TC,

If I was you I'd buy a wreath as the CR looks like it has been laid out as a punters approach.

Jd, mentioned that the problem could be that racing has changed, and he is without doubt absolutely on the target here.

The anmount of info available at a button touch means that the first 5/6 in the betting are going to be a far greater slice of the book than the old days when bets were made in blissfull ignorance of factors that we, today, regard as vital.

I think it is EpiG that likes to remind us that we are infact betting against each other with the bookie taking his slice for his efforts. Its just that nowadays the money is much smarter than it was.

To make money now the punter has to get away from 'form' aspect and approximate himself to the 'human' one.

TC,

If I was you I'd buy a wreath as the CR looks like it has been laid out as a punters approach.

Jd, mentioned that the problem could be that racing has changed, and he is without doubt absolutely on the target here.

The anmount of info available at a button touch means that the first 5/6 in the betting are going to be a far greater slice of the book than the old days when bets were made in blissfull ignorance of factors that we, today, regard as vital.

I think it is EpiG that likes to remind us that we are infact betting against each other with the bookie taking his slice for his efforts. Its just that nowadays the money is much smarter than

Jib

I have the perfect horse racing method.

First of all, we must chuck logic out of the window, as we're too smart to believe that horse racing lends itself to anything so mundane.
Next we will dispense with consistency, as we know consistent horses don't win races.
Then we will ignore class, when was the last time the best horse actually won a race?
We will also ditch capability, as we know that if a horse is trying, it can win over any distance or ground, and in any class.
The trainers intentions can also be diposed of, as, in the light of the above, we have nothing to guide us as to what they may be.
Sounds good so far?
On then to the perfect method, but do try to keep it to yourself.

Back only in virtual racing,and always support the horse with the duracell batteries!

Johnd

I have looked at the VDW method and believe it to be very logical. Indeed, using the priciples is for me generally the way I would go about assessing races. But that is not to say that I don't think there are other ways of assessing races. And it doesn't mean that I believe everything in the VDW writings to be given with complete unselfish wholeheartedness.

However, much as some people on here may not like it, JIB puts up winning horses using his own logical methods. His horse list threads do make a profit (the M&M thread on RSUK made 80 points last NH season).

He gives reasons for the selections and, unlike many posters on VDW threads, they are done before the off.

Therefore, even though the VDW method appeals to me, I do think that a post intimating that JIB doesn't use sound and logical principles, must make John one of the luckiest punters out there.

The truth of the matter is that JIB has more imagination than most of us. And some of us hate that.

BlackCat

Blackcat,

some good points there, however this is a vdw thread.

JIB's selections have more in common with dell burgess selections than VDW, but we dont see him here spouting off about VDW.

He just wants to muddy the water.

MAKE NO MISTAKE!

1.50 Don Captain Hurricane looks the one to beat in this one,Coming out of class 1005 in a bog in france but showing a s/f of 96.The ground and distance aren't a problem and should go close.2 other horses that interest me in this race are the osborne trained Persian Rock and Imperial Sound it will be interesting to see how that pair get on.I wouldn't put anybody off having a few bob on Captain Hurricane but not for me.

3.00 don Astrocharm is clearly in form winning lto at goodwood class 29 over 1 mile 6 and the ground not a problem,But there are horses that have been running in higher class that could throw a spanner in the works.NamelyEchoes in Etenity.

4.00 epsom Cold turkey has the figures but there are dangers in Mango Mischief and Portmanteau,Zonergem is coming out of class 580 but with a lot more weight over an extra 2 furlongs.Too many if's and buts for me

4.35 epsom I feel that Haisayda should go close but have doubts over the ground and the trip.

So a blank day for me,Roll on tomorrow.

Hi Barney

Yes, I have wondered why John posts on the VDW thread when he does seem anti-vdw. But I would also say that having looked back over many old posts here, there has been much "mystic" fog laid over the already muddy waters by vdw gurus, without the benefit of pre-race selections to support their views (albeit with the best of intentions).

Perhaps if JIB and others saw working, profitable,successful pre-race examples, they may alter their opinions. However, I don't see that happening!

I have what I think is a fairly sound view of what would be a VDW type selection, but I wouldn't obtain more than a 40-45% success rate on single win bets. Are others attaining the 80-85%? I suspect not - hence the reluctance to post selctions pre-race.

I think what TC is doing is fantastic. Working through various illustrations of VDW's writings using todays horses, and analysing the results. And that is exactly what Mr. Van der Wheil advocated people should do too - not just take the suggestions on trust.

BlackCat

nice to see an unbiased view black cat.
barmy,
muddy the waters,was it ever clear before jib posted?

2.25 Don -

I can't even begin to form an opinion on this race !

