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Posted
4.10 leic Russian Valour: This is by far the class horse in the race,Some may argue that he isn't consistent and also question the motives of the trainer.The horse was a very consistent 2yo and has run and won in far better class than most in this race.Johnston brings him out has a 3yo over 7f and 6f,Today back at his optimum trip and on ground that clearly suits and at 8/1 quoted in the r/p,I will be having a win and place double.Certainly can't see the horse out of the first 3 and has an excellent chance of being in the winners enclosure. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of walter pigeon
Posted
I certainly questioned Russian Valour`s trainers intentions from the "Is the prize big enough angle".
However, taking a look at future engagements indications suggest that Mr Johnston has chosen today`s race with a degree of intent, compared to Thursday`s at Doncaster.
A point of concern is the first-time blinkers?.
Having said that im also slightly puzzled as to why Continent is here today?.
 
Posts: 1853 | Registered: August 27, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Walter
I also questioned the is the prize big enough angle and normally i would let this type run.A majority of my stake has gone on the place at 10.5 the win and 2.35 the place i simply can't let it pass by,It could be a prep race or a sharpener but under today's conditions and in this lower class.Imo Russian valour has a good chance and i will be very suprised if the horse isn't at least placed. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Well. because of poor recent form figures, I was unable to see a "good" VDW pick today, but I agree that the 410 Leicester is just about the right race.

In this, I'd have to go for Speed Cop and Continent, myself.

Anyway, here are the betbetter ratings, which apparently, are very similar to compunter. They look to the top 6 in the betting forecast, consider win prize-money averages and last three positions for recent form.

7/09/2004 - Leicester - 4.10
manmatters.co.uk Conditions Stakes (Class C) (3yo+) (5f 2yds) (12 Runners)

Talbot Avenue
52

Russian Valour
47

Continent
45

Fromsong
38

Speed Cop
26

Magic Glade
22

Dragon Flyer
21

Efistorm
20

Absent Friends
16

Boleyn Castle
14

Hidden Dragon
9

Forest Rail
-1


Well, there you go!
I rejected Talbot on his prize money figures, but he is top RPR, and has the champ on board. He also has two ticks for recent form in postdata.

I think I'd sooner back Speed Cop EW, though.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Seanrua,
 
Posts: 1514 | Registered: April 23, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of greg
Posted
not a betting race for me but i think absent friends could gatecrash the party.
investor,all the best with your bets but if you read the rp this morning.mark johnston about russian valour,had knee chips removed after royal ascot and tailed off last 2 starts,basically johnston is saying in the post,he is not as good as he was
 
Posts: 973 | Registered: September 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Could efistorm - be "the lion in the bushes" ??

there is some good Continental form in there (on the wrong ground) - and it's not like Dettori to take a ride on "Dobbin" !!!
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
greg
Hence the run in lower class,If this horse shows anything like his 2 y old form he won't be far away.I hadn't actually read that article,But more often than not i take what trainers say with a pinch of salt.Returning him to 5f might just make the difference. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
Boleyn Castle 410L (a 5f specialist) is 22lbs off his last winning mark (46k). So far Ive managed to get £2.49 at 94/1 withanother £2.51 looking for a match. When the trainer is ready this will romp in wheresoever it is well placed.

PS Come on you VDW traditionalists surely its impossible for BC to win, lay the bet! (Another Lay Of The Day?)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Investor
Can't see how you make Russian Valour the class horse against Continent? Confused
IMO C would have these for breakfast on slower ground, although VDW did warn us about small field conditions races.
In the only other race worth considering 3.50L, Warden Complex looks the likely winner.
Luck to all.
 
Posts: 1512 | Registered: August 20, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Amazin !!!

Not only do we have Selections - before the off - we also have "Reasons" AND a genuine discussion - What is the thread coming to ???

The "High Priests" will be turning over in their graves !!!


