some sound points raised there, as well as hindering acceleration i would also add that it affects a horses natural cruising speed.Most if not all horses who lose their jocky run to the front and stay there.They just run better with no one in the saddle ie - less weight.

Hi Barney,

The only book I've got specifically on racecourses is an Aerofilms guide called Racecourses.Edited by Donald Sommerville.Published in 95.ISBN 0-7110-2399-9.Don't know if its still available.Its got aerial shots of all the racecourses showing the starts and another photo for each course showing the location of the stands, paddocks ,parking etc.It,s OK but I couldn't say it was any more use to me than the line drawings you get in a lot of betting books however.

Barney.

It was not a rhetorical question. It was in answer to your comment 'any comments?' I was hoping you could cast a little light on the similarities between BL and K.

Re the weight, Do you still think the reason K was beaten was to much weight? It broke the course record with to much weight, while being beaten inches. For what it's worth I think it bounced, left it's best form at York. He improved his s/f by a big margin at York, it was a very hard race. He overcame a bad draw, was 'driven' in the last 2 furlongs, and only had 17 days to recover. I thought this was to much to expect from a horse that had been lightly raced (6 runs) in the last year. After the Epsom race where he was also 'driven' he was given a couple of months to get over it.

Why would you be on my e-mail list? I don't expect anyone to agree with me. I do think that after trying to explain how I work, that comments like OR and s/f are rubbish are uncalled for. As I say how do you judge class?

Bream.

As I explained in a posting, weight does not come into the equation at any time. After I have rated a race, I go into a detailed study of the top 4/5 horses in the race. If I think a horse is capable of winning, I then read everything I can find on that horse. If it is a filly against male horses, or has failed, because the trainer says it's to small to carry big weights. I will take that into consideration, off hand I can only think of a very few horses where this has happened.

Chaz.

I know vdw said every horse has a weight limit, I believe the limit is class, not weight. His statement that most winners come from the middle to bottom of the handicap doesn't hold true in today's racing. I put a line through any horse that is not within 10 points of the top OR. For me this works very well in the better class races, that is not to say there is not the odd exception to the filter.

Gummy.

I am sure that starting a new thread won't harm anything. Again thanks for keeping this excellent thread going. The thanks must also go to the contributors.

Be Lucky

guest
well done on coming out of your shell a bit
mtoto
never duck a question,well done
barney
get a grip
GIVE NOTICE WILL WIN!!!!!!!!!!!

Mtoto,

Thanks for your thoughts. Are you saying that you wouldn't pass an eye over a horses form that is 10 points adrift of the top OR, even if it was in the first few in the betting?

Chaz,

When I compile my ratings I don't look at a forecast, I try not even to look at the horses names. I don't use the betting forecast in any paper. I compile my own tissue. I will concede that before I bet I MAY glance at the forecast in the paper. If a horse is out of line with my tissue I will examine it. This may stop me taking it on, but would never make me back it just because someone else thinks it may win.

Be Lucky

mtoto,

k is a decent animal, do not get me wrong it was only the weight that stopped it being a bet for me.

re epsom it was an average performance form wise, the race at york,by my reckoning, was a very slight improvement over a stiffer track. i put this down to the ground being firmer/faster, the horse down in actual weight due to being upped in grade and the effect of the claimer reducing the alloted weight even further. on balance i thought he would be able to carry some extra weight given the going at goodwood and a return to an easier track but an actual 20 odd pounds more than last time was asking a bit much for me. the performance wasnt any better than york ,by my reckoning,or epsom for that matter. but he has now proved he can carry the weight.

bounce is going back up in class after a victory or a hard race that should have been won not coming down.
he did very well considering and has proved he is very consistent, it will be interesting to see where,against whome and under what conditions he is placed next time out.

this still does not get away from the fact that a horse who had been prepared by carring lots of weight put in a good performance relativly and was then placed to carry less weight actually won.

[This message was edited by Barney on July 31, 2002 at 11:58 PM.]

