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Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
garstonf -

wots this heresy ? - multiple betting ??? - how dare you introduce VDW suggestions of this nature into this "PURE" - Class/Form thread !!!

Even worse it suggests that the jockey/trainer combination - might be worth looking at !



also

-

A - "Very Rich" - VDW enthusiast - has suggested that 2yos which came 1st or 2nd on their 1st start were candidates for a bet !

(not on this forum) Big Grin
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
I think "Sun Tzu" - also - exploited -double agents !

Perhaps - Mr Pipe ?? Big Grin
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
but there again - perhaps VDW holds sway -

5,6. The Moral Law causes the people to be in complete
accord with their ruler, so that they will follow him
regardless of their lives, undismayed by any danger.

Wink

http://www.literature.org/authors/Sun-Tzu/suntzu.txt
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    Sun Tzu
    All warfare is based on deception.
    Sun tzu describing a trainers coup?:Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable;
    when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we
    are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away;
    when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
    Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war,
    cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays
    Place your horse with care: Thus the highest form of generalship is to
    balk the enemy's plans; the next best is to prevent
    the junction of the enemy's forces; the next in
    order is to attack the enemy's army in the field;
    and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities
    Thus we may know that there are five essentials
    for victory:
    (1) He will win who knows when to fight and when
    not to fight.
    (2) He will win who knows how to handle both superior
    and inferior forces.
    (3) He will win whose army is animated by the same
    spirit throughout all its ranks.
    (4) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take
    the enemy unprepared.
    (5) He will win who has military capacity and is
    not interfered with by the sovereign.
    Hence the saying: If you know the enemy
    and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a
    hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy,
    for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
    If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
    succumb in every battle.
    There is much much more for who cares to read it.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Yes, JIB, I'm reading thru it. I find it much clearer than the various takes on what VDW said or would have said.

Anyway, just to be completely insane, here are my picks for two races that only madmen and genii would bet in:

220 Newbury

Boogie St
Airwave
Majestic Missile, all EW.


310 Ayr

Fire Up the Band
Funfair Wane , both EW.

( JIB and TC,note, stable reopened after premature closure!)

Confidence level: 1%.
 
Posts: 1514 | Registered: April 23, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by BlackCat:
Newbury 2.20
_____________CR____AR_____PM_____TS
Pivitol Point____4*____246*___130*___111
The Tatling____7*____219*___129*___121*
Airwave_______17_____364*___127____122*

Won't type the rest. The numerical picture seems to indicate these three. Of the others in the top 6 in the f'cast, Magestic Missile looks out of it on the Numbers. Boogie Street has PM 130* and TS 120*, Var has CR of 8.

Has Pivitol Point now peaked. The Tatling looks set for this race, but I don't like betting on a reverse. Airwave is due a win. Has won at this level and over 5f in the past.

Airwave does not appear to be a "form" horse, but dig a little deeper... only 5L behind in a hot Gp 1 LTO. Before that only 2L behind 6th in another Gp 1.

At 13/2, I would take Airwave EW to make the frame tomorrow.

Good luck Razz

BlackCat


Bc
All of Airwave's form points to her being better on faster ground. Given the anticipated cut in the ground, Pivotal Point should prevail.

In the Ayr Gold Cup, Fantasy Believer would have been my idea of the winner, but has possibly the worst draw of all.
 
Posts: 1512 | Registered: August 20, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Mega Galactic
Member
Picture of Trojan
Posted
Seanrua,

In my continual search for the relevant original form books, I have come across "The VDW Library" on ebay which may be of interest to you - and save you a bit of silver.
 
Posts: 1068 | Registered: October 03, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
The solution to vdw,surely is not too difficult or is it?G.Hall solved it,F.Chester had almost reached the ultimate conclusion,so what is it,that causes the problem.

We can all measure consistency,ability, class,ratings etc.For me the one big difficulty is form.

What is form?vdw said,is it not that one performance is better than another.How is it presented in a numerical format?VDW said,there is enough to form a second numerical picture,so what is the best way of doing this.

People back winners everyday of the week,through one form or another,but are they winning consistently?Why not put an end to the nonsense once and for all,and have a reasoned debate,on what constitutes the various components we are looking for.

I would like to start by asking for some assistance on how form is best presented in a numerical format.I may be able to offer help on other aspects of the methodology.
 
