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JIB - I think you have been seriously misled on the success of 99% of punters in this country, especially those who hang around in bookmakers all day. Nothing has changed since you left, they all still lose and some heavily. So given that a random sample of my own bets on this thread clearly show I make it pay, where is the comparison?
Jimmy - On the one hand you think me mad to spend so much time on race analysis, though not as much as you may think these days, and the other you yourself spend a third of the day studying sports statistics. Surely then you must realise that having the info in front of you is one thing. Knowing how to use it successfully is another. You are both barking up the wrong tree anyway and effectively trying to convince me that the earth is flat. You are wasting your time guys! Mtoto - I'm sure I have commented on this before, but to reiterate, the Epsom race was of much higher class where Roushayd carried 9-9 and improved his speed figure. His previous races both showed form relative to the opposition also. Investor - A possible winner sure, but there are doubts along with flies in the ointment, one of which maybe Monturani from the Goodwood event. |
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Forum Manager Member  |
hi. me again.
epi. I still dont no whta holistic means LOL ok. investor the one tha tfits with me is 345. Dutching as many as I can LOL NEWTON ABBOT, 09 Jun 2003, 3:45, Newton Abbot Racecourse For Parties Novices' Hurdle (Class C) (4yo+),Winner £6,133.49,2m1f GD-SFT, 10 Runners Wait For The Will,,.......................................................Form 3-5-1 (9**) sp lto 7/2 ln 9* Av = 9.7k** , Ab = 7k** Score=7+3 100% 115D 17f 1/6 9rs** GF Nab 5K (11 days)(c) ** DIST + WIN ** UP in class from 5K to 6.1k, BUT chk figures 232% 89B 14f 5/8 12rs GF Goo 15K (18 days) (UP in dist, Unpl) 145% 93C 14f 3/7 17rs GS Sal 9K (36 days)(g) (UP in dist, placed ?) .................................. (100%) Kombinacja,,.......................................................Form 7-4-1 (12**) sp lto 2/1J ln 68* Av = 4.7k, Ab = 17.3k** Score=5+2 97% 112D 16f 1/4 8rs Gd Str 5K (10 days) (Chk Dist + WIN **) UP in class from 5K to 6.1k IMPROVING *** 92% 89C 21f 4/33 11rs** Gd Kem 6K (107 days) (Down in dist lengths) 32% 62E 16f 7/39 13rs Hy Ncs 3K (145 days) (Chk Dist lengths) .................................. (45%) Shirazi,,.......................................................Form 5-1-3 (9**) sp lto 9/2 ln 6 Av = 3.3k, Ab = 3.5k Score=1+3 42% 81E 10f 3/1 14rs St Lin 3K (110 days) (UP in dist, PLACED **) UP in class from 3K to 6.1k, BUT chk figures 54% 79D 10f 1/nk 14rs St Lin 4K (138 days) (UP in dist, + WIN **) 37% 71E 10f 5/5 14rs St Lin 3K (156 days) (UP in dist, lengths) .................................. (27%) Maldoun,,.......................................................Form 5-3-1 (9**) sp lto 1/2F ln 3* Av = 5.3k, Ab = 5.5k Score=3+4 73% 84D 16f 1/1 12rs Gd Kel 5K (18 days) (Chk Dist + WIN **) UP in class from 5K to 6.1k IMPROVING *** 51% 98E 17f 3/3 13rs GF Her 3K (27 days) (** DIST PLACED **) 0% 01x 12f 5/1 7rs Sft Dea 8K (338 days) (UP in dist, lengths) .................................. (25%) |
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Guest
R.e Monturani It's a hell of a distance to get beat and at a fairly decent price,I wouldn't think a reversal would be possible But funnily enough i understand your point.  |
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Nessie
I'm not ignoring you my friend,With vdw there are a lot of things or factors that have to be taken into consideration he did actually mention distances won and beaten by,So that really is no great secret but what lies beneath it might be. R.e staking plans for dutching purposes either max's or cyberdetectives are both very good,What i normally do is split my stakes 5/5 6/4 7/3 8/2 a couple of times last week i dutched and got nearly the equivalent of 3/1 single so it is well worth pursuing.  |
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Guest
Hope you and yours are well and happy. Before you go can I ask some questions? On Friday 3.25 Epsom I had Black Sam Bellamy as the C/F with Warrsan 2nd C/F. I would have considered Warrsan a Roushayd if it had been the C/F though this may be wrong given what Fulham has posted. BSB had a marked preference for Soft going. Should the going preference in this case have been factored into the question of BSB being a form horse for the race hence making W the C/F? Today you mentioned Monturani as being a possible problem for Welsh Diva. I see the factor in its last race and also that it is a horse that needs a run. Are there any other factors you would be willing to disclose that highlight Monturani as a danger? Thanks for any help in advance All the best hedgehog |
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Forum Manager Member |
hi investor. Thanks. staking is good idea but the proof is in the pud so i will run it live.
Vdw did talk about dists etc. but pleasse give me a give to the bit thats underneath. just a hint. i need your help here. |
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Member |
Hedgehog - There was probably a case for making a book at Epsom in the Coronation Cup. BSBs form was not very exciting last time despite winning by so far, but from what?
Investor/HH - Consider more than just recent runs when weighing horses capabilities up. Monturani was expected by the markets to do much better than she did last time, where as Welsh Diva defied the market. Beware of what the markets were doing last time. One horse I will be backing today is Wild Spice just for info. |
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Member |
guest, may i also say thanks for your help in posting evaluations, hope you return.
mtoto, could you contact me thanks |
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Guest
I must miss loads of oppurtunities,I have had a look at Wild Spice and i,m not going to keep saying it but it's there to see.The thing that i DON'T do is go through every race,I stick mainly to the races as in Spells it all out do you look at them all. |
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Guest or Investor,
Was this a VDW selection? |
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Epiglotis
Like i said to Guest i follow the races set out in the text,So therefore my answer is no,But if you look at the form of all concerned in that race then Wild Spice had the attributes that are needed,But remember consistent form is not the same as the consistency rating,I wouldn't be suprised if Guest didn't give ESPERADO a good look either. |
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Member |
Thanks for the reply. Do you have an explanation for Wild Spice failing to either win or be placed?
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Forum Manager Member |
Investor are you going to help me?
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The Vital Spark Member  |
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I cant see any reason to think Wild Spice was even slightly likely to win that race, if that's a genuine VDW selection then in my considered opinion VDW is complete and utter rubbish.
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Epiglotis
Simple really,It unseated Mccoy end of story.If you have come to the conclusion that vdw is utter rubbish,Then there is no longer any need for you to contribute is there. |
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Investor,
I take then that anyone with negative views about VDW shouldn't, in your opinion, post their comments? Have a word with yourself will ya. |
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Member |
Did it have the race clearly won when he came off?
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Member |
According to the Post it fell when running third, not impressive.
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Member |
quote: All of which would be fine if you were offering a credible alternative strategy on this thread or elsewhere. However I don't see any evidence of it. You have decided that VDW is 'complete and utter rubbish' so do the rest of us a favour and take your 'Yaa Boo' style of debate elsewhere. Quite frankly I, and no doubt many others, are thoroughly fed up with your negative attitude. I doubt this'll do any good, but at least it gets things off my chest. Incidently, I don't consider that Wild Spice would have been a VDW selection. A beginners chase doesn't strike me as fertile ground for consistent, proven performers. I think you have to aim higher up the scale. but using that selection from a one liner at the end of Guest's message is hardly live ammunition for discrediting VDW. Rob |
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