

Seanrua

The results from picking the winner from the first 3 came from a survey I did a number of years ago
I think you would be going into a loss with 50%

Narrowing the field is a good way to operate

But you still have the same problem
It would not be feasible to back in every race every day

So similar problem as Barney
You still have to select from 3 and be correct more often than not, not as easy as it sounds
That is assuming you have chosen the right race in the first place
I.e a race where the winner does indeed come from the first 3 in the betting
Or in barneys case the first 2

It could be done I suppose using the Stop at a winner approach
You only need to be right once out of say 6 to make profit

Trouble is you lose heavily when you are wrong