Barney,
The way I see "bounce" is just that a horse puts in a really top effort and next time out it runs badly, due to the extra effort expended in its "trying" race it takes a while to recover and if raced to soon will run poorly. Forgetting VDW or class or suchlike for a moment, a horse has run its heart out and is knackerered so will not run up to its full potential if asked to race too soon. Presumably this is what Mtoto means.
regards,

statajack.

i was refering to bounce vdw style.This phenomenon was highlighted last year in one of classified's very early races last season, that was disscussed at length at the time.a lot of people thought that that there was a numerical good thing in the race, but it was a false favourite due to "bounce", it had put in a very good performance at a decent leval and then had been dropped in class and won but on inspection the form was no where near the standard of its previous run and the horse had made tough work of it. It was then upped in class against a better horse at a short price.Anybody remember that??


k did not bounce it was a consistent performance.


another illusion exposed last night was wixoe express, a 2/5 shot that the commentators were saying after the race ooh!!! that was a bad performance.I thought he ran just as well as expected in comparison to the winner.The following race provided a winner whos form had been loosly hidden.Horses are fairly consistent its the prevailing conditions that APPEAR to make a performamce either better or worse.

[This message was edited by Barney on August 01, 2002 at 07:28 AM.]

Barney,
I didnt think K bounced either. I think thats what Mtoto was referring to though.
regards,

Barney,

I think Statajack has described the bounce very well. That is what I mean when I use the word. The example you gave (Classifieds race), for me was an illusion of form. Again I can't agree with you about K's York form, it was far better than anything he has ever achieved. In this race he improved his s/f by 15 points, and had a very hard race. After using my own s/f for 5 years I have found horses that improve by such a big margin take a long time 5/6 weeks to get over it. Some never do. He showed REAL class to get so close, I hope he doesn't pay for it.

I don't think vdw would agree about Wixoe Express's run, you may not consider it a bad run. I think vdw and most other's would have been very disappointed. I must admit I am becoming very intrigued about how you judge class and form.

However, I do agree that weight can effect acceleration, I just don't think many horses accelerate during a race. Most of the time the acceleration is another illusion, the leaders are stopping. For me the amount of horses that have real acceleration you could count on your fingers. Although one did run yesterday.

Be Lucky

John In Brasil,

Thanks for the pointer to your thread on weight which I don't recall seeing before.There are some interesting points made on there and I liked the point you made about the equine faeces.I'm trying to look at the issue of weight from the perspective that VDW might have used it.I think weight was important to him.Maybe not in a 1lb equals 1 length over 2 miles sort of way,but more of a test to see how a horse coped with the task it faced.Thats the lines I,m working on at the present moment anyway.

All the best everyone.

Bream, do you see the dangerous ground when people begin to equate saddle-weight with finishing distances? I think common sense dictates that the situation has to be more complicated than that. JIB.

greg,

good job bangalore didnt run he would have been third.

that about the ground is humbug.

guest,

thanks for the direction re WL his 2592 run the end of last season wasn't too bad either.

all
can anyone give me the ability figures for the five runners in the 1985 KG.

bream,

thanks for the info on the race courses. I was thinking of something a little more specific ie.where the slopes are and the cambers and distance from the bends etc.

Why don`t you have a month off work and walk all the courses !

JOKE .

hi determined,

within two years we'll be going to them every day and will know them off by heart.

Barney, Could you elaborate a bit on what you meant in "all that about ground is humbug."

I haven't come across a book like that you are looking for.Joking aside, Determined's suggestion is not that far wide of the mark if your really serious about getting to know racecourse characteristics.I've walked around every racecourse I,ve ever been to either before or after racing taking notes in the racecard as I went.It was my intention to walk round every flat racecourse in England and Scotland at one time but that seems unlikely now.Nothing you will read in a book compares to actually seeing it for yourself and drawing your own conclusions and it helps to fix it in your mind like no photograph or line drawing ever could.

bream,

i did not know that they would let you do that,
next time i will give it a try.

guest,

regarding WL in the 1985 KG,

i have been having a close look at 1391 in 1983 and it seem he went off the boil for a couple of years after that.Is this vdw's most patient roushayd?

If you were around at the time, i dont wish to appear cheeky, do you know of any reasons that would cause those circumstances specifically.

[This message was edited by Barney on August 01, 2002 at 10:42 PM.]