I initialy looked at the entries, and thought - Nichols is targetting this race - so why not back all 4 of his runners ! - But d'ynow what - I checked, and -

His record in 4yo Handicaps at Doncaster is - 1 from 109 !!! - 1%

I have heard it suggested that he is using this a a prep race for "Funfair Wayne" for the Ayr Gold Cup !

Since this is Barry Hills favourite course I think I will take a chance with "Fun to Ride" - at -"Fun Stakes" - (It has a Top Massey Max fig and could have been targeted at this )

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

BC,

Your kind words are overwhelming. Thank you!

Jd,

you wont have to turn many pages to see me ranting on about the AR (I now have support here and on other fora about its fragility) or the CR.

However you will have to look v hard to find me condemning class or speed. Weight attracts mixed comments depending on whether it refers to mass (and what type of mass) or to class in the form of the OR.

For whatever their debateable worth, I dont see how my selections can be accused of muddying the waters if the reasons for their selections are clearly stated before the off. Something the vdw traditionalists should try a little more of, to see who could be muddying whose waters.

I post on this thread because the great mistake of vdwology is to overstudy the horse and to understudy the 'reasoning' behind its placings.

Form has to be interpreted and the first thing to realise is that 90% of it is worthless.

Well, I made the VDW race to be the 300 Doncaster.

Looking only at the first six in the RP betting forecast, I select

Bowstring and Selebela as my possible VDW candidates.

The positives for this pair are prize money and last three finishing positions.

Gosden has a better record than Cumani in this class of racing.

However, my own selection in the race would be Desert Royalty; I like jockey and trainer.

JIB,
at last something worthwhile.

90% of interpretations of form are worthless.

YEE HA

quote:

---

I post on this thread because the great mistake of vdwology is to overstudy the horse and to understudy the 'reasoning' behind its placings.

---

Be assured JIB - I value your contributions just for the balance that you provide in terms of this important factor !

Not that VDW didn't place his own emphasis in this area - he continualy refered to It.

As you say - there has been a long term tendancy on this thread to place emphasis on the numerical picture and to dismiss as irrelevant, other areas of his writing - It be nice to see more discussion of the other ideas that he propounded !!

As you have frequently pointed out he raised the subject of "lists" - I don't see that it can be claimed that your postings on this subject - are "Unrelated" to VDW

I'm not going to go into any long winded argument,But consistent horses do win races.Whch is evident on most racing days.But then again consistency goes beyond the last 3 placings of the horse.And i must be honest with you all,The ability rating is a pain in my side and stops me from having bets,The thing is a lot of the bloody things win.Any way going back to consistency,Iv'e just watched Henry Candy's horse trot up in the big race at donny.I left it off my race comments this morning purely because of the class that it had come out of.Everything was right for the horse from a vdw perspective and of course it had form figures if 11,The other thing that often astounds me (and i mentioned this on the other forum) is when there is a large gap in the market in class c and above races like there was today 13/8 9/2 16/1 that's nearly a 12 point gap in the mark.Well over 70% of the time one of them will win,Good dutching material though.But i'm affraid if my head had been on the block i would have plumped for Captain Hurricane.Which ran like a f.....g donkey,Well enough of my ramblings i'll speak later.

on the other hand "Halmahera" had form figs of 569 - yet was a perfect example of a superb training performance and trainer intentions - in that the horse was targetted simply to win this race, and did so -

Was the sign on the front of the bus or what ???

I read the sign, but didn't believe it - more fool me !!

I did warn, well before the off, that Continents form was likely to be worthless, (I dont have the card to hand but I know he was AR1).

I also gave the reason why Continents form was likely to be worthless:

From the Donkey Register 07-09-04 02:00 am:

Continent 410L looks a bit too obvious for a tricky character like Dandy Nichols. No bet.

TC,

That is why we should first concentrate on a few quality trainers and learn their pecadillos.

Sun Tzus' The Art Of War is the greatest racing book ever written.

The Art Of War

JIB - we need a few "Spies" - they are the greatest asset !

Actualy -re trainers - VDW said exactly the same !!!

Incidently Going back to consistency.Halmahera has won the portland twice so instead os figures of 069 you could also look at it has 1,1 if you get my drift.

Jib
Recent horse with decent cons ratings
Trojan Wolf 212 w 7/4
Mr tambourine man 131 lost
Suez 1 (3) w 8/11
Sendintank 111 w 4/5
Croc an oir 211 lost (2nd 9/2)
Satchem 211 w 3/1
Asaleeb 211 lost
Tante Rose -11 w 10/1
St petersberg 213 Grand passion outclassed by with reason 121-0 if the form of this horse is checked out you can forget the 0 pitched way to high but had shown decent form in group company prior to that race.

i's knowing or trying to understand which ones to support that is the hard part but they do come along and they do win.Incidently you mentioned that continent had the highest ab rating if that's what AR1 means.That's all well and good if the horse is in form.