Petanque 225Fis laughing at this lot with these weights.

Jonjos Spike And Divel 500W is also well in, though whether we get a backable price (min. 3/1) Im unsure.

Tc
Re consistency:

Have had another look at your figures, and couldn't argue with the conclusion that, taking all races class C and above, 53% is a very modest strike rate.
However, I am still not sure that the figures are being compiled along the lines of 'spells it all out', and that Garstonf's figures are much nearer to the truth.
Perhaps he could enlarge upon the criteria he used in selecting the races?
For those who remain convinced that consistency is unimportant, I did this little exercise from yesterday's results. Inconclusive, and far from exhaustive, but surely food for thought.

There were 5 races that fitted my understanding of the perameters from SIAO. The only considerations were the 3 most consistent from first 5/6 in betting.

HAYDOCK

1st race 1st & 2nd
2nd race 2nd,3rd, & 4th
3rd race 1st & 2nd

KEMPTON

2nd race 1st & 2nd
3rd race 1st,2nd,& 3rd. (4 rnrs)

A total of 4 winners and 8 places from 16 rnrs. Hmmmm!

Incidentally, there is only one race, 4.20,York Sunday, that fits the criteria.

From the 1st 6 in the betting, the 3 most consistent are:

STRANGELY BROWN
MAGIC COMBINATION
JEEPSTAR

If I were allowed to add the highly consistent SUALDA to those 3, I would bet good money that I would have the winner and at least one placed horse.

Jd,

SR isnt the problem.

The ist 5/6 in the betting removes most of the chance of profit. If you are going to bet from the 1st 5/6 you re going to have to be specific about your selections.

Good recent form has been a money loser since Clive Holt 'spelt it out'.

See Gummys - Racing News - for full writeup -


Rodgers, 35, is adamant the only way to make money out of betting on horses is through 'contacts', although he says on his website: 'I used to envy a close friend of mine who was an avid form student, always burning the midnight oil in the quest for winners. He would ring me two or three times a week and tell me what he was backing that day. I never kept any records, but suffice to say the results were phenomenal. The one thing he had that I lacked was discipline. Unfortunately, the selections were too few and far between for me. I needed to be betting every day which, as many of you know, is a recipe for disaster.'

But with the advent of the betting exchanges, Rodgers says poring over the form book does not work so well these days. It is better to go with the info, he claims. 'Even my close friend has had to concede that the game has changed over the past few years and that the form book is only of use in about 20 per cent of all races run, these being the black-type [top-class] races and major handicaps

I was going to have a go at looking at the results from the principle meetings and - the most valuable races of the day - since Aug 8 - as per VDW - but I didn't make note of them as I went along - Anyone have this info - or know how to backtrack easily ???

Quick look at York card bringinging in ratings -

1st 5 in betting - (not using 3 most const) but looking for a 1st or 2nd in last three runs (preferably more) - but also 2 sets of ratings which place the horse at the top !

Qualifiers are -

2.35 the prince
3.10 yorkshire blue
4.20 sualda
4.50 ridder
5.20 mcqeen

a place bet on each.

Daft day to try this stunt !!

just gone to bettfair to put my money on the 2.35 race - and seen 5 non runners ! - something is wrong !

I am going to keep my money in my pocket - and just watch !!

w11/4, and L so far...more pisstaking profit on the day!

And the last one goes in at 11/4! +4.5pts on the day.

Barney tell us what the secret of your success is? Is the missing link really the 'Giro Cheque'?

All we need now - is a bit of aftertiming - to tell us how - "barman" was a laid on certainty in the 4.20 !!

I know - but I'm not telling !

Read the "Books"

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Tc

Re your class breakdowns on page 697
In general, I only look at races that VDW advised, basically the richest races at a meeting but absolutely nothing below Class C (now nothing below Class 2). Also from a personal point of view I have knocked sprint races on the head.

From your figures, if I have worked them out correctly, you have;

Class A-C
Consistent horses 67 races - 36 winners - 54%

Class D-G
Consistent horses 167 races - 77 winners - 46%

Yet the betting forecast percentages are almost identical, Class A-C 76% and Class D-G 77%.

Your highest percentages seem to come from Class B races. Now this is a surprise to me, because Class B races are usually large field, high class handicaps. I have not checked my records for this particular type of race, so that is something for me to do in the future.

The survey I gave previously, for flat racing, resulted in about 61% winners from the three most consistent during the season. Now this may not seem a very good percentage to support a worthwhile horse racing method. So lets not forget the good betting propositions are shown up by other mysterious considerations.

Marysienka 300N is well in but its tight.

Deuxieme 410B is well in too but the cobnditions do not suit. No bet.

Rangoon 450W is well in and has the right conditions to run well.

Tc
That one went totally pear shaped, didn't it

I don't have all the information you require, about 4 RP's missing for August. However, as I sorted through them, I decided to check the results for the 4 Saturdays in August.
Apart from the Ebor meeting, this covers most of the better races, and has the added advantage of ignoring the 10k races that often feature midweek.
Using VDW principles, the following are the results. Minor meetings were ignored, also the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot, as all races were the same class and value.

August 7
NEWM 2.50 w6/1
HAYD 2.30 W1/1
3.00 L
REDC 2.35 L

AUGUST 14
NEWM 2.45 W 4/1
NEWB 2.50 W 9/2
3.00 W 3/10
RIP 3.45 L

AUGUST 21
N.ABB 6.35 W 0/3
CHST 3.15 W 3/1
SAND 2.15 W 9/2
3.25 W 2/1

AUGUST 28
WIND 6.35 W 5/1
BEV 3.15 L
NEWM 3.30 W3/1
GDWD 2.00 W5/4
3.05 W4/1

Early days yet, but already a different picture begins to emerge?

18 races,14 wnrs = 78%

ps Perhaps I should point out that, although minor meetings were ignored, the included results from such as Newton Abbot, Windsor, etc were for unusually high class races, from memory, the lowest being a 17klisted race.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

If you think that this thread contains a bit of "Invective" - then - try this one !!!


http://www.racing-systems.co.uk/cgi-bin/boardp/discussion.pl?forum=2&discussion=4408



Fertile fields - for - Some "Maybe" ???

tc

Couple of old 'friends' on there who haven't changed a bit.

johnd, garstonf -

looks like these are "The Waters" - that we should be "fishing" in !

Should we move on to "Other Considerations " ???

tc

Revenir 430C is well in, and dropped back to 7f looks well placed. A bet.

Magnetic Pole 500C is also well in, but Spectrum progeny are vulnerable at 12f. No bet.

Flamboyant Lad 340L is not just well in in hes also well placed too. A bet.

Great Exhibition 320L is well in and well placed too. A bet.

Red Skelton 450L is v well in, but isnt necessarilly well placed. No bet.

Dundry 520L is well in too but Bin Ajwaad progeny are v vulnerable at 12f (3%SR) whilst at 11f the SR is 16% and 14f 18%! No bet

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,