Posts: 546 | Registered: February 09, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jedi Knight
Member
Picture of BlackCat
Posted
Hi Johnd

Yes, you could be right, although Airwave did win on Good and soft as a 2 y.o. I would accept that it wasn't in the quality of race faced today.

As I mentioned,I don't like backing reverses and The Tatling beat Airwave, and Pivitol Point beat The Tatling. On that alone, PP has to be up there. I just wonder if Airwaves last effort in better company may have brought her on.

If the price allowed, I would have suggested a book of the three principles. With PP forecast at 100/30, I thought that was perhaps too short for the 3. I guess it depends what reward you are willing to take for the risk. At 7/2 this morning, perhaps the book is the way to go after all.

And to ectoo, Celtic Mill is currently trading at 15's.

BlackCat

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,
 
Posts: 1086 | Registered: May 04, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jedi Knight
Member
Picture of BlackCat
Posted
The other thing to consider may be weight, especially if there is a cut in the ground. PP was 4 lbs better off than today when btg TT.

Airwave is 5 lbs better off today than when btn by TT.

I realise that to these big, strong beasts, a few pounds is neither here nor there. But the softer the ground the more these pounds tell I believe.

The more I think about it, the better the chances for Airwave today. But the more I think about it, the more I am inclined to back the three of them!

Which means that Celtic Mill is a cert! Wink


__________________________________________________________
"If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there".
 
Posts: 1086 | Registered: May 04, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jedi Knight
Member
Picture of BlackCat
Posted
Hi JIB

I will find the link you put up for "The Art of War" - thanks.

BlackCat


__________________________________________________________
"If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there".
 
Posts: 1086 | Registered: May 04, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
cheers Blackcat

I think Celtic Mill put in an improved performance particularly on speed figures last time, the only bar to success today is if he gets taken which is possible as others like to press the pace. In this sort of pace scenario in a lot of cases those that normally press the pace are reigned back by the jockey as they don't want to lose through getting involved in a pace battle particularly with an on pacer so dominant as Celtic Mill who has stamina to stay 6f.

cheers EC Wink
 
Posts: 748 | Registered: October 14, 2003Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Pipedreamer

Absolutely sound Idea
 
Posts: 690 | Registered: August 19, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
Anyone that thinks pace is not important to a horses chance would do well to study that race.

It made no difference what form figures any of the 3 horses that cut out the pace had previously, they had no chance after taking each other on in a suicidal pace dual.

Pace is a major decidng factor in races, previous form can be deemed irrelevant if a horse is "wasted" against the pace of the race.
 
Posts: 748 | Registered: October 14, 2003Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jedi Knight
Member
Picture of BlackCat
Posted
1st The Tatling
2nd Var
3rd Airwave

Smile


__________________________________________________________
"If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there".
 
Posts: 1086 | Registered: May 04, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jedi Knight
Member
Picture of BlackCat
Posted
Hi Pipedreamer

Good suggestion.

First, I think what G.Hall "solved", (i.e. the mysterious key) Mr. Van der Wheil spelt out anyway and that was 'where to look'.

In terms of a numerical format, this is what I use as column headings:

Days (since last run)
Last 3 positions
CR
AR
PM
TS
Value (of race) TTO (this time out)
Value (of race) LTO (last time out)
Distance TTO
Distance LTO
Weight TTO
Weight LTO
Going
Course
Jockey
Trainer

With Value & Distance – if they aren’t the same, I look at past form to see if it is proven.
With weight, in a H’cap, I don’t want it going up more than 12 lbs.

Going, Course, Jockey & Trainer just get a tick if they look OK/proven to me.

Please note that this just provides a numerical picture of the race. I would then take a look at the recent form of each. I think both the numerical picture combined with the form assessment are as important as each other, and I would not put up a selection based just on the numbers.

Hope this is helpful.

BlackCat

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,


__________________________________________________________
"If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there".
 
Posts: 1086 | Registered: May 04, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
    BC
    Do you use these columns to form a rating?
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
So - who thinks that following a Trainer is a waste of time ???

Again !!! Smile
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
What a record!

1st and 3rd

Now tell me that trainer form isnt the single most important aspect of racing!
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member
Posted
shouldn't we just put all these factors together and forget if the horse finished last or 1st last time? Wink
 
Posts: 748 | Registered: October 14, 2003Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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