Agree re "Warden Complex"
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Jib
You say that Boleyn Castle is a (5f specialist) wld you not put Russian Valour in the same category only in Group class

John d
I also agree re Warden Complex,But won't be playing in that race.Good luck if you are. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Incidently there is another horse that carries what i consider to be attributes of a winner and that is KING'S ROCK in the 3.10 at leic.Not a betting race but nevertheless it would be interesting to see how these horses fair in lower grade races. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
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Picture of john in brasil
Posted
Investor,

Boleyn Castles (7yo) last two runs have been at 6f, a distance he has never won at, as a result of them his OR has dropped 3lbs which isnt bad for a sprinter. His 5f wins have come at all ages.

Russian Valours' (3yo) 5f wins were as a 2yo. Unfortunately as RV belongs to the first crop we cant be sure if 5f will still be the ideal distance for him . In my opiniom being dropped from 7f to 6f and now 5f suggests the trainer is having difficulty preparing the horse to win.
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
Jib
Well i think it's clear now that Russian Valour is not the horse he was,Unfortunately i backed the horse early on.If i'd have waited for the live market there was obviously no confidence drifting from 10/1 to 14/1.Not a bet i would normally have but i thought dropped back to 5 he might bounce back.Never mind there always tomorrow.Incidently from looking through the form books it is quite evident that a majority of vdw horses end up in the first 4 in the live market,Don't know why but they do.This was another thing against R.V. Smile
 
Posts: 2832 | Registered: November 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
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Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Well ! -

Lets hope that Doncaster brings us some decent class racing to get our teeth into -

Last couple of days have been rubbish - I suppose its always the same in the run up to a big meeting ?

Todays 3 were all entered at Doncaster - but won't run - we now know why !!!

Big Grin
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of greg
Posted
investor,i agree with you in part,i also take what trainers say with a pinch of salt,but rarely are they that honest in saying the horse has lost the plot?
 
Posts: 973 | Registered: September 28, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
Rough stuff racing!

3 X 2nds from the 'well in' bets, and one w13/8, a 2nd 4/9, and a 3rd 16/1 from the 'well in' no bets!

Over 5f Boleyn Castle continues to be an obligatory bet.
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
The Vital Spark
Member
Picture of john in brasil
Posted
Russian Valour will come in at a lovely price sometime in the next year or so. However it will be best to wait to see how the other Fasliyev 3yo progeny performed at the end of the season. No doubt he will soon be having a date with the gelder!
 
Posts: 4717 | Registered: February 10, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Posted
For anybody interested here are some statistics regarding ability ratings.
The figures are from the races I evaluated in July this year.
As given previously there were 67 races evaluated, 56 won by horse in first 5/6 in betting f/c which equals 84%, 44 won by 3 most consistent from that f/c equals 66%.

Horses top rated on ability won 6 times 9%, 2nd on ability won 8 times 12%, 3rd won 10 times 15%, 4th won 8 times 12%. That is a total of 48% of races won by a horse from the top 4 on ability as shown in spells it all out.

Taking out all 2-y-o & 3-y-o only races the figures actually got worse. 45 all-aged races were left and only 44% were won by the top 4 on ability.

58 of the 67 races contained horses which correlated, i.e horses from the 3 most consistent lined up with horses from the top 4 on ability. 24 of these races were won by a correlating horse, which is 41%.
The total number of correlating horses was 120.

There were 33 races where the top rated on ability was also one of the 3 most consistent. Of these only 5 won which is 15%.
 
Posts: 67 | Registered: April 05, 2004Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Jolly Swagman
Member
Picture of Tuppenycat
Posted
Oh - "shit" - I was gonna do all that !!

May still do - to confirm it all - But

-

Its begining to look like -

The "Numeric Picture" - needs a bit more "Input" in order to Justify its Existance !!!

Who wants to argue that - "Black is White" ???

garstonof - are these the same high class races that you looked at earlier ??
 
Posts: 2359 | Registered: June 17, 2